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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 25, 2015 0:01:58 GMT -5
So...IF I did my math correctly....the AVERAGE STARS for the Starters on the FCS Final 4 Teams was 0.72 Stars / Starter.
WHERE MY 0.72 STAR RECRUITS AT?
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 26, 2015 22:45:21 GMT -5
By special request and because these BS Bowl Games suck...I did the same 'analysis' for Mercer that I did for NDSU, JaxSt, SHSU, and Richmond...see below. Note: this is the starting lineup posted for the Samford game with 1 change because I knew specifically about that change. This may not have been the actual starting lineup in other cases or other games. Player | Position | Recruit Year | 247 Profile | 247 Stars | 247 Rating | 247 FBS Offers | 247 FCS Offers | Rivals Profile | Rivals Stars | Rivals Rating | Rivals FBS Offers | Rivals FCS Offers | Jordan Marshall | WR | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | 4-Air Force, Army, GaSt, Navy | None | John Russ | QB | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | None | Jimmie Robinson | WR | 2015 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | 1-SoAL | 2 | Y | 2 | 5.3 | 1-SoAL | 1 | Tee Mitchell | RB | 2013 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Kirby Southard | C | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Caleb Yates | OG | 2014 | Y | 2 | 77 | 3-MTSU, UAB, WKU | 1 | Y | 2 | 5.4 | 3-MTSU, UAB, WKU | None | Wilson Heres | OG | 2011 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | 1-Air Force Xfer | None | Y | 2 | 5.2 | 1-Air Force Xfer | None | Bret Niederreither | OT | 2012 | Y | 2 | 78 | 4-Temple Xfer | None | Y | 2 | 5.4 | 3-Temple Xfer | None | Thomas Marchman | OT | 2014 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 2 | 5.4 | 3-Air Force, CLT, GaSou | 2 | Avery Ward | WR | 2014 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | 1 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sam Walker | TE | 2014 | Y | 2 | 72 | 3-Army, Air Force, GaSt | None | Y | 2 | 5.2 | 3-Army, Air Force, GaSt | None | Lendell Arnold | S | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Tosin Aguebor | LB | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Zach Jackson | S | 2012 | Y | 3 | 85 | 6-TCU Xfer | None | Y | 3 | 5.5 | 10-TCU Xfer | None | Jeremy James | CB | 2014 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | 3 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | None | Mike Gray | S | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Tripp Patterson | LB | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Alex Avant | CB | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | None | Lee Bennett | LB | 2014 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Isaiah Buehler | DE | 2014 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | 4-FAU, FIU, GaSou, GaSt | 4 | Y | 2 | 5.3 | 3-FAU, FIU, GaSou | 5 | Jalen Penn | DE | 2014 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | None | Austin Barrett | DT | 2014 | Y | 2 | 77 | 3-Army, GaSou, UAB | 6 | Y | 2 | 5.2 | 1-UAB | 3 |
So...11 247Sports Stars / 22 Starters = 0.5 Stars/Starter 19 Rivals Stars / 22 Starters = 0.86 Stars/Starter Average Stars / Starter = 0.68 So...0.02 Stars/Starter behind JaxSt & 0.14 Stars/Starter ahead of NDSU...and 0.29 Stars/Starter ahead of Richmond & 0.39 Stars/Starter behind SHSU.
