Game Week - Samford

Since it's their Homecoming/Senior night I'm guessing we'll see a better crowd than what was at Wofford. If we're gonna have any shot at this game we're going to need the offense to be firing on all cylinders for four quarters. I don't think we've done that yet this year. Defense has been playing well except for a few mental mistakes, but as we saw last year those can add up to an avalanche of points quickly. If the offense doesn't show up then, 42-17 Samford. If we do play our best ball then 42-35 Mercer.

Sorry Jim. I'm gonna talk about Playoffs!

1st - let's looks at the SoCon Standings at present...


A couple of premises before I begin the discussion of playoffs below:
1) Mercer must beat Samford this weekend
2) Chattanooga must beat Wofford this weekend
3) Mercer must beat Furman next weekend
4) The Citadel is a 'lock' for the Playoffs, as they have clinched the SoCon AutoBid, even if they lose to VMI & UNC to finish the season 7-1/9-2
5) Due to #2 above, Chattanooga is a 'lock' for the Playoffs even if they lose to Alabama to finish the season 7-1/9-2

If the first 2 things happen, then there will be a 3-way tie for 3rd place in the SoCon after this Saturday with Mercer, Samford, and Wofford all having beaten 1 of the 2 teams that are tied and having lost to the other (Mercer beat Sammy/lost to Woffy, Sammy beat Woffy/lost to Mercer, Woffy beat Mercer/lost to Sammy).

The following weekend, Sammy plays ETSU and Woffy plays VMI. Let's assume those are both wins...for now. Again, we have already 'assumed' that Mercer beats Furman (#3 above).

If we assume the SoCon only gets 2 teams in the Playoffs, then none of this matters (given #2 above) as El Cid and Chatt would be those Teams....but...

What if the SoCon gets 3 Teams in the Playoffs? Assuming the 3-way tie, we have constructed, Samford would most likely get the 3rd bid, even with their head-to-head loss (that we have assumed) to a Mercer Team with the same Conference and Overall record, due to their current ranking, but more importantly, they have an OOC win over a (currently) highly-ranked (#10) 8-1 Central Arkansas Team. Now, there is a chance that win could lose some of its luster as UCA finishes with Nicholls State (who almost beat UGa) and #1 Ranked Sam Houston State, but the UCA Bears would still be 8-3 and that Samford win is going to 'trump' Mercer's and Sammy's best OOC win - both having a win over unranked 3-6, Tennessee Tech.

But, let's look at it a different way. Wofford, in our scenario, would have the same Overall and SoCon record as Mercer and Samford, BUT 1 of Wofford's OOC wins is over Johnson C. Smith, a D2 Team, so they would only have 6 D1 Wins vs. Mercer's and Sammy's 7. D1 Wins is one of the stated criteria that the Selection Committee looks at, so, maybe, they say, "OK, 3 way tie for 3rd in the SoCon. How many D1 Wins does each Team have? OK, Woffy's, with only 6, is OUT then. Who won head-to-head between Mercer and Sammy? OK, Mercer's IN then." Will it work that way? I don't know. A lot of so-called FCS Bracketologists will say "NO!," but who knows what lurks in the hearts and minds of the Selection Committee? It COULD happen!

ALSO - What if the SoCon gets 4 Teams in the Playoffs? Well, in the scenario we have set up, I think the Selection Committee would not leave a Sammy Team home with a win over UCA and a head-to-head win over Woffy, despite their (assumed in our scenario) loss to Mercer. Then, it, once again, goes back to a decision between which matters more between Woffy and Mercer - # of D1 wins or Head-to-Head result. As I said above, they could go either way on that.

The simple solution, in the event this scenario plays out, is for the Committee to DO THE RIGHT THING and take 5 SoCon Teams!!!

Oh yeah, back to Sammy and Woffy's final games.

Assuming the scenario we set up (again), I don't see much of a possibility of Sammy losing to ETSU, but, if they did, they would be OUT. Not going to make the Playoffs with a 4-3/6-5 record and having lost their final 3 games.

On the other hand, I could see Woffy, after losing to Chatt, dropping their final game to VMI...IF VMI's QB, Cobb, returns and is healthy. The Keydets have enough speed on Defense to stop Woffy's O and the AnkleBiters don't really play great pass D. VMI could, just possibly, sneak up on them as the LittleDogs limp to the finish line after 4 VERY physical games with The Citadel, Mercer, Furman, and Chatt.

