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Post by Clueless Fan on Feb 26, 2018 7:50:21 GMT -5
Thread for all things related to the SoCon Tournament in Asheville. Who is going? Restaurant and or bar recommendations? Other sites of interest in the Asheville area? I like the Bears chances. WBB Bears plays WCU at 11:00 on Thursday. MBB team plays Wofford at 2:30 on Saturday. www.soconsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4000&ATCLID=211654396
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Post by jackal on Feb 26, 2018 12:14:47 GMT -5
No real easy path for any team, which is how you like to see it. I think a lot of teams like their draw because everyone seems capable of beating everyone else.
Mercer has the difficult task of beating a good team for the third time.
I am keeping an eye on the Citadel/VMI game. The Bulldogs play a pretty frenetic pace, and how they fare in the opener may dictate how much gas they have left against UNCG. Mercer, I think, would rather see the Citadel come out of the play in game and just run UNCG up and down the court.
Interestingly, the teams that have given Mercer the most trouble are on the other side of the bracket. The Bears are 1-5 against Furman, ETSU, and WCU.
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 26, 2018 12:20:44 GMT -5
SAGARIN Ratings heading into SoCon Tourney...only counts D1 Games..."Predictor" has something to do with Points...and "Recent" weights more recent games more heavily... RANK | TEAM | RATING
| WON
| LOST
| SCHEDL
| SCHEDL Rank
| VS top 25 Won
| VS top 25 Lost
| VS top 50 Won
| VS top 50 Lost
| PREDICTOR | PREDICTOR Rank | RECENT
| RECENT Rank | 103 | Furman | 76.47 | 20 | 9 | 68.85 | 261 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 76.52 | 102 | 77.08 | 106 | 105 | NC Greensboro | 76.30 | 21 | 7 | 68.04 | 287 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75.87 | 107 | 83.52 | 38 | 108 | ETSU | 75.90 | 21 | 8 | 68.78 | 263 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 76.13 | 105 | 68.53 | 227 | 128 | Mercer | 74.22 | 16 | 13 | 69.37 | 234 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 73.86 | 131 | 82.52 | 45 | 173 | Wofford | 71.42 | 17 | 11 | 70.27 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 70.97 | 174 | 75.15 | 134 | 269 | Samford | 64.79 | 8 | 21 | 70.83 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 64.27 | 272 | 69.23 | 215 | 294 | Chattanooga | 63.00 | 7 | 22 | 69.58 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62.86 | 295 | 63.33 | 292 | 301 | Western Carolina | 62.70 | 11 | 18 | 71.55 | 152 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 61.93 | 308 | 67.74 | 242 | 325 | The Citadel | 60.58 | 7 | 20 | 70.06 | 207 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 60.42 | 324 | 59.43 | 320 | 332 | VMI | 59.07 | 7 | 20 | 69.59 | 224 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 58.33 | 333 | 64.98 | 270 |
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Post by smokeybear on Feb 26, 2018 13:26:21 GMT -5
The Smokey Bear rating has Mercer winning both the men's and women's championships. It has everything to do with me being a homer.
Any chance Holland will be back for Saturday's game?
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 26, 2018 14:48:32 GMT -5
Current ESPN SoCon Rankings... ESPN RK | TEAM | W | L | BPI RK | SOS RK | SOR RK | RPI RK | 70 | Furman | 22 | 9 | 70 | 176 | 95 | 91 | 85 | ETSU | 23 | 8 | 85 | 204 | 84 | 99 | 87 | UNCG | 24 | 7 | 87 | 219 | 73 | 83 | 103 | Mercer | 18 | 13 | 103 | 180 | 163 | 167 | 155 | Wofford | 20 | 11 | 155 | 179 | 126 | 132 | 270 | Samford | 10 | 21 | 270 | 123 | 288 | 283 | 286 | Chattanooga | 9 | 22 | 286 | 222 | 315 | 314 | 290 | WCU | 13 | 18 | 290 | 111 | 217 | 210 | 301 | The Citadel | 10 | 20 | 301 | 144 | 291 | 286 | 333 | VMI | 9 | 20 | 333 | 175 | 298 | 300 |
...and projections for 'known' games... DATE
| TIME | BROADCAST | PRED WINNER | PRED LOSER | PRED PT DIFF | WIN PROB % | 2/2/18 | 5:00 PM EST | ESPN3 | The Citadel | VMI | 4.6 | 64.8 | 2/2/18 | 7:30 PM EST | ESPN3 | Samford | Chattanooga | 1.2 | 54.6 | 2/3/18 | 2:30 PM EST | ESPN3 | Mercer | Wofford | 3.1 | 63.1 | 2/3/18 | 8:30 PM EST | ESPN3 | Furman | WCU | 18.2 | 94.0 |
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Post by smokeybear on Feb 27, 2018 9:35:51 GMT -5
I am hearing a lot of "It is tough to beat a good team three times in one season" comments.
