Game Week - Samford

So if we play a complete game you think we still lose all the games? Nah fam, we win 3 of those.

These are complete games for us.  After going 0-4 against the top 4, you have to step back and just admit that things have to get better.  Saying that we already have the team to win will only bring the same results next year.  Something has to change.  It's not opinion, the facts are already on the table.  I wish that wasn't the case, but it is.

Absolutely. We just can't have the mindset that Mercer is good enough to beat the top 4 teams, "if" only x, y, and z would have "gone right". Those things didn't go right because the top 4 teams are better teams. I said in my post I'm very proud of The Bears and that they're on the right track.

Evidently I'm a fu$&@?! Idiot for thinking the coaches did a good job adjusting DURING the first half instead of waiting until half time. What the hell do I know?

Maybe you chould see if you can get CBL's job. You seems to have it figured.

So, I've had a chance to watch the game now and mercerfan is correct, from what I saw.

Mercer opened the game with 6 in the box on most situations and tried to get some pressure on Sammy's QB with a few blitzes in the 1st 2 series. Obviously that didn't work too well.

BUT, I saw something a little differently. I saw Mercer's D make the change to 5 in the box (usually) in the 3rd series. I don't think the Bears, necessarily added an extra DB. Looked to me that they just walked both OLB's out and back; instead of only 1. Anyway, we all know how the 1st 2 series went - Complete 9 yards/Complete 12 yards....etc. But let's look at the 3rd series...the one where I saw the change...

1st and 10 at SAM19 Devlin Hodges pass complete to E. Obajimi for loss of 1 yard to the SAM18 (Tosin Aguebor [OLB];Jalen Penn [DE]).
2nd and 11 at SAM18 Devlin Hodges rush for 1 yard to the SAM19 (LeMarkus Bailey [OLB]).
3rd and 10 at SAM19 Devlin Hodges [SCREEN] pass complete to [RB] Roland Adams for 32 yards to the MER49, 1ST DOWN SAM (Lendell Arnold).
1st and 10 at MER49 Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 2 yards to the MER47 (LeMarkus Bailey [OLB]).
2nd and 8 at MER47 Devlin Hodges pass complete to E. Obajimi for 47 yards to the MER0, 1ST DOWN SAM, TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:20.

So...1st down...5 in the box and they lose a yard (negative YAC) on a hitch - tackle is made by an OLB...with help from a (HUSTLING!) DE.
So...they see 5 in the box and try their 2nd running play. The only other one before this was near the goal line.
So...still seeing 5 in the box, and looking at 3rd and 10 from their own 19 (previously, in the 1st 2 series, they had only see 2 3rd Downs. 1 on 3rd/Goal and the other on 3rd/1) they throw in INSIDE screen to a RB. They have altered their attack from the previous 2 series. Unfortunately, Mercer has an Inside LB there to make the tackle for a loss on this Screen, but he misses the tackle and their RB scoots for 32 and a new set of downs.
So...now they try their quick game stuff, but it's stuff again by an OLB.
With 5 in the box, their quick game stymied, and no luck (or desire, really) at running the ball, they sling it deep. Unfortunately, Mercer's CB gets beat and they are off to the races for their 3rd 1st Quarter TD on a 47 yard bomb!

BUT...something had definitely changed after 2 series - only 2, not 3.

In the 1st Quarter, Samford was 21-23 passing (91%) for 228 yards / 9.9 yards/pass attempt. They ran the ball 2 times for 3 yards. They scored 3 TD's.
In the 2nd - 4th Quarter, they averaged 6-7 passing (still able to throw/catch @ 86%) for 58 yards or 8.3 yards/pass attempt...but they also tried to run the ball more - 4 times/quarter - still not a lot - but double is still double! And they averaged only 4.1 yards/rushing attempt....and they scored 0 TD's.

So...as mercerfan noted and anyone who can read a box score can tell, Sammy was not nearly as productive after the 1st couple of series.

Then...the question becomes (or has become), why didn't the Coaches make the change sooner OR just start out with 5 in the box. I don't know, but I'll throw out a couple of plausible reasons for consideration...

1) 2 of 4 starting DB's for Mercer did not play. How does that impact a Coaches strategy/tactics and changes he's willing/able to make and/or risks he's willing to take?

2) As a Defensive Coach, I would be hard-pressed to say, "OK, they have 7 in the box (5 OLmen, a QB, and a RB). The QB is a very good runner with speed and the RB is a burner. I should be just fine defending those 7 with only 5 in the box. That makes perfect sense!" That's really hard for a DC to process/believe. In fact, go back and watch Chatt @ VMI in 2015. That's exactly what the Mocs did to open the game...and VMI rushed for about 100 yards (well above their average) and got up 21-10. The Mocs went back to 6 & 7 in the box and, in the 2nd half, VMI rushed for 0 yards and scored 6 points...and lost. The adjustment that Mocs made to start the VMI game, which Mercer didn't make to start the Sammy game, almost cost Chatt. the ball game and against a vastly inferior team. Sammy is certainly not vastly inferior to Mercer. Was only having 5 in the box vs. Sammy the right strategy? Obviously, in hindsight, it was. As Sammy scored their 2nd TD 7:49 into the game, is making a rather bold change 1/2way into the 1st quarter too late? Turns out it was, but I really can't fault a Coach for opening with a more traditional approach. I'm sure any Coach would love to be so prescient, but few (if any) are.


One thing I won't consider is that these defensive Coaches are stupid or don't know what they are doing, etc.

Mercer's D, this season, has all but shut down The Citadel's nationally-leading rushing attack (except for 1 play); Wofford's diverse, highly-ranked rushing attack; and now Sammy's nationally-leading passing attack (for 3 of 4 quarters).

Take away a gap fit error by an ILB on the 2nd play vs. El Cid. Take away 2 or 3 blown coverages (mental errors) against Woffy. Heck, take away a missed tackle (on the screen) and a CB just getting flat beat on that 3rd series against Sammy and Mercer very well may win those 3 games. 1st half against Chatt and 4th quarter against APSU are the only times I have seen Mercer's D play really poorly this Season. The Bears had some puzzling personnel groupings in there @ APSU and I can't explain the 1st half against Chatt. this year.

In my opinion Mercer's Defensive Coaching Staff has done an AMAZING job this season. The Defense has progressed so much since 2013, when San Diego and Marist thrashed the Bears and Jacksonville's offense did as well. In 2014, El Cid ran wild (in the 1st half) and Wofford looked like they were playing against a D3 Team. Think about how much better this Defense has gotten over the years. Talent has certainly improved, but I also see that talent being developed and getting better over time. Finally, I am amazed at the number of kids that Mercer rotates thru on D. Other SoCon Teams don't do this. The Bears constantly roll 3 deep in the D-Line and 2 or 3 deep elsewhere. This is how players are developed and those dividends pay off in games, late in the season, and in the future...which I think is very, very bright for Mercer's D!


By the way, I had an opportunity to interview John Russ today. I only asked him 1 question. This was his response...

At least I won't insult our players claiming we have a talent gap.