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Post by mercerfan on Feb 5, 2016 16:41:24 GMT -5
You know I am all about the rating.....where is that? I rate this signing class an "I" for Incomplete. A) I think there will be a few more added. I know of 1 FBS transfer DB that I think will be announced & I have heard rumors about 2 others. B) They cannot be properly evaluated, anyway, until at the end of the 2018, at the earliest....end of 2020 for a full evaluation. So how do you rate 2012 recruiting class and 2013 class? |
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 5, 2016 19:19:28 GMT -5
I rate this signing class an "I" for Incomplete. A) I think there will be a few more added. I know of 1 FBS transfer DB that I think will be announced & I have heard rumors about 2 others. B) They cannot be properly evaluated, anyway, until at the end of the 2018, at the earliest....end of 2020 for a full evaluation. So how do you rate 2012 recruiting class and 2013 class? I suppose that's a fair question, though I think you definitely have to consider the situation and grade 'on a curve' NOTE: I may not be 100% correct in the info below. If I misstate or omit anything, it's because I have a touch of CRS disease and a lot has happened in Mercer Football since 2012 - a few more roster moves than the Braves, even. The 2012 Recruiting Class ended up being over 100 players - I think it was 108. Of those, my estimate is that there will be 17 complete their eligibility in 2016. 3 completed their eligibility in 2015 (Alex Avant (DB), Wilson Heres (OG), and Cody Jones (DL)) & 1 had eligibility remaining, but did not play in 2015 due to Law School not allowing him to play (I have heard) (that was JT Palmer (WR)). MOST of those 108 players were walk-ons 'types' and I would be surprised if many of them had any FBS or FCS offers coming out of high school - except Avant, Heres, and Palmer who were transfers from Tuskeegee (D2), Air Force (FBS), and Presbyterian (FCS), respectively...along with about 7 other transfers from Air Force/Air Force Prep (Lendell Arnold (DB) is the only 1 of those 2012 AF guys still playing). So...21 'sticking' out of 108 isn't exactly a good hit ratio - 19%. Converting that to a 'typical' 25 Player signing class means you had about 5 out of those 25 stick-around and play through their eligibility. BUT - if you think about where Mercer WAS at the time of that Recruiting Class - no program, no facilities, no games scheduled until 1.5 years out, I think they 'hit' on a higher percentage than they actually expected to achieve. Avant, Heres, and Palmer all rec'd All-Conference accolades of some type during their careers...so that's 100% (if you do count Palmer as completing his eligibility and you don't count Cody Jones (DL), as a "Recruit" - he was already a 'regular' student at Mercer when Football started) of the guys who came in as "Day1's" (the 2012 Class) AND have completed their time (so far) were multi-year 'decorated' starters. That's a REAL good HIT rate. If we add in the 2012 guys who I expect to be playing in 2016, we have John Russ (QB), Kirby Southard (C), and Tosin Aguebor (OLB) who I know have rec'd honors. I believe Lendell Arnold (DB), Kelly Brooks (DL), Payton Usher (RB), and Tyler Zielenske (P/K) may have rec'd some 'notice' also. Certainly, in addition, Corey Lockett (OLB), Avery White (OG), Mitch Payne (OT/OG), Josh Jones (WR), and Jordan Marshall (WR) have been starters and solid contributors for most of their 3 seasons of play, as was Cody Jones (DL). So...if I'm counting correctly, 16 players out of the 21 'sticks' that came in 2012 have been solid contributors to a 10 win season and 2 very competitive seasons in the SoCon. I'm going to look at that as a 76% hit rate and grade that Day 1 / 2012 Class as an "A+" (y'all probably knew that was coming...didn't you?) 2013 was a little more 'reasonable' in terms of total number brought in, but I can't recall the exact number. I think about 50 would be close enough. Although Mercer still could not offer Athletic Scholarships to the 2013 class, they did have facilities, they had games scheduled for the 2013 season, and they had some inkling that there might be an opportunity to move to a scholarship program the following year. So, those recruits may have been told that a scholarship after year 1 was a possibility, though I'm sure no commitments of such being a certainty were made. So...most (not ALL) of the Players brought in with the 2013 also did not have other FBS/FCS offers. Of those estimated 50, there will, I believe, be 13 playing in 2016 (26% - so still fairly low 'stick rate'...but to be expected AND improving from the 2012 Class). 