|
|
Post by chez23 on Sept 22, 2015 14:34:31 GMT -5
new to all this SOCON football and just wondering what it will take for Mercer to become an annual favorite in the SOCON? They seem to have all the tools to be in the top 3, location, facilites, commitment and great campus etc. I know only third year back in football but it is Georgia and a wealth of talent comes from that state!
|
|
|
|
Post by MUfan on Sept 22, 2015 14:54:29 GMT -5
Time.
|
|
|
|
Post by BearDownMU on Sept 22, 2015 15:04:29 GMT -5
It's all about wins. We can get into pissing matches with other schools and publications that put out power rankings and everything else. But all that really matters is the standings at the end of the year. We played hard last year and performed better than a lot of people thought we would. And I think we have performed tons better than most other startups, but we were still only 1-6 in conference games last year.
When we start winning 5 or 6 conference games a year, that's when people start seriously looking at us as a contender.
|
|
|
|
Post by bear38 on Sept 22, 2015 15:15:36 GMT -5
new to all this SOCON football and just wondering what it will take for Mercer to become an annual favorite in the SOCON? They seem to have all the tools to be in the top 3, location, facilites, commitment and great campus etc. I know only third year back in football but it is Georgia and a wealth of talent comes from that state! Keep in mind that Mercer is still not up to full scholarships compared to the other SoCon teams. They will be next year but the first two recruiting classes for Mercer were non scholarship classses. But if you factor in the ability to redshirt, you would have give Mercer 5 years of scholarships to be equal or in parity as it relates to scholarships with the other SoCon teams. Five years of scholarships would be in 2017. However, given the other factors that you mentioned above, it would not surprise me to see Mercer get there much sooner. For instance, most non Mercer observers did not think that Mercer would be competitive last year. (i.e. look at how ETSU is struggling out of the gate in their first year after having one practice year). UTC, Samford, Furman and Citadel might beg to differ. Some of the non Mercer SoCon observers think that Mercer is one year away from competing for the championship. I think they base this on having so few seniors this year. |
|
|
|
Post by FUBeAR on Sept 22, 2015 20:56:40 GMT -5
A couple of points regarding the prior posts. FIRST - Yes - Mercer is in GA, which, though 38 may disagree, is TOPS in this region in terms of HS Football talent...but, dangit, Chatt, Sammy, FU, WCU, Woffy, and El Cid already figured that out prior to Mercer starting football...Let's take a look... | SoCon Team | GA Players on Roster | GA Players on Most Recent O/D 2-Deep | | Mercer | 76 | 28 | | Chattanooga | 29 | 22 | | Furman | 27 | 16 | | Samford | 31 | 6 | | Wofford | 21 | 12 | | The Citadel | 21 | 12 | | Western Carolina | 25 | 15 | | VMI | 4 | 3 | | ETSU | 6 | 2 | | Totals | 240 | 116 |
If we could just get Mercer Grad and the Governor of GA, Nathan Deal, to enact a quite just & permanent Executive Order prohibiting those interlopers from taking our Georgia boys away to their heathen lands, then there will be no question of Mercer's SoCon dominance in the future. I'm not sure he will do that, but I'm almost positive that President Underwood and Coach Lamb have at least asked him about it. But, seriously, now that Mercer is an established program, how many of the Recruiting Wars for those other 164 Georgia boys, including 88 'contributors' will Mercer win in the future. Now, it's true that there a few schools on that list which can get a few players in school that Mercer can't, so that will take a few off the top...and there might be a few which want to play soldier really bad, so the Bears will lose a few more, but that still leaves a lot to choose from and Mercer will win more of those recruiting battles next year than they won last year, but not as many as they will win the year after that. Then the Bears are also able to cherry pick a few from FL, TN, AL, SC, and NC. Those battles may be tougher than the ones they will face in GA, but they will win their fair share of non-Georgians also. By the way, that Samford # of GA Players and # of Contributors is interesting isn't it? I think it means some part of 2 things...The Bullpups aren't winning the battles for the best SoCon-type players coming out of GA AND/OR they have a bunch of walk-ons from the affluent areas of GA who can afford tuition @ Samford; so