In the event, given our premises, if Sammy and Woffy both lose their final 2 games, Mercer SHOULD get the SoCon's 3rd Playoff spot. If either Woffy or Sammy lose their both of their last 2, Mercer SHOULD get the SoCon's 3rd/4th Playoff spot.

A lot to think about, but STILL a lot to play for - for Mercer, Samford, and Wofford. You won't see most people, at this point, including Mercer with the other 2 in this type of discussion, but they SHOULD be. I don't care what Jim Mora says!

Samford Practice Report: Nov. 7, 2016

Samford Game Notes: 2016 SAMFORD FOOTBALL - GAME 10 - MERCER - Nov. 12, 2016 - 2:30 p.m. (CT) Birmingham, Ala. Seibert Stadium (6,700)

OFFENSE
QB 8 DEVLIN HODGES (6-1, 213, RS-So.)
X 9 EMMANUEL OBAJIMI (6-0, 200, RS-Sr.)
H 5 DEVON SCHMITT (6-4, 230, RS-Sr.)
Y 6 KELVIN MCKNIGHT (5-8, 185, So.)
Z 3 KAREL HAMILTON (6-1, 202, Sr.)
F 14 JUSTIN CURRY (5-10, 205, RS-Fr.)
LT 57 NICK NIXON (6-4, 260, Fr.)
LG 62 ARMANDO BONHEUR (6-3, 305, RS-Sr.)
C 58 GORDON CROZIER (6-1, 290, RS-Sr.)
RG 75 ROYUS AMOS (6-7, 345, Sr.)
RT 78 ANTWAN JOHNSON (6-6, 300, RS-So.)

6-4/300 AVG OL
6 R-SR/SR, 3 R-SO/SO, 2 R-FR/FR on Offense (including a TRUE FR starting at Left Tackle)

DEFENSE
STUD (This is the position FUBeAR used to play ) 99 AHMAD GOODEN (6-1, 240, RS-So.)
DT 90 XAVIER FORREST (6-2, 280, Jr.)
NG 91 JARED HOLLOWAY (6-0, 290, Sr.)
DE 15 ROOSEVELT DONALDSON (6-2, 265, RS-Sr.)
SLB 29 TONNE OSAIGBOVO (6-0, 220, RS-Sr.)
MLB 44 DEION PIERRE (6-3, 230, Jr.)
WLB 45 SHAHEED SALMON (6-1, 226, Jr.)
CB 12 OMARI WILLIAMS (6-1, 190, Jr.)
FS 27 JAMERSON BLOUNT (6-0, 180, Sr.)
SS 46 CARTER MCMANES (6-0, 200, Jr.)
CB 2 MARQUIS MCCULLUM (5-11, 188, RS-Jr.)

6-1/269 Average DL (They look bigger to me)
6-1/250 Front 7
4 R-SR/SR, 6 R-JR/JR, 1 R-SO

Is the STATS poll an officially stated criteria used by the NCAA FCS Selection Committee to make their decisions on At-Large Teams?

If Mercer finishes 7-4/5-3, Samford finishes 7-4/5-3, and Wofford finishes 7-4/5-3, with each having finished 1-1 vs. the other 2, please explain why Mercer would be the 'odd-team-out' with...

1) a Head-to-Head win over Samford
2) 1 more D1 win than Wofford (I believe the number of D1 wins is the only 'specific' criteria that is cited in the Selection Committees guidance. Correct?)
3) a better quality Overall win than Wofford (a win over highly-ranked Samford (in this scenario))
4) an equal best OOC win with Wofford (their matching OOC wins over TTU)

I understand...

1) ...that Samford is heavily favored over Mercer this Saturday and that, as most people are now looking ahead to the Playoffs, they are 'giving' Sammy that game and eliminating Mercer from the conversation to make those conversations more manageable. I'm doing the same thing eliminating ETSU and VMI from potentially beating Sammy and Woffy, respectively and assuming Woffy loses to Chatt. If you don't 'give' Sammy the game this weekend, the conversation DEFINITELY changes.

2) ...that Mercer is the 'new kid on the block,' and, therefore, doesn't merit the mentions that Wofford does among the So-Called Bracketologists in the FCS Media and Message Board Universe. But, none of those people are on the Selection Committee.