2 of those are Air Force/Air Force Prep transfers (Tripp Patterson (ILB) and Alex Lakes (RB)). As far as All-Conference-like accolades, I know that includes Lakes, Robert Brown (TE), and Tyler Ward (LB). Others that have started and may have also rec'd accolades are Tripp Patterson (LB), JeTarii Donald (RB), Mike Gray (DB), Tunde Ayinla (DL), Devin Davidson (LB), and Sam Arrington (TE). So 9 out of 13 (69%) - the ones who 'stuck' have been very solid contributors. All things considered, I'm going to have to rate the 2013 Class an "B+." Despite the very strong Players in that 2013 class, the main reasons it's only a "B+" in my eyes are OL & WR. None of the OLmen recruited that year have made any significant contributions (on the game field) to date. [NOTE: Although Sam Arrington was recruited as an OLman and started all or almost all games in 2013 at Left Tackle, he is now a TE. So I'm not 'counting' him as an OL Recruit in the 2013 Class.] I believe there may have been as many as 10 OLmen brought in. Also, no WR's in that class have 'stuck.' Can't get an "A" in MY rating scale, if you don't have at least 1 OLman pan out as an OLman) in a whole class. So... 2012 - A+ 2013 - B+ What do y'all think? |
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Post by orangeandblack on Feb 5, 2016 20:12:02 GMT -5
Looks like we added a kicker to the new class earlier today. Brad Powell announced via twitter:
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 5, 2016 20:21:02 GMT -5
Looks like we added a kicker to the new class earlier today. Brad Powell announced via twitter: Cool - keep looking in the Twitter 'honey-hole' and you'll find more....About 8-10, I think...and you'll find that FBS transfer I mentioned. I'm a little reluctant to post 'em...not sure why I feel that way...can't think of a logical reason...I guess it's that I perceive my message board anonymity is not quite as solid as others...maybe....but no rule against posting them. So...happy hunting...and (all) feel free to post what you find. |
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Post by orangeandblack on Feb 5, 2016 20:23:49 GMT -5
I realized that I hit the tip of the iceberg when I got digging on twitter. I'm too tired to go through the rest right now  |
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Post by mumd on Feb 5, 2016 22:43:11 GMT -5
So how do you rate 2012 recruiting class and 2013 class? I suppose that's a fair question, though I think you definitely have to consider the situation and grade 'on a curve' NOTE: I may not be 100% correct in the info below. If I misstate or omit anything, it's because I have a touch of CRS disease and a lot has happened in Mercer Football since 2012 - a few more roster moves than the Braves, even. The 2012 Recruiting Class ended up being over 100 players - I think it was 108. Of those, my estimate is that there will be 17 complete their eligibility in 2016. 3 completed their eligibility in 2015 (Alex Avant (DB), Wilson Heres (OG), and Cody Jones (DL)) & 1 had eligibility remaining, but did not play in 2015 due to Law School not allowing him to play (I have heard) (that was JT Palmer (WR)). MOST of those 108 players were walk-ons 'types' and I would be surprised if many of them had any FBS or FCS offers coming out of high school - except Avant, Heres, and Palmer who were transfers from Tuskeegee (D2), Air Force (FBS), and Presbyterian (FCS), respectively...along with about 7 other transfers from Air Force/Air Force Prep (Lendell Arnold (DB) is the only 1 of those 2012 AF guys still playing). So...21 'sticking' out of 108 isn't exactly a good hit ratio - 19%. Converting that to a 'typical' 25 Player signing class means you had about 5 out of those 25 stick-around and play through their eligibility. BUT - if you think about where Mercer WAS at the time of that Recruiting Class - no program, no facilities, no games scheduled until 1.5 years out, I think they 'hit' on a higher percentage than they actually expected to achieve. Avant, Heres, and Palmer all rec'd All-Conference accolades of some type during their careers...so that's 100% (if you do count Palmer as completing his eligibility and you don't count Cody Jones (DL), as a "Recruit" - he was already a 'regular' student at Mercer when Football started) of the guys who came in as "Day1's" (the 2012 Class) AND have completed their time (so far) were multi-year 'decorated' starters. That's a REAL good HIT rate. If we add in the 2012 guys who I expect to be playing in 2016, we have John Russ (QB), Kirby Southard (C), and Tosin Aguebor (OLB) who I know have rec'd honors. I believe Lendell Arnold (DB), Kelly Brooks (DL), Payton Usher (RB), and Tyler Zielenske (P/K) may have rec'd some 'notice' also. Certainly, in addition, Corey Lockett (OLB), Avery White (OG), Mitch Payne (OT/OG), Josh Jones (WR), and Jordan Marshall (WR) have been starters and solid contributors for most of their 3 seasons of play, as was Cody Jones (DL). So...if I'm counting correctly, 16 players out of the 21 'sticks' that came in 2012 have been solid contributors to a 10 win season and 2 very competitive seasons in the SoCon. I'm going to look at that as a 76% hit rate and grade that Day 1 / 2012 Class as an "A+" (y'all probably knew that was coming...didn't you?) 2013 was a little more 'reasonable' in terms of total number brought in, but I can't recall the exact number. I think about 50 would be close enough. Although Mercer still could not offer Athletic Scholarships to the 2013 class, they did have facilities, they had games scheduled for the 2013 season, and they had some inkling that there might be an opportunity to move to a scholarship program the following year. So, those recruits may have been told that a scholarship after year 1 was a possibility, though I'm sure no commitments of such being a certainty were made. So...most (not ALL) of the Players brought in with the 2013 also did not have other FBS/FCS offers. Of those estimated 50, there will, I believe, be 13 playing in 2016 (26% - so still fairly low 'stick rate'...but to be expected AND improving from the 2012 Class). 