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 27, 2015 19:29:22 GMT -5
Last one...I had a request to research Chatt's Stars/Starter 2015...so...Starting Lineup vs. JaxSt in 2nd round playoff game... Player | Position | Recruit Year | 247 Profile | 247 Stars | 247 Rating | 247 FBS Offers | 247 FCS Offers | Rivals Profile | Rivals Stars | Rivals Rating | Rivals FBS Offers | Rivals FCS Offers | Wil Young | ZWR | 2014 | Y | 3 | 81 | None | 1 | Y | 2 | 5.4 | 3-ArkSt, Army, TxSt | 1 | CJ Board | XWR | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | 1 | A. Stewart | WR | 2013 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 2 | 5.4 | None | 2 | James Stovall | TE | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | 1-Navy | 1 | Derrick Craine | SBCK | 2013 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 2 | 5.2 | 1-Army | 1 | Josh Cardiello | RT | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 3 | 5.6 | 5-UGa Xfer | None | Synjen Herren | RG | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Jacob Huesman | QB | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | 1-Air Force | 1 | Hunter Townson | LT | 2013 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 2 | 5.3 | 2-ArkSt, MTSU | 1 | Corey Levin | LG | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | None | Jacob Revis | C | 2013 | Y | 2 | 75 | 1-Navy | 2 | Y | 2 | 5.2 | 1-Navy | 2 | AJ Hampton | SAM | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | None | Cedric Nettles | SAF | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Keionta Davis | RDE | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Dee Virgin | RCB | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Isaiah Mack | NOSE | 2014 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | 1 | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | None | Nakevion Leslie | MIKE | 2012 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | 3 | Toyvian Brand | LDE | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lucas Webb | FS | 2013 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Y | 0 | Not Rated | None | 1 | Trevor Wright | FCB | 2014 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Justin King | DT | 2012 | Y | 3 | 82 | 14-UTenn Xfer | None | Y | 3 | 5.6 | 13-UTenn Xfer | None | Sema'je Kendall | DIME | 2011 | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | N | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
So...8 247Sports Stars / 22 Starters = 0.36 Stars/Starter 16 Rivals Stars / 22 Starters = 0.73 Stars/Starter Average Stars / Starter = 0.54 (Same as NDSU...hmmm?)
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Post by jackal on Dec 28, 2015 11:15:35 GMT -5
Impressive researching skills. Lot of time spent trying to prove one guy wrong.
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 28, 2015 15:33:21 GMT -5
Impressive researching skills. Lot of time spent trying to prove one guy wrong. You like that? How about this? Team | Stars / Starter* | 2015 SoCon Finish Ranking** | Samford | 1.02 | 4 | Mercer | 0.68 | 6 | Chattanooga | 0.54 | 1 | Furman | 0.47 | 7 | Wofford | 0.43 | 5 | The Citadel | 0.23 | 2 | VMI | 0.14 | 8 | Western Carolina | 0.09 | 3 |
* Based on Starters listed in Final Game of 2015 and "Stars" for Players found on 247Sports and Rivals.com ** Ties in records 'broken' by head-to-head resultsDoes this tell you anything? I would say "No" because I think the whole Star 'thing' and Recruiting Rankings for FCS Players is, as my Yiddish friends say, a bunch of facacta mishegas...but others may have different thoughts and may be able to draw some conclusions from this data. It was interesting to compile...even though I think it's useless...which makes me pretty darn mishegas...I know.
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Post by BearDownMU on Dec 29, 2015 14:42:47 GMT -5
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Post by jackal on Dec 29, 2015 15:15:07 GMT -5
I wouldn't say "nobody" wanted him. Just sounds like nobody in the Big 12 wanted him. I'm sure some schools would love to have the #69 rated high school passer in the country. Good story, though. Reminds me of one of the beginning of "Moneyball" where Billy Beane throw a chair through a window because the A's drafted based only on size and fastball velocity.
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 29, 2015 15:20:56 GMT -5
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 29, 2015 19:08:36 GMT -5
So...I've found that when I become rather curious about something, I tend to have a bit of a problem controlling my curiosity. This caused me quite a few problems in my younger days, but I'll skip the details around that discussion....But since there were 8 SoCon Teams in 2015 and none of the those SoCon Teams made it to the "Elite 8" in the FCS Playoffs...and I had already looked, in terms of Stars/Starter at the 4 Semi-Finalists AND the SoCon, I only needed to looking into 4 more Teams to get a broad overview of this metric and see how the SoCon 'stacked up' with the Elite 8 in that regard....so, here's what I found... Rank | Team | Stars/Starter | Playoff Finish | Conference | 1 | Sam Houston State | 1.25 | Semi-Finalist | Southland Conference (SLC) | 2 | Samford | 1.02 | DNP | SoCon | 3 | Northern Iowa | 0.84 | Quarter-Finalist | Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC) | 4 | Jacksonville State | 0.70 | Finalist | Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) | 5 | Mercer | 0.68 | DNP | SoCon | 6 | Illinois State | 0.61 | Quarter-Finalist | Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC) | 7 | Chattanooga | 0.54 | Round of 16 | SoCon | 7 | North Dakota State | 0.54 | Finalist | Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC) | 9 | Furman | 0.47 | DNP | SoCon | 10 | Wofford | 0.43 | DNP | SoCon | 11 | Richmond | 0.39 | Semi-Finalist | Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) | 12 | Colgate | 0.36 | Quarter-Finalist | Patriot League (PL) | 13 | Charleston Southern | 0.32 | Quarter-Finalist | Big South Conference (BSC) | 14 | The Citadel | 0.23 | Round of 16 | SoCon | 15 | VMI | 0.14 | DNP | SoCon | 16 | Western Carolina | 0.09 | DNP | SoCon |
So...what does this mean to anyone? Anything? As I've said....I do find it, obviously & ADDICTIVELY, interesting, but pretty much meaningless. Agree or disagree?