using football to actually add to enrollment, when they really don't have much of a chance of playing - a version of the Mt. Union model (over 200 on their roster at a D3 School). I noticed Sammy does have the most number of players listed on their roster (Wofford has a lot also)...as many as 30 or so more than most SoCon schools. Something's 'up' with that number - B'Ham is about the same distance from the talent-rich ATL area as FU, Chatt, and WCU. Maybe not...just whenever I see an 'outlier' like that, it always makes me say...Hmmmm??? SECOND POINT - The Mercer scholarship number 'disadvantage' at present, to the rest of the SoCon is very close, mathematically, to the 'disadvantage' that FCS schools have to FBS programs. 63 is 74% of 85 and 50 is 79% of 63. So, every game vs. an FCS School (except Stetson & ETSU (this year)) for Mercer is akin to the 1 or 2 'money' games that FCS schools play. To win those games, established FCS programs must outplay (play better, play harder) than the other team AND they must execute better. No mistakes! Even then, as we saw vs. TTU - Almost no mistakes (No turnovers | 1 legitimate penalty for 5 yards | 1 completely bogus/incorrect official's call for 5 yards), kid's playing their butts off (Coach Lamb quote), and Mercer STILL didn't win due to ineffective execution in the red zone AND having our top 2 receivers out (3 if you remember we lost JT Palmer to Law School's requirements just before the season started) and an All-SoCon CB OUT. It's a tall task for the Bears every week, but as Coach Watson Brown said on the OVC Conference Call today, when asked about the Bears by a Jacksonville State beat writer (hmmm?): "Mercer is a very good football team. I mean everybody's gonna get to catch a piece of them now; well, good luck; they're a good football team!" |
|
|
|
Post by bear38 on Sept 22, 2015 21:19:50 GMT -5
As it relates to GA high school football, the numbers don't lie. GA is full of HS talent. But given that, I sure was surprised to see a small 3A team from Nashville come down to Atlanta and beat up on a nationally ranked 6 or 7A team with multiple D1 signees. Made me wonder.
|
|
|
|
Post by chez23 on Sept 23, 2015 9:25:33 GMT -5
Mercer is doing well and yes they need to win games... and win most comference games. If it was me I be doing whatever I could to get "talent" to Mercer now and not 5 years from now. Mercer need to establish itself now so its sets the tone of the program for years to come. Cant be losing games to teams like TTU anymore...thats unacceptable Need to win this year and especially next year with scholarships expanding. If MU is serious about building a powerhouse franchise then they need to go after it now and set the tone for years to come. Sell the program and the campus to 3 stars and expand the stadium to show the long term commitment is valid. They must go at no worse 4-3 in conference this year...going 2-5 or 3-4 isnt good enough.
|
|
|
|
Post by FUBeAR on Sept 23, 2015 9:58:29 GMT -5
They must go at no worse 4-3 in conference this year...going 2-5 or 3-4 isnt good enough. So, noting the difference in number of scholarships I cited in my earlier post; by extension then, you're saying that FCS Schools should win at least 57% of their games against FBS schools and anything less is unacceptable. I don't have the stats for 2014 and 2015 YTD, but the historical record of FBS schools vs. FCS schools thru 2013 is 2028-423-18 (.824). The converse of that is that FCS schools' winning % is .176 or 17.6% of the time...That translates to an 'expected wins' for the Bears vs. 9 full scholarship teams this year (ETSU & Stetson are not Full Schollie - VMI & Wofford will SAY that they aren't, but they are...and if they're not, they should be) is 1.58...round up to 2. So, the expected record, based on the schollie disadvantage would be 2 (ETSU & Stetson) + 2 'others' = 4 wins & 7 losses. Since they lost an OOC already, that means they need to win at least 1 SoCon game to hit 'expected' level this year. BUT, you are saying anything less than over 3 times the success record of schools with a similar disadvantage is completely unacceptable. That's a fairly high bar you are setting for the Bears. I think a 2-5 SoCon record would be 'acceptable.' I would HATE all 5 of those L's with a passion and feel like fighting someone after each of them. Right, BDMU? But, 2-5 shows improvement from last season, although with the OOC loss to TTU, that would mean, most likely, a 5-6 overall record, which is not an improvement.... So, 3-4 in the SoCon and 6-5 overall would be, IMHO, a reasonably successful season for this year's Bears. That said, I know the players and coaches expectation, at this point is 7-0 SoCon, 10-1 Overall regular season + Playoffs and I will be cheering my Ball State U's off at every game for them to achieve that! |