2 of those are Air Force/Air Force Prep transfers (Tripp Patterson (ILB) and Alex Lakes (RB)). As far as All-Conference-like accolades, I know that includes Lakes, Robert Brown (TE), and Tyler Ward (LB). Others that have started and may have also rec'd accolades are Tripp Patterson (LB), JeTarii Donald (RB), Mike Gray (DB), Tunde Ayinla (DL), Devin Davidson (LB), and Sam Arrington (TE). So 9 out of 13 (69%) - the ones who 'stuck' have been very solid contributors. All things considered, I'm going to have to rate the 2013 Class an "B+." Despite the very strong Players in that 2013 class, the main reasons it's only a "B+" in my eyes are OL & WR. None of the OLmen recruited that year have made any significant contributions (on the game field) to date. [NOTE: Although Sam Arrington was recruited as an OLman and started all or almost all games in 2013 at Left Tackle, he is now a TE. So I'm not 'counting' him as an OL Recruit in the 2013 Class.] I believe there may have been as many as 10 OLmen brought in. Also, no WR's in that class have 'stuck.' Can't get an "A" in MY rating scale, if you don't have at least 1 OLman pan out as an OLman) in a whole class. So... 2012 - A+ 2013 - B+ What do y'all think? My son is a plebe at West Point so I have become somewhat of a cadet fan. I recently read that Army brings in roughly 100 football players a year, and in 2016 something like 18 will graduate still playing football. They have quite a few drop from the team but stay in school. I think that WP is a bit unusual in that regard because of the ultra rigorous academics and military commitment, but wonder what the attrition is for most D 1 programs. Obviously Mercer would have a very high attrition starting from scratch and I would guess the scholly players will have a much lower attrition. Just curious. Thanks for your research in advance FUBeAR. |
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Post by mercerfan on Feb 5, 2016 23:07:11 GMT -5
So how do you rate 2012 recruiting class and 2013 class? I suppose that's a fair question, though I think you definitely have to consider the situation and grade 'on a curve' NOTE: I may not be 100% correct in the info below. If I misstate or omit anything, it's because I have a touch of CRS disease and a lot has happened in Mercer Football since 2012 - a few more roster moves than the Braves, even. The 2012 Recruiting Class ended up being over 100 players - I think it was 108. Of those, my estimate is that there will be 17 complete their eligibility in 2016. 3 completed their eligibility in 2015 (Alex Avant (DB), Wilson Heres (OG), and Cody Jones (DL)) & 1 had eligibility remaining, but did not play in 2015 due to Law School not allowing him to play (I have heard) (that was JT Palmer (WR)). MOST of those 108 players were walk-ons 'types' and I would be surprised if many of them had any FBS or FCS offers coming out of high school - except Avant, Heres, and Palmer who were transfers from Tuskeegee (D2), Air Force (FBS), and Presbyterian (FCS), respectively...along with about 7 other transfers from Air Force/Air Force Prep (Lendell Arnold (DB) is the only 1 of those 2012 AF guys still playing). So...21 'sticking' out of 108 isn't exactly a good hit ratio - 19%. Converting that to a 'typical' 25 Player signing class means you had about 5 out of those 25 stick-around and play through their eligibility. BUT - if you think about where Mercer WAS at the time of that Recruiting Class - no program, no facilities, no games scheduled until 1.5 years out, I think they 'hit' on a higher percentage than they actually expected to achieve. Avant, Heres, and Palmer all rec'd All-Conference accolades of some type during their careers...so that's 100% (if you do count Palmer as completing his eligibility and you don't count Cody Jones (DL), as a "Recruit" - he was already a 'regular' student at Mercer when Football started) of the guys who came in as "Day1's" (the 2012 Class) AND have completed their time (so far) were multi-year 'decorated' starters. That's a REAL good HIT rate. If we add in the 2012 guys who I expect to be playing in 2016, we have John Russ (QB), Kirby Southard (C), and Tosin Aguebor (OLB) who I know have rec'd honors. I believe Lendell Arnold (DB), Kelly Brooks (DL), Payton Usher (RB), and Tyler Zielenske (P/K) may have rec'd some 'notice' also. Certainly, in addition, Corey Lockett (OLB), Avery White (OG), Mitch Payne (OT/OG), Josh Jones (WR), and Jordan Marshall (WR) have been starters and solid contributors for most of their 3 seasons of play, as was