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Post by FUBeAR on May 5, 2017 14:18:18 GMT -5
Here's what Mr. Massey thinks...  Mercer Schedule / Projected Results| Date | Opponent | Opponent Rank
(All Schools) | Points
for Mercer | Points
Against Mercer | Probability of
Mercer Winning | Overall
Record | SoCon
Record | Thu 8-31
| Jacksonville
| 332 | 42 | 21 | 91% | 1-0 | 0-0 | | Sat 9-9 | Wofford | 110 | 17 | 27 | 25% | 1-1 | 0-1 | | Sat 9-16 | at Auburn | 18 | 7 | 42 | 1% | 1-2 | 0-1 | | Sat 9-23 | at ETSU | 279 | 28 | 16 | 79% | 2-2 | 1-1 | | Sat 9-30 | VMI | 228 | 28 | 21 | 72% | 3-2 | 2-1 | Sat 10-07
| at Citadel | 130 | 21 | 30 | 26% | 3-3 | 2-2 | Sat 10-14
| Chattanooga | 117
| 23 | 31
| 27%
| 3-4 | 2-3 | | Sat 10-21 | at Furman | 168
| 27 | 30 | 41%
| 3-5 | 2-4 | Sat 11-04
| Samford
| 143 | 31 | 34
| 40%
| 3-6 | 2-5 | | Sat 11-11 | at W Carolina | 208 | 31
| 28
| 56%
| 4-6 | 3-5 | Sat 11-18
| at Alabama | 1 | 0 | 49 | 0% | 4-7 | 3-5 |
What do you think? Are Mr. Massey's Rankings / Projections accurate? |
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on May 6, 2017 13:00:33 GMT -5
That seems a little low to me. I know we lost a lot in terms of senior leadership/experience, but we also had a pretty good offseason in terms of recruiting and a new strength coach that seems to be getting everyone right.
I'm not going to predict the other teams' records, but this is what I think for us:
Jacksonville - W: Good warm up for the Bears. Probably not as good as the last time we saw them and we've definitely improved.
Wofford - W: Bears finally get a win over the terriers. Extra time to prepare helps.
Auburn - L: Put up a better fight than most expect, but don't have the depth/speed.
ETSU - W: First trip to their place, closer than expected, but we get the W.
VMI - W: Replacing Al Cobb is easier said than done.
Citadel - L: Somehow lose by half a point.
Chattanooga - W: Lost coach and lots of talent, but will be back.
Furman - W: 1st year of the rebuild, still close.
Sam.(Samford) - W: We figure out their 5 yard passing offense BEFORE the game.
W.Carolina - W: Get a lead and are able to hold it this time.
Alabama - L: See Auburn, but depth and speed are a lot better.
8-3, 7-1 in the conference.
This is assuming a healthy team that plays up to its abilities with minimal mistakes.
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Post by FUBeAR on May 6, 2017 16:56:09 GMT -5
Citadel - L: Somehow lose by half a point.  Great post though. Nice game-by-game breakdown. Hard to argue with any of your logic. 8-3/7-1 means definite Playoffs and, quite possibly, a SoCon Championship. Playoff game... With that record against that schedule, is it enough for Mercer to get a Top 8 Seed and a 1st round bye/2nd round Home Game? If not, does Mercer bid enough to get a 1st round Home Game? Recognizing there's extremely limited data to make the call, if Mercer makes the Playoffs AND gets a Home Game, what % chance of winning a 1st (or 2nd) round game would you (or anyone else) give the Bears? Anyone else want to make a game-by-game Season prediction? |
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Post by MUfan on May 7, 2017 10:21:48 GMT -5
Don't know what to expect this year, especially on offense.
Hoping for a winning record.
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Post by BearDownMU on May 15, 2017 12:49:57 GMT -5
Citadel - L: Somehow lose by half a point. Great post though. Nice game-by-game breakdown. Hard to argue with any of your logic. 8-3/7-1 means definite Playoffs and, quite possibly, a SoCon Championship. Playoff game... With that record against that schedule, is it enough for Mercer to get a Top 8 Seed and a 1st round bye/2nd round Home Game? If not, does Mercer bid enough to get a 1st round Home Game? Recognizing there's extremely limited data to make the call, if Mercer makes the Playoffs AND gets a Home Game, what % chance of winning a 1st (or 2nd) round game would you (or anyone else) give the Bears? Anyone else want to make a game-by-game Season prediction? My guess would be, when we find ourselves in a position to host an FCS playoff game, President Underwood will do everything in his purview to secure hosting. |
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Post by jackal on May 27, 2017 6:29:22 GMT -5
Great post though. Nice game-by-game breakdown. Hard to argue with any of your logic. 8-3/7-1 means definite Playoffs and, quite possibly, a SoCon Championship. Playoff game... With that record against that schedule, is it enough for Mercer to get a Top 8 Seed and a 1st round bye/2nd round Home Game? If not, does Mercer bid enough to get a 1st round Home Game? Recognizing there's extremely limited data to make the call, if Mercer makes the Playoffs AND gets a Home Game, what % chance of winning a 1st (or 2nd) round game would you (or anyone else) give the Bears? Anyone else want to make a game-by-game Season prediction? My guess would be, when we find ourselves in a position to host an FCS playoff game, President Underwood will do everything in his purview to secure hosting. It's not as sexy as it sounds. It costs a good bit of money, and the first round of the FCS playoffs usually falls on Thanksgiving, so the students aren't there. The attendance, even at the schools with great attendance, is probably half or less. |
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Post by Clueless Fan on Jul 5, 2017 11:14:48 GMT -5
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Jul 7, 2017 14:19:14 GMT -5
Another preview
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Post by Clueless Fan on Jul 13, 2017 7:37:34 GMT -5
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Post by jackal on Jul 18, 2017 5:00:22 GMT -5
Mr. Shirley is nothing if not consistent. |
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