If Mercer beats Samford and Furman, and the rest of the games play out as expected, Mercer has just as good a case to be the 3rd SoCon Team in the Playoffs as Sammy or Woffy do.

Also, if that happens, and the Selection Committee decides that the Solomonic decision is to only take 2 Teams from the 2nd strongest Conference in FCS, while they take 3, 4, or 5 from the CAA and the Big Sky, then I will recommend a SOUTHERN Secession from the FCS and recruit my friends from El Cid to lead the charge in that pursuit. They've done that sort of thing before, y'know.

So....IF the 3 of them finish 7-4, are you saying that you think the SoCon will only get 2 Teams in the Playoffs? If you're not saying that, please do say what you think will happen if they all 3 finish 7-4. How many SoCon Teams get in and which ones?

I hear ya, bear fan. One rule though: NEVER agree with Jackal!!!  (Just Kidding - it's OK to agree with him whenever he says something positive about Mercer without the "She doesn't sweat much for a fat girl" tone to it.)

On the elite 'thing'...

Mercer has beaten Chattanooga.
Mercer has been an eyelash away from beating El Cid all 3 years.
Mercer took Woffy to OT last year
Mercer played Sammy even for 3 quarters last year and within 3 points 2 years ago...and it remains to be seen what happens in this year's game.

...but you said, "beat," and I get that. Other than the 2015 win over Chatt, Mercer has not beaten the current teams at the top of the SoCon.

2 points though...

1) This season does not have to, necessarily, be 'winding down.' Beat Sammy & beat FU...and the "2nd Season" COULD be just starting...regardless of what Jackal and those "Bracketologists" are saying.

2) "Close" only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and in BUILDING a Football Program. Lack of depth on Offense, particularly, is still very much impacting Mercer's attempt to gain 'elite' status. And, that is still due to the BUILDING process. Only 3 Scholarship Recruiting Classes are on the field for Mercer this year ('14, '15, and '16 (those few of the '16 class that aren't redshirting)) and all 11 of their opponents this year have 5 recruiting classes on their rosters. The playing field won't be truly level until 5 classes have been signed...and even then, the 1st recruiting class or 2 could very well not be as talented as the 6th and 7th recruiting classes due to the 'newbie' factor of the Mercer program. While, on the 'close' theme - what do you think Mercer would have looked like this year if last year's leading rusher and excellent pass receiver out of the backfield, All SoCon RB, Tee Mitchell, had been available? Would he have been worth 2 points vs. El Cid? How about if 2015 All-SoCon Freshman WR/RB, Jimmie Robinson, were available? And, what if WR Avery Ward, along with the 2 I just mentioned, had been available vs. Woffy? Would they have made a difference in that outcome? All Teams struggle with injuries, etc. I get that...BUT, the effect on a depth-challenged Team is greatly magnified and that's what we've seen this Season.

As you said, the record DOES speak for itself - 1 SoCon win in YR 1, 2 in YR 2, 3 (so far) in YR 3, while also upgrading the OOC schedule every year.

That IS the definition of BUILDING.

So...I would ask you, and other Bear Fans, to not lose heart just yet.

Don't disrespect the legacy of those young men who came here in 2012, looking at only a mud hole that represented their Future Football Program, and set the tone for the Future by going 10-2 and were, much like this year (possibly), 2 wins away from making the FCS Playoffs. If the 2013 Team could have beaten Marist (as they didn't) and Stetson (as they did), they would have been the PFL Champions and in the FCS Playoffs in Year 1. They still have a chance to make it in Year 4. And, if they don't, this year's Team has certainly continued to BUILD on the foundation laid by those that came 1st, 'the Day 1's," and I expect they will add another level on that BUILDING in 2017!

GET BEHIND YOUR BEARS AND HELP THEM CONTINUE TO BUILD SOMETHING VERY SPECIAL!

Samford Practice Report: Nov. 9, 2016

HOMEWOOD, Ala.—The 21st-ranked Samford football team practiced for about two hours in shells Wednesday afternoon at Seibert Stadium.



The Bulldogs are continuing to prepare for Saturday's homecoming game against Mercer. So far this season, Mercer is 5-4 overall and 3-3 in Southern Conference play. The Bears are coming off a 21-13 win over East Tennessee State last week.



The Mercer offense averages 383.6 total yards per game (219.0 passing, 164.6 rushing).