|
|
|
Post by jackal on Sept 23, 2015 10:07:33 GMT -5
Mercer is doing well and yes they need to win games... and win most comference games. If it was me I be doing whatever I could to get "talent" to Mercer now and not 5 years from now. Mercer need to establish itself now so its sets the tone of the program for years to come. Cant be losing games to teams like TTU anymore...thats unacceptable Need to win this year and especially next year with scholarships expanding. If MU is serious about building a powerhouse franchise then they need to go after it now and set the tone for years to come. Sell the program and the campus to 3 stars and expand the stadium to show the long term commitment is valid. They must go at no worse 4-3 in conference this year...going 2-5 or 3-4 isnt good enough. As I noted before, with a tougher schedule this season and with the SoCon coming out of the weird "transition year" last season, Mercer could theoretically have a worse record than they did in 2014 and still be markedly improved as a team. |
|
|
|
Post by BearDownMU on Sept 23, 2015 13:54:39 GMT -5
Mercer is doing well and yes they need to win games... and win most comference games. If it was me I be doing whatever I could to get "talent" to Mercer now and not 5 years from now. Mercer need to establish itself now so its sets the tone of the program for years to come. Cant be losing games to teams like TTU anymore...thats unacceptable Need to win this year and especially next year with scholarships expanding. If MU is serious about building a powerhouse franchise then they need to go after it now and set the tone for years to come. Sell the program and the campus to 3 stars and expand the stadium to show the long term commitment is valid. They must go at no worse 4-3 in conference this year...going 2-5 or 3-4 isnt good enough. A few things: First off, I'm pretty sure everyone at Mercer is working just as hard as they can to get the best talent they can to come play football. So, while I appreciate the "work harder" idea, I'm sure everyone is working hard. Secondly, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I think we need to try and live in the realm of realistic. We've had 2 scholarship recruiting classes, moved into a scholarship conference 1 year after playing actual games in a non-scholarship league, and are playing all fully scholarshipped programs. We have done really well thus far and I'm proud of how far we've come so quickly, but suggesting a winning record in the conference (4-3) or better is the only thing that is acceptable for the program is a little bit over the top, in my opinion. As far as 3 stars go, it's not like FCS programs are snagging up 3 stars left and right. That sounds great, and sure, you may pick one up from time to time, but I just don't think it's the norm. I may be wrong, as FCS recruits aren't tracked like FBS ones are, but it ain't easy. Finally, let's look at just how hard it is to be successful as a startup program. I pulled the records of every startup team in the NCAA whose first year was from 2008-2012. Here is the list, sorted by winning percentage. Granted, some have a bigger sample size, but I think this chart exhibits just how hard it is to win games when you are brand new. Also, it's worth noting that most of these teams haven't changed classifications like we have. Oh, and guess who's 5th best.  |
|
|
|
Post by chez23 on Sept 24, 2015 13:07:53 GMT -5
Great info and comments! I understand the reality of the situation; however, all I am saying is Mercer cannot afford to take a step back this year in the SOCON and needs to show a lot of improvment now for the future. If Mercer goes 2-5 in SOCON then what have they really accomplished this yeat and then it takes longer to build the program. Strike now when you are young and people arent expecting much so you have the spot light and then recruits will come. In another post COA is unfortunatley a major component in building a winning program and I sure hope MU offers COA. MU cant shy away from the current conditions in CFB.
|
|
MU22
Baby Bear
Posts: 38
|
Post by MU22 on Sept 29, 2015 19:40:16 GMT -5
Here's the mark Mercer must hit to improve: Win at least 2 of 3 OOC games, and lose no more than 2 SoCon games. To my knowledge, no team with that resume has ever been excluded from the I-AA/FCS playoffs.