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Post by jackal on Dec 30, 2015 9:34:57 GMT -5
Interesting that Samford and Mercer would have the most "stars" for players.
I assume some of that is probably built into transfers. Eubanks, I think, was a four star prospect out of high school (that incidentally, lost his starting job at Samford). Mercer has a couple three star guys that transferred in from FBS programs.
I am not passing an opinion on the merits of accepting transfers, but only suggesting that I imagine some your comparison has to do with adding a couple of three star players outside of what would ordinarily be contained in a spring recruiting class in the SoCon.
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 30, 2015 11:33:42 GMT -5
Interesting that Samford and Mercer would have the most "stars" for players. I assume some of that is probably built into transfers. Eubanks, I think, was a four star prospect out of high school (that incidentally, lost his starting job at Samford). Mercer has a couple three star guys that transferred in from FBS programs. I am not passing an opinion on the merits of accepting transfers, but only suggesting that I imagine some your comparison has to do with adding a couple of three star players outside of what would ordinarily be contained in a spring recruiting class in the SoCon. Yep - Michael Eubank was a 4 Star / 5.8 Rating on Rivals and a 3 Star / 85 Rating on 247Sports, but the guy who beat him out, Devlin Hodges, was a 2 Star / 5.4 Rating on Rivals and a 3 Star / 86 Rating on 247Sports, who had 9 or 10 FBS offers and was a much better fit for the "Hatch Attack" offense, IMHO. Hodges was the 'counter' for my data. If Eubank were in there, their Stars/Starter quotient would have been 1.00 vs. 1.02; so no change in where they would have 'ranked' among the Teams surveyed. Mercer only had 1 3-Star Starter, Zach Jackson (S), a transfer from TCU. He was a 3 Star / 5.5 Rating on Rivals and a 3 Star / 85 Rating on 247Sports. For a total of 3, Mercer had only 2 other FBS Transfer Starters with "Stars." Bret Niederreither (OT) was a Temple Transfer with 2 Stars and a 5.4 Rating on Rivals & 2 Stars and 78 Rating on 247Sports and Wilson Heres (OG) was an Air Force Transfer with 2 Stars and a 5.2 Rating on Rivals & 0 Stars and "Not Rated" on 247SportsFurman also had 2 FBS Transfer Starters with "Stars." Andrej Suttles (WR), an Air Force transfer, was a 3 Star / 82 Rating on 247Sports & a 2 Star / 5.4 Rating on Rivals and Jackson Buonamia (LT), also an Air Force transfer, was a 2 Star / 71 Rating on 247Sports. Buonamia had a Profile on Rivals, but he had 0 Stars and was "Not Rated" on that site. You are right about Transfers altering the numbers. HS Players are 'awarded' Stars by these services when they can 'convince' somebody that they actually have an offer - more Stars / Higher Ratings if those 'offers' are from FBS Schools - Higher for P5 than G5. Also, "Stars" are often added and ratings increased on signing day if a Player has been 'under the radar' in the Recruiting process. I would add that there is some bias upward bias based on how 'young' an FCS Team's Starters are as, though it's still terrible, coverage of FCS-level Recruits has increased from 2010 to 2015. That's why I think Mercer's rating is relatively higher than many of the SoCon schools - they're just younger. I have to admit that I was surprised that WCU didn't have more highly rated Players. While I don't think their Players are quite as talented as WCU's fans think they are , they do have some very good athletes starting up there that came from metro areas (ATL, CLT, RDU, etc.) and you wouldn't think they were so 'under the radar.' With the success they've had the past 2 years, it just MAY...MAY...say something positive about the Coaching Staff up in Cullowhee though in terms of identifying raw talent and 'coaching 'em up'...or it may be that WCU was so down-trodden when these players were recruited that they just didn't get that signing day 'bump' that I mentioned earlier. Who knows? - FCS Recruiting Rankings still are about a 1 on a scale of 1-10 in terms of predictive value of a team's future success, IMHO.