Cody Jones (DL). So...if I'm counting correctly, 16 players out of the 21 'sticks' that came in 2012 have been solid contributors to a 10 win season and 2 very competitive seasons in the SoCon. I'm going to look at that as a 76% hit rate and grade that Day 1 / 2012 Class as an "A+" (y'all probably knew that was coming...didn't you?) 2013 was a little more 'reasonable' in terms of total number brought in, but I can't recall the exact number. I think about 50 would be close enough. Although Mercer still could not offer Athletic Scholarships to the 2013 class, they did have facilities, they had games scheduled for the 2013 season, and they had some inkling that there might be an opportunity to move to a scholarship program the following year. So, those recruits may have been told that a scholarship after year 1 was a possibility, though I'm sure no commitments of such being a certainty were made. So...most (not ALL) of the Players brought in with the 2013 also did not have other FBS/FCS offers. Of those estimated 50, there will, I believe, be 13 playing in 2016 (26% - so still fairly low 'stick rate'...but to be expected AND improving from the 2012 Class). 2 of those are Air Force/Air Force Prep transfers (Tripp Patterson (ILB) and Alex Lakes (RB)). As far as All-Conference-like accolades, I know that includes Lakes, Robert Brown (TE), and Tyler Ward (LB). Others that have started and may have also rec'd accolades are Tripp Patterson (LB), JeTarii Donald (RB), Mike Gray (DB), Tunde Ayinla (DL), Devin Davidson (LB), and Sam Arrington (TE). So 9 out of 13 (69%) - the ones who 'stuck' have been very solid contributors. All things considered, I'm going to have to rate the 2013 Class an "B+." Despite the very strong Players in that 2013 class, the main reasons it's only a "B+" in my eyes are OL & WR. None of the OLmen recruited that year have made any significant contributions (on the game field) to date. [NOTE: Although Sam Arrington was recruited as an OLman and started all or almost all games in 2013 at Left Tackle, he is now a TE. So I'm not 'counting' him as an OL Recruit in the 2013 Class.] I believe there may have been as many as 10 OLmen brought in. Also, no WR's in that class have 'stuck.' Can't get an "A" in MY rating scale, if you don't have at least 1 OLman pan out as an OLman) in a whole class. So... 2012 - A+ 2013 - B+ What do y'all think? 50 in 2013 seems way high, but I don't have a better number. May need to do some research. |
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Post by mercerfan on Feb 5, 2016 23:12:02 GMT -5
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 5, 2016 23:35:34 GMT -5
I suppose that's a fair question, though I think you definitely have to consider the situation and grade 'on a curve' NOTE: I may not be 100% correct in the info below. If I misstate or omit anything, it's because I have a touch of CRS disease and a lot has happened in Mercer Football since 2012 - a few more roster moves than the Braves, even. The 2012 Recruiting Class ended up being over 100 players - I think it was 108. Of those, my estimate is that there will be 17 complete their eligibility in 2016. 3 completed their eligibility in 2015 (Alex Avant (DB), Wilson Heres (OG), and Cody Jones (DL)) & 1 had eligibility remaining, but did not play in 2015 due to Law School not allowing him to play (I have heard) (that was JT Palmer (WR)). MOST of those 108 players were walk-ons 'types' and I would be surprised if many of them had any FBS or FCS offers coming out of high school - except Avant, Heres, and Palmer who were transfers from Tuskeegee (D2), Air Force (FBS), and Presbyterian (FCS), respectively...along with about 7 other transfers from Air Force/Air Force Prep (Lendell Arnold (DB) is the only 1 of those 2012 AF guys still playing). So...21 'sticking' out of 108 isn't exactly a good hit ratio - 19%. Converting that to a 'typical' 25 Player signing class means you had about 5 out of those 25 stick-around and play through their eligibility. BUT - if you think about where Mercer WAS at the time of that Recruiting Class - no program, no facilities, no games scheduled until 1.5 years out, I think they 'hit' on a higher percentage than they actually expected to achieve. Avant, Heres, and Palmer all rec'd All-Conference accolades of some type during their careers...so that's 100% (if you do count Palmer as completing his eligibility and you don't count Cody Jones (DL), as a "Recruit" - he was already a 'regular' student at Mercer when Football started) of the guys who came in as "Day1's" (the 2012 Class) AND have completed their time (so far) were multi-year 'decorated' starters. That's a REAL good HIT rate. If we add in the 2012 guys who I expect to be playing in 2016, we have John Russ (QB), Kirby Southard (C), and Tosin Aguebor (OLB) who I know have rec'd honors. I believe Lendell Arnold (DB), Kelly Brooks (DL), Payton Usher (RB), and Tyler Zielenske (P/K) may have rec'd some 'notice' also. Certainly, in addition, Corey Lockett (OLB), Avery White (OG), Mitch Payne (OT/OG), Josh Jones (WR), and Jordan Marshall (WR) have been starters