With the playoffs now expanded to 24 teams, playoff participation is a must to building up the program. Make the playoffs and the coaching staff can capitalize in recruiting in addition to the advantages listed by the original poster. That's the next step for the Bears. They'll get there at this rate, but I agree with jackal that this year isn't a good barometer. We'll probably have a worse record despite growth with the team. I base that primarily on how our schedule is structured this year.
Hopefully we'll return the favor to WCU on the road, but Cullowhee is a tough place to play. Chattanooga and Samford both will be tough games at home. Win one of those three and the others and the Bears will make the playoffs.
|
|
|
|
Post by jackal on Sept 30, 2015 4:37:34 GMT -5
Here's the mark Mercer must hit to improve: Win at least 2 of 3 OOC games, and lose no more than 2 SoCon games. To my knowledge, no team with that resume has ever been excluded from the I-AA/FCS playoffs. With the playoffs now expanded to 24 teams, playoff participation is a must to building up the program. Make the playoffs and the coaching staff can capitalize in recruiting in addition to the advantages listed by the original poster. That's the next step for the Bears. They'll get there at this rate, but I agree with jackal that this year isn't a good barometer. We'll probably have a worse record despite growth with the team. I base that primarily on how our schedule is structured this year. Hopefully we'll return the favor to WCU on the road, but Cullowhee is a tough place to play. Chattanooga and Samford both will be tough games at home. Win one of those three and the others and the Bears will make the playoffs. A strong goal, but not guaranteed of playoffs. Just a few examples come to mind: 2006 Wofford went 5-2 and did not make the post season. I think many FCS fans consider 2004 particularly egregious when Wofford went 8-3 and ranked in the top 20 and didn't make the field. Also happened just a few years ago to UTC in 2013, who went 8-4 and actually shared in the conference title but was left home in the post season in favor of Samford and Furman. This goes without saying, but the best bet is to handle your business and take it out of the selection committee's hands. |
|
|
|
Post by chez23 on Sept 30, 2015 13:12:57 GMT -5
Win you home games and establish dominance there and then split your road wins....
|
|
MU22
Baby Bear
Posts: 38
|
Post by MU22 on Oct 1, 2015 21:55:39 GMT -5
Here's the mark Mercer must hit to improve: Win at least 2 of 3 OOC games, and lose no more than 2 SoCon games. To my knowledge, no team with that resume has ever been excluded from the I-AA/FCS playoffs. With the playoffs now expanded to 24 teams, playoff participation is a must to building up the program. Make the playoffs and the coaching staff can capitalize in recruiting in addition to the advantages listed by the original poster. That's the next step for the Bears. They'll get there at this rate, but I agree with jackal that this year isn't a good barometer. We'll probably have a worse record despite growth with the team. I base that primarily on how our schedule is structured this year. Hopefully we'll return the favor to WCU on the road, but Cullowhee is a tough place to play. Chattanooga and Samford both will be tough games at home. Win one of those three and the others and the Bears will make the playoffs. A strong goal, but not guaranteed of playoffs. Just a few examples come to mind: 2006 Wofford went 5-2 and did not make the post season. I think many FCS fans consider 2004 particularly egregious when Wofford went 8-3 and ranked in the top 20 and didn't make the field. Also happened just a few years ago to UTC in 2013, who went 8-4 and actually shared in the conference title but was left home in the post season in favor of Samford and Furman. This goes without saying, but the best bet is to handle your business and take it out of the selection committee's hands. Perhaps I should have been more descriptive to include all D1 competition. Those Wofford teams you mention all had D2 or NAIA opponents those years (except 2006). Wofford was the third SoCon team in 2004 and that was before the playoffs were expanded. That 2006 team Wofford lost 2 OOC games, as I mentioned if you win 2 OOC games and lose no more than 2 SoCon games that is a near virtual lock. Chattanooga was an interesting case. They played 12 games, splitting their OOC with a 2 and 2 mark. Losing late at Samford was the deal breaker for an at large. |
|