I would bet statistically the odds favor a sweep. I might try to find some data to back up my guess.
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Post by jackal on Feb 27, 2018 12:21:27 GMT -5
I am hearing a lot of "It is tough to beat a good team three times in one season" comments. I would bet statistically the odds favor a sweep. I might try to find some data to back up my guess. Maybe. Maybe that is just an old adage. I tend to think that if you keep giving a good team a crack at you, eventually they'll get you. The only caveat to that one in this tournament is Furman's opening game against WCU. Furman swept the Catamounts and hammered them both times. Still tough to beat a good team three times, but WCU has struggled mightily to stop Furman.
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 27, 2018 14:10:54 GMT -5
I am hearing a lot of "It is tough to beat a good team three times in one season" comments. I would bet statistically the odds favor a sweep. I might try to find some data to back up my guess. Maybe. Maybe that is just an old adage. I tend to think that if you keep giving a good team a crack at you, eventually they'll get you. The only caveat to that one in this tournament is Furman's opening game against WCU. Furman swept the Catamounts and hammered them both times. Still tough to beat a good team three times, but WCU has struggled mightily to stop Furman. College Hoops ain't the NFL...but...from 1970 to 2018, 20 times have NFL Teams played each other 3x in the same season with 1 Team winning the 1st 2. In those cases, the 2x winning Team won 65% of the 3rd matchups. Pretty close to the 63.1% chance of winning that ESPN is giving to the Bears.
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Post by jackal on Feb 27, 2018 16:31:09 GMT -5
Maybe. Maybe that is just an old adage. I tend to think that if you keep giving a good team a crack at you, eventually they'll get you. The only caveat to that one in this tournament is Furman's opening game against WCU. Furman swept the Catamounts and hammered them both times. Still tough to beat a good team three times, but WCU has struggled mightily to stop Furman. College Hoops ain't the NFL...but...from 1970 to 2018, 20 times have NFL Teams played each other 3x in the same season with 1 Team winning the 1st 2. In those cases, the 2x winning Team won 65% of the 3rd matchups. Pretty close to the 63.1% chance of winning that ESPN is giving to the Bears. I expect in basketball there are only so many different things you can do to the same team. By the third meeting, you've probably seen everything they've got. In baseball, the numbers show that a pitcher's effectiveness decreases significantly the third time through the order. You give a guy enough looks at you, eventually he'll figure out what you've got and how to handle it.
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 28, 2018 7:54:05 GMT -5
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 28, 2018 8:55:28 GMT -5
Here is what Ken Pomeroy thinks. I don't know who Ken Pomeroy is or understand most of this cipherin'...but I know we have a few Math Majors (or Minors) on here that will enjoy cogitating on this... Again - I don't really know what all this means, but what I pull out of this in terms of Mercer's approach to the SoCon Tourney. The Bears need to play better Defense than they've played so far this season AND be a whole lot 'luckier.' Mercer D is ranked well below the Top 3 and they have been the unluckiest Team in the SoCon...I think that's what that means.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |----
| <------ | <---- | <Strength of Schedule> | ----> | ------| | NCSOS> | ------| | Rank | Team | W | L | AdjEM | AdjO | AdjO Rnk | AdjD | AdjD Rnk | AdjT | AdjT Rnk | Luck | Luck Rnk | AdjEM | AdjEM Rnk | OppO | OppO Rnk | OppD | OppD Rnk | AdjEM | AdjEM Rnk
| 87
| UNCG | 24 | 7 | 8.39 | 107.0 | 149 | 98.7 | 46 | 65.9 | 298 | -0.022 | 230 | -5.08 | 290 | 104.3 | 246 | 109.4 | 325 | -3.00 | 268 | 93 | Furman | 22 | 9 | 7.73 | 110.1 | 98 | 102.3 | 104 | 68.8 | 157 | 0.003 | 162 | -4.11 | 269 | 104.6 | 222 | 108.8 | 299 | -0.30 | 181 | 96 | ETSU | 23 | 8 | 7.51 | 107.2 | 143 | 99.7 | 61 | 68.1 | 191 | -0.007 | 195 | -4.15 | 272 | 104.8 | 206 | 109.0 | 312 | -0.84 | 194 | 137 | Mercer | 18 | 13 | 3.02 | 113.8 | 54 | 110.8 | 279 | 63.9 | 339 | -0.075 | 328 | -3.49 | 247 | 103.7 | 274 | 107.2 | 211 | 0.35 | 159 | 174 | Wofford | 20 | 11 | -0.39 | 109.7 | 105 | 110.1 | 258 | 66.2 | 281 | 0.082 | 28 | -2.42 | 218 | 104.8 | 211 | 107.2 | 212 | 2.47 | 99 | 289 | Samford | 10 | 21 | -11.36 | 109.1 | 108 | 120.4 | 349 | 71.1 | 53 | -0.031 | 255 | -1.07 | 169 | 105.0 | 199 | 106.1 | 152 | 4.43 | 64 | 299 | WCU | 13 | 18 | -11.93 | 96.1 | 328 | 108.0 | 210 | 69.5 | 108 | 0.104 | 11 | -0.55 | 157 | 106.5 | 136 | 107.0 | 201 | 5.53 | 37 | 309 | Chattanooga | 9 | 22 | -13.05 | 99.8 | 284 | 112.8 | 302 | 65.4 | 314 | -0.034 | 260 | -3.12 | 238 | 104.4 | 238 | 107.5 | 231 | -2.42 | 245 | 314 | The Citadel | 10 | 20 | -13.65 | 102.3 | 241 | 115.9 | 330 | 78.1 | 2 | 0.057 | 57 | -1.96 | 204 | 105.5 | 177 | 107.5 | 230 | 1.05 | 151 | 332 | VMI | 9 | 20 | -17.12 | 91.0 | 345 | 108.1 | 212 | 69.3 | 122 | 0.032 | 104 | -2.77 | 229 | 105.6 | 172 | 108.4 | 279 | -2.10 | 234 |