and solid contributors for most of their 3 seasons of play, as was Cody Jones (DL). So...if I'm counting correctly, 16 players out of the 21 'sticks' that came in 2012 have been solid contributors to a 10 win season and 2 very competitive seasons in the SoCon. I'm going to look at that as a 76% hit rate and grade that Day 1 / 2012 Class as an "A+" (y'all probably knew that was coming...didn't you?) 2013 was a little more 'reasonable' in terms of total number brought in, but I can't recall the exact number. I think about 50 would be close enough. Although Mercer still could not offer Athletic Scholarships to the 2013 class, they did have facilities, they had games scheduled for the 2013 season, and they had some inkling that there might be an opportunity to move to a scholarship program the following year. So, those recruits may have been told that a scholarship after year 1 was a possibility, though I'm sure no commitments of such being a certainty were made. So...most (not ALL) of the Players brought in with the 2013 also did not have other FBS/FCS offers. Of those estimated 50, there will, I believe, be 13 playing in 2016 (26% - so still fairly low 'stick rate'...but to be expected AND improving from the 2012 Class). 2 of those are Air Force/Air Force Prep transfers (Tripp Patterson (ILB) and Alex Lakes (RB)). As far as All-Conference-like accolades, I know that includes Lakes, Robert Brown (TE), and Tyler Ward (LB). Others that have started and may have also rec'd accolades are Tripp Patterson (LB), JeTarii Donald (RB), Mike Gray (DB), Tunde Ayinla (DL), Devin Davidson (LB), and Sam Arrington (TE). So 9 out of 13 (69%) - the ones who 'stuck' have been very solid contributors. All things considered, I'm going to have to rate the 2013 Class an "B+." Despite the very strong Players in that 2013 class, the main reasons it's only a "B+" in my eyes are OL & WR. None of the OLmen recruited that year have made any significant contributions (on the game field) to date. [NOTE: Although Sam Arrington was recruited as an OLman and started all or almost all games in 2013 at Left Tackle, he is now a TE. So I'm not 'counting' him as an OL Recruit in the 2013 Class.] I believe there may have been as many as 10 OLmen brought in. Also, no WR's in that class have 'stuck.' Can't get an "A" in MY rating scale, if you don't have at least 1 OLman pan out as an OLman) in a whole class. So... 2012 - A+ 2013 - B+ What do y'all think? 50 in 2013 seems way high, but I don't have a better number. May need to do some research. You're probably right. I'm looking at some old data I have found now...that I don't think is quite complete...and there are 22 36 (counting a transfer Spring FCS transfer in) in my data - I believe there were a few more, but we'll go with that. 6 8 of those 22 36 were OLmen - Only 2 of those remain as OLmen on the roster and neither one was on last year's 2-Deep. Only 2 4 WR's in the Class, but both all are no longer at Mercer. 22 of the 36 are no longer playing and the Spring transfer-in will be graduating and not using his final year of eligibility....so...about 63%36%...Better stickiness, but I can't take it to an "A" with no 'Hits' on the OLine and no WR's on the roster at all. The 2012 Class with Heres, Southard, White, and Payne have logged A LOT of Starts in the OLine in the past 3 years...and as important as most (especially me) will acknowledge that the OL is to the success of the Team, I just have to give the 2012 Class a significant edge over the 2013 class because of that. Well, if you also look at WR - with Palmer, Jones, and Marshall in 2012 and no starts or 'sticks' from the 2013 WR's - same thing. If you're going to match up the 2 classes position by position, I think the only position where 2013 has the clear edge over 2012 is LB. Other positions would be close or a draw - TE, RB...but...after further review, I'm gonna stay with my grades - A+ for 2012 & B+ for 2013 EDIT: Yep - Thanks for the Link - I knew I was missing some & and 4 I have that aren't on that list (Lakes, Patterson, Steverson, Collins)...so 36 with 13 'sticking' with 'sticking' - that's 36% - higher than the 26% I had calculated, but still not great. One thing I will say - a number of those that are on the list at that link, I thought, were really good players...who would have contributed if they had stayed past their FR year....but none of those were OLmen. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 6, 2016 0:14:18 GMT -5