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Post by chez23 on Dec 30, 2015 16:49:50 GMT -5
Say what you want about the star rating system...recruits look at it and it adds value to a program. It is also obvious the odds are the more stars one has the more talented. Yes of course you will find lower stars that end up way better and vice versa but IMO the facts that these kids get a star rating next to them has impact on others when deciding on a school. Is it the main reason....no, but it has influence. A 3 star kid being rectuied by Georgia Southern and Mercer and sees Mercer has just about as many 3 stars as GSU then dont you think Mercer would increase their chances to land that kid? Campus, facilities, acadamics alone give Mercer the edge with many schools....add higher star rated players and MU wins the SOCON... often.
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Post by jackal on Dec 31, 2015 6:40:47 GMT -5
Say what you want about the star rating system...recruits look at it and it adds value to a program. It is also obvious the odds are the more stars one has the more talented. Yes of course you will find lower stars that end up way better and vice versa but IMO the facts that these kids get a star rating next to them has impact on others when deciding on a school. Is it the main reason....no, but it has influence. A 3 star kid being rectuied by Georgia Southern and Mercer and sees Mercer has just about as many 3 stars as GSU then dont you think Mercer would increase their chances to land that kid? Campus, facilities, acadamics alone give Mercer the edge with many schools....add higher star rated players and MU wins the SOCON... often. Do some people care? I'm sure they do. I'm sure locking a few good players into a program early helps recruit other guys later. I think what everyone else on here is noting is that it does not have nearly the effect you think it does. There are literally hundreds of reasons why a kid may go to Furman, UTC, Mercer, or somewhere else. Maybe its playing time. Maybe it's a coach. Maybe they like the city. Maybe their dad played there. Maybe they like the opportunity for a certain major. At the end of the day, is there some effect? Maybe. Does having a bunch of starred recruits equate to winning? I don't think so. Good football players and good coaches equate to winning. Who cares what some guy behind a computer thinks about their potential?
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Post by BearDownMU on Dec 31, 2015 11:50:28 GMT -5
Say what you want about the star rating system...recruits look at it and it adds value to a program. It is also obvious the odds are the more stars one has the more talented. Yes of course you will find lower stars that end up way better and vice versa but IMO the facts that these kids get a star rating next to them has impact on others when deciding on a school. Is it the main reason....no, but it has influence. A 3 star kid being rectuied by Georgia Southern and Mercer and sees Mercer has just about as many 3 stars as GSU then dont you think Mercer would increase their chances to land that kid? Campus, facilities, acadamics alone give Mercer the edge with many schools....add higher star rated players and MU wins the SOCON... often. Also, GASOU runs the triple option and a 4-3 defense. Mercer runs the Pistol and a 3-4 defense. Both of which would be about 4,000 times more impactful than star ratings when it comes to picking a school depending on position.
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 31, 2015 12:00:46 GMT -5
Say what you want about the star rating system... It is also obvious the odds are the more stars one has the more talented. IMO the facts that these kids get a star rating next to them has impact on others when deciding on a school add higher star rated players and MU wins the SOCON... often. Well...it's not really about me saying what I want. It's about the ACTUAL Recruiting Data from 16 Teams; the 8 top teams in FCS Football, 2 other Playoff Teams, the entire SoCon, and the ACTUAL Recruiting Data for the 704 Starters on those teams from 2 different "Recruiting Sites." The data just doesn't support that "Recruiting Stars" matter at all in terms of success for FCS Football Teams. BTW - Does anyone reading this thread have any doubt at all in the existence of "jury nullification?"
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