AdjEM - adjusted efficiency margin - the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. It represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions SOS - represents the strength of a team that would be expected to win half its games against the team’s schedule. It minimizes the effect of outliers on the SOS calculation while allowing all team's SOS value to be compared on the same scale. Luck - the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method (NOTE: Personally, FUBeAR would use the non-correlated gaussian method, but we all have our opinions, I guess)
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Post by Clueless Fan on Feb 28, 2018 16:25:03 GMT -5
Only Strawberry makes the All SoCon team and he is third team. Time to play like they have something to prove. No respect given. Coach of the Year Wes Miller, UNCG First team Zane Najdawi, The Citadel Desonta Bradford, ETSU Devin Sibley, Furman Francis Alonso, UNCG Fletcher Magee, Wofford Second team Jalan McCloud, ETSU James Dickey, UNCG Justin Coleman, Samford Mike Amius, Western Carolina Cameron Jackson, Wofford Third team Daniel Fowler, Furman Matt Rafferty, Furman Jordan Strawberry, MercerMarvin Smith, UNCG Demetrius Denzel-Dyson, Samford www.soconsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4000&ATCLID=211703249
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 28, 2018 17:27:30 GMT -5
Only Strawberry makes the All SoCon team and he is third team. Time to play like they have something to prove. No respect given. Coach of the Year Wes Miller, UNCG First team Zane Najdawi, The Citadel Desonta Bradford, ETSU Devin Sibley, Furman Francis Alonso, UNCG Fletcher Magee, Wofford Second team Jalan McCloud, ETSU James Dickey, UNCG Justin Coleman, Samford Mike Amius, Western Carolina Cameron Jackson, Wofford Third team Daniel Fowler, Furman Matt Rafferty, Furman Jordan Strawberry, MercerMarvin Smith, UNCG Demetrius Denzel-Dyson, Samford www.soconsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4000&ATCLID=2117032491st Place - UNCG - 3 Total; 1 on 1st Team 2nd Place - ETSU - 2 Total; 1 on 1st Team 3rd Place - Furman - 3 Total; 1 on 1st Team 4th Place - Mercer - 1 Total; 0 on 1st Team5th Place - Wofford - 2 Total; 1 on 1st Team6th Place - WCU - 1 Total; 0 on 1st Team 7th Place - Samford - 2 Total; 0 on 1st Team8th Place - The Citadel - 1 Total; 1 on 1st Team9th Place - VMI - 0 Total; 0 on 1st Team 10th Place - Chattanooga - 0 Total; 0 on 1st Team With these selections, it sure looks like Wofford should have been 4th, Samford/El Cid 5th/6th, and Mercer/WCU 7th/8th. No idea how Mercer could have finished above Wofford, Samford, and El Cid when the Bears' Players were 'clearly inferior' to the Players on those 3 Teams. Wait - Mercer swept Woffy and Sammy...didn't they?
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Post by smokeybear on Mar 1, 2018 12:51:11 GMT -5
In some sense, this is a complement to the team. One thing that has impressed me this year is that you don't know who is going to have a hot night and everyone is contributing.
It is teams like this that win tournaments.
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Post by jackal on Mar 1, 2018 16:25:40 GMT -5
I don't read to much into this stuff. I'm not completely sure what you were expecting. Basketball all conference teams have a limited number of spots and there were a number of good teams and quality players deserving this season.
Mercer finished with the league's fifth best record. Their leading qualifying scorer (Rivers) finished 21st in the SoCon in scoring and wasn't among the league leaders in any other category. The only other Bears that really show up among the league leaders in multiple categories are Strawberry and Jelks. Strawberry made the third team, and Jelks didn't, though his final numbers were behind guys like Furman's Matt Rafferty, who was put on the third team.
Every year someone has cause to be snubbed.
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