I suppose that's a fair question, though I think you definitely have to consider the situation and grade 'on a curve' NOTE: I may not be 100% correct in the info below. If I misstate or omit anything, it's because I have a touch of CRS disease and a lot has happened in Mercer Football since 2012 - a few more roster moves than the Braves, even. The 2012 Recruiting Class ended up being over 100 players - I think it was 108. Of those, my estimate is that there will be 17 complete their eligibility in 2016. 3 completed their eligibility in 2015 (Alex Avant (DB), Wilson Heres (OG), and Cody Jones (DL)) & 1 had eligibility remaining, but did not play in 2015 due to Law School not allowing him to play (I have heard) (that was JT Palmer (WR)). MOST of those 108 players were walk-ons 'types' and I would be surprised if many of them had any FBS or FCS offers coming out of high school - except Avant, Heres, and Palmer who were transfers from Tuskeegee (D2), Air Force (FBS), and Presbyterian (FCS), respectively...along with about 7 other transfers from Air Force/Air Force Prep (Lendell Arnold (DB) is the only 1 of those 2012 AF guys still playing). So...21 'sticking' out of 108 isn't exactly a good hit ratio - 19%. Converting that to a 'typical' 25 Player signing class means you had about 5 out of those 25 stick-around and play through their eligibility. BUT - if you think about where Mercer WAS at the time of that Recruiting Class - no program, no facilities, no games scheduled until 1.5 years out, I think they 'hit' on a higher percentage than they actually expected to achieve. Avant, Heres, and Palmer all rec'd All-Conference accolades of some type during their careers...so that's 100% (if you do count Palmer as completing his eligibility and you don't count Cody Jones (DL), as a "Recruit" - he was already a 'regular' student at Mercer when Football started) of the guys who came in as "Day1's" (the 2012 Class) AND have completed their time (so far) were multi-year 'decorated' starters. That's a REAL good HIT rate. If we add in the 2012 guys who I expect to be playing in 2016, we have John Russ (QB), Kirby Southard (C), and Tosin Aguebor (OLB) who I know have rec'd honors. I believe Lendell Arnold (DB), Kelly Brooks (DL), Payton Usher (RB), and Tyler Zielenske (P/K) may have rec'd some 'notice' also. Certainly, in addition, Corey Lockett (OLB), Avery White (OG), Mitch Payne (OT/OG), Josh Jones (WR), and Jordan Marshall (WR) have been starters and solid contributors for most of their 3 seasons of play, as was Cody Jones (DL). So...if I'm counting correctly, 16 players out of the 21 'sticks' that came in 2012 have been solid contributors to a 10 win season and 2 very competitive seasons in the SoCon. I'm going to look at that as a 76% hit rate and grade that Day 1 / 2012 Class as an "A+" (y'all probably knew that was coming...didn't you?) 2013 was a little more 'reasonable' in terms of total number brought in, but I can't recall the exact number. I think about 50 would be close enough. Although Mercer still could not offer Athletic Scholarships to the 2013 class, they did have facilities, they had games scheduled for the 2013 season, and they had some inkling that there might be an opportunity to move to a scholarship program the following year. So, those recruits may have been told that a scholarship after year 1 was a possibility, though I'm sure no commitments of such being a certainty were made. So...most (not ALL) of the Players brought in with the 2013 also did not have other FBS/FCS offers. Of those estimated 50, there will, I believe, be 13 playing in 2016 (26% - so still fairly low 'stick rate'...but to be expected AND improving from the 2012 Class). 2 of those are Air Force/Air Force Prep transfers (Tripp Patterson (ILB) and Alex Lakes (RB)). As far as All-Conference-like accolades, I know that includes Lakes, Robert Brown (TE), and Tyler Ward (LB). Others that have started and may have also rec'd accolades are Tripp Patterson (LB), JeTarii Donald (RB), Mike Gray (DB), Tunde Ayinla (DL), Devin Davidson (LB), and Sam Arrington (TE). So 9 out of 13 (69%) - the ones who 'stuck' have been very solid contributors. All things considered, I'm going to have to rate the 2013 Class an "B+." Despite the very strong Players in that 2013 class, the main reasons it's only a "B+" in my eyes are OL & WR. None of the OLmen recruited that year have made any significant contributions (on the game field) to date. [NOTE: Although Sam Arrington was recruited as an OLman and started all or almost all games in 2013 at Left Tackle, he is now a TE. So I'm not 'counting' him as an OL Recruit in the 2013 Class.] I believe there may have been as many as 10 OLmen brought in. Also, no WR's in that class have 'stuck.' Can't get an "A" in MY rating scale, if you don't have at least 1 OLman pan out as an OLman) in a whole class. So... 2012 - A+ 2013 - B+ What do y'all think? My son is a plebe at West Point so I have become somewhat of a cadet fan. I recently read that Army brings in roughly 100 football players a year, and in 2016 something like 18 will graduate still playing football. They have quite a few drop from the team but stay in school. I think that WP is a bit unusual in that regard because of the ultra rigorous academics and military commitment, but wonder what the attrition is for most D 1 programs. Obviously Mercer would have a very high attrition starting from scratch and I would guess the scholly players will have a much lower attrition. Just curious. Thanks for your research in advance FUBeAR. Yes - with some variation, all of the Service Academies (SA's) will bring in about 100 new football players/year. About 1/2 go directly to the SA's and about 1/2 go to the Academy Prep Schools. Maybe 1/2 of the Prep School kids will move to the Academy Team the following year and 1/2 will transfer to Mercer :-) - just kidding - the other half may choose to sign elsewhere and play or stop playing and still go to the SA or not play and not go to the SA. So, all that being said, they do start each year at the Academies with about 75 FR. By the time that class graduates, it will be whittled down to a 'normal' 20 SR's or so that play out their eligibility and graduate from the Academy. I'm going to speculate that of the 75 FR, about 1/2 leave the Academies...so that leaves about 15-20 that are going to stay at the Academy, but quit football...or be forced to quit if they want to stay due to grades or other issues. Some actually have to leave the Academies because they incur injuries in football that render them unqualified, physically, for military service. Others have the opposite occur; they may incur an injury in Military training that keeps them from playing ball, but they can still qualify for service. So, yes, Mercer's start-up attrition rates for 2012 and 2013 are somewhat akin to what is seen at the SA's every year, but as you said, I think this will drop to 'normal' levels (or better) for non-SA programs as we look at the Recruiting classes from the scholarship years (2014 - 2016 (so far)). Hey, it's a lot harder to walk away when they are 'paying' you $45k/year to play! |
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Post by mercerfan on Feb 6, 2016 9:44:47 GMT -5
I would suspect that if you were in the 2012 or 2013 classes and did not get any scholarship money in 2014, that you were highly likely to drop out.
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Post by Volquester on Feb 6, 2016 9:54:04 GMT -5
Absolute stud WR that Mercer signed in Kelby Brock. Good speed...not great but an outstanding route runner that catches everything. Kelby broke every receiving record at one of the nations top HS programs. Going head to head against Jacoby Stephens, one of the top corner/safety in the nation for 2017....absolutely schooled him. Nice pickup for the Bears.
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MU22
Baby Bear
Posts: 38
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Post by MU22 on Feb 9, 2016 0:10:11 GMT -5
I suppose that's a fair question, though I think you definitely have to consider the situation and grade 'on a curve' NOTE: I may not be 100% correct in the info below. If I misstate or omit anything, it's because I have a touch of CRS disease and a lot has happened in Mercer Football since 2012 - a few more roster moves than the Braves, even. The 2012 Recruiting Class ended up being over 100 players - I think it was 108. Of those, my estimate is that there will be 17 complete their eligibility in 2016. 3 completed their eligibility in 2015 (Alex Avant (DB), Wilson Heres (OG), and Cody Jones (DL)) & 1 had eligibility remaining, but did not play in 2015 due to Law School not allowing him to play (I have heard) (that was JT Palmer (WR)). MOST of those 108 players were walk-ons 'types' and I would be surprised if many of them had any FBS or FCS offers coming out of high school - except Avant, Heres, and Palmer who were transfers from Tuskeegee (D2), Air Force (FBS), and Presbyterian (FCS), respectively...along with about 7 other transfers from Air Force/Air Force Prep (Lendell Arnold (DB) is the only 1 of those 2012 AF guys still playing). So...21 'sticking' out of 108 isn't exactly a good hit ratio - 19%. Converting that to a 'typical' 25 Player signing class means you had about 5 out of those 25 stick-around and play through their eligibility. BUT - if you think about where Mercer WAS at the time of that Recruiting Class - no program, no facilities, no games scheduled until 1.5 years out, I think they 'hit' on a higher percentage than they actually expected to achieve. Avant, Heres, and Palmer all rec'd All-Conference accolades of some type during their careers...so that's 100% (if you do count Palmer as completing his eligibility and you don't count Cody Jones (DL), as a "Recruit" - he was already a 'regular' student at Mercer when Football started) of the guys who came in as "Day1's" (the 2012 Class) AND have completed their time (so far) were multi-year 'decorated' starters. That's a REAL good HIT rate. If we add in the 2012 guys who I expect to be playing in 2016, we have John Russ (QB), Kirby Southard (C), and Tosin Aguebor (OLB) who I know have rec'd honors. I believe Lendell Arnold (DB), Kelly Brooks (DL), Payton Usher (RB), and Tyler Zielenske (P/K) may have rec'd some 'notice' also. Certainly, in addition, Corey Lockett (OLB), Avery White (OG), Mitch Payne (OT/OG), Josh Jones (WR), and Jordan Marshall (WR) have been starters and solid contributors for most of their 3 seasons of play, as was Cody Jones (DL). So...if I'm counting correctly, 16 players out of the 21 'sticks' that came in 2012 have been solid contributors to a 10 win season and 2 very competitive seasons in the SoCon. I'm going to look at that as a 76% hit rate and grade that Day 1 / 2012 Class as an "A+" (y'all probably knew that was coming...didn't you?) 2013 was a little more 'reasonable' in terms of total number brought in, but I can't recall the exact number. I think about 50 would be close enough. Although Mercer still could not offer Athletic Scholarships to the 2013 class, they did have facilities, they had games scheduled for the 2013 season, and they had some inkling that there might be an opportunity to move to a scholarship program the following year. So, those recruits may have been told that a scholarship after year 1 was a possibility, though I'm sure no commitments of such being a certainty were made. So...most (not ALL) of the Players brought in with the 2013 also did not have other FBS/FCS offers. Of those estimated 50, there will, I believe, be 13 playing in 2016 (26% - so still fairly low 'stick rate'...but to be expected AND improving from the 2012 Class). 2 of those are Air Force/Air Force Prep transfers (Tripp Patterson (ILB) and Alex Lakes (RB)). As far as All-Conference-like accolades, I know that includes Lakes, Robert Brown (TE), and Tyler Ward (LB). Others that have started and may have also rec'd accolades are Tripp Patterson (LB), JeTarii Donald (RB), Mike Gray (DB), Tunde Ayinla (DL), Devin Davidson (LB), and Sam Arrington (TE). So 9 out of 13 (69%) - the ones who 'stuck' have been very solid contributors. All things considered, I'm going to have to rate the 2013 Class an "B+." Despite the very strong Players in that 2013 class, the main reasons it's only a "B+" in my eyes are OL & WR. None of the OLmen recruited that year have made any significant contributions (on the game field) to date. [NOTE: Although Sam Arrington was recruited as an OLman and started all or almost all games in 2013 at Left Tackle, he is now a TE. So I'm not 'counting' him as an OL Recruit in the 2013 Class.] I believe there may have been as many as 10 OLmen brought in. Also, no WR's in that class have 'stuck.' Can't get an "A" in MY rating scale, if you don't have at least 1 OLman pan out as an OLman) in a whole class. So... 2012 - A+ 2013 - B+ What do y'all think? My son is a plebe at West Point so I have become somewhat of a cadet fan. I recently read that Army brings in roughly 100 football players a year, and in 2016 something like 18 will graduate still playing football. They have quite a few drop from the team but stay in school. I think that WP is a bit unusual in that regard because of the ultra rigorous academics and military commitment, but wonder what the attrition is for most D 1 programs. Obviously Mercer would have a very high attrition starting from scratch and I would guess the scholly players will have a much lower attrition. Just curious. Thanks for your research in advance FUBeAR. Understand that the military academies can blanket sign a ton of kids and shuttle a bunch off to their academy specific prep schools, which will skew those graduate numbers later on. They are unusual for that as well as your note regarding the other aspects of military commitment. I haven't followed many other teams and their attrition rates over time outside of Georgia Southern, but the attrition in the Eagles program pretty much has hung around the 50% mark on average over the past two decades. Some years better than others. Interestingly enough, we had 100% return rate this year on our 2015 signing class which was the first time I can ever remember us not having some attrition just from homesickness, grades or whatever ... and that was with a large class of over 25 kids. Never thought I'd see that. I've always thought if you get 1/3rd of your signing class every year to significantly contribute on the 2 deep before they graduate, you'll end up with a solid program. Anything above that and I think the program's health will be reflected accordingly. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Feb 9, 2016 18:34:49 GMT -5
You know I am all about the rating.....where is that? that I think will be announced & I have heard rumors about 2 others. - Article KAM LOTT DB | JACKSONVILLE, FL | GEORGIA MILITARY COLLEGE - Signing Day Central Microsite 247Sports Player Profile - Class of 2014 RIVALS - Player Profile - Class of 2014MACON, Ga. - Mercer University football coach Bobby Lamb announced the addition of Kam Lott to the Bears' 2016 recruiting class on Monday, as he becomes the 14th signee for a group that will officially begin play next fall. Lott, a 5-foot-11 defensive back, helped lead Georgia Military to an 8-4 record and a berth in the 2015 Graphic Edge bowl last season, after transferring from Rutgers. The former First Coast High School standout was a two-time Jacksonville Times Union All-First Coast selection, leading the Bucs to a 21-3 record over his final two seasons including the 2013 district title.  |
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Post by chez23 on Feb 12, 2016 15:02:11 GMT -5
Thanks for the data but I wasn't looking for that deep an evaluation of this year recruiting class.... just wanted to know their Rivals star rating on each. Is there a site that shows FCS recruiting clases?
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