Game Week - Furman

Furman wants to and CAN run the ball. Samford definitely does NOT want to and there's some question if they can. I think they probably could if they WANTED to, but they so don't want to that they CAN'T. So, Furman is much more balanced on Offense than Samford.

Mercer, from what I can tell, made a risky/unconventional change on D vs. Sammy after the 2nd series, that didn't really show up, unfortunately, until after the 3rd series and 3rd TD. The Bears went to 5 in-the-box vs. 7 for Sammy. So, they covered their 4 WR's with 6-8 Defenders (4 DB's, 2 OLB's + 1 or 2 ILB's - depending on blitzes and such). So Sammy's WR's did NOT have "plenty of room to maneuver underneath."

In the 1st Quarter, Sammy was 21-23 for 228 yards passing (10.9 yds/completion & 9.9 yds/attempt) ...and scored 3 TD's
In the 2nd-4th Quarter, Sammy averaged 6-7 for 58 yards passing per quarter (19-21 for 183 yards or 9.6 yds/completion & 8.7 yds/attempt)...and scored 0 TD's. Still a high completion % and, on its face, not a huge difference in yds/completion and/or yds/attempt, but those differences put them into situations where they struggled to get 1st downs & they gave up 2 Forced Fumbles - WR's on big catches who had the ball knocked out by hard tackles after the catch. So, while they didn't punt nor have any turnovers in the 1st Quarter, they had 4 punts and 2 turnovers in Quarters 2-4.

I don't see them playing 5 in the box vs. Furman, so they are going to have to play more balanced on Defense. When I look at Furman's Offense, the Team that Mercer has already played that I see being the most like Furman on Offense, is Chattanooga. APSU & ETSU were relatively balanced, as was WCU (stat-wise), but none of those 3 have the Talent that Chatt AND FU have. So...that doesn't necessarily look too promising for Mercer, given how the 1st half went against Chatt. BUT, Chatt only scored 1 TD on Offense in the 2nd half vs. Mercer.

So...all of this bandied around...what it comes down to, for both Teams, IMO, is which Team will show up and and play to the best of their ability all 4 quarters. That is the Team that will win this game. IF they both do that, I have no idea who will win. In that case, I would suspect that, our good friends, the SoCon Officials will play a major part in the outcome of the game...and I know we all love to think about that!

My 'other board' post for this week below...got a little hard-core honest this week...kinda 'in my feelings' over all these young men finishing up their Mercer Football careers today...

No 2-Parter this week and no David Wilson to help with Power Rankings...
I like the way Scrappy94 laid out his Power Rankings, so I'll borrow that format (ranking numbers shown ARE intentional)...

POWER RANKINGS
1. The Citadel - Found ways to pull out very close wins against Mercer (+1), Furman (+5), Chattanooga (+8), Wofford (+3 in OT), and Samford (+3 in OT) (average margin of victory = 5 points). Putting themselves in position to and then gaining those victories speaks volumes about their character as a Team. Clearly, the Bulldogs execute what they do on Offense better than any Team in the SoCon, if not all of FCS. And, their D plays with the kind of effort and exuberance required to win Championships. IF they don't put the dang ball on the ground in the Playoffs, El Cid can have a long run and just may be able to ride their Offensive discipline, their Defensive fire, and their SoCon battle-tested ability to find a way to win the close ones, all the way to Frisco.
*T2. Chattanooga - Other than their 1st half vs. El Cid, the Mocs have appeared uninspired since their 1st half against Mercer. Must get that FIRE back for Playoffs. If they play with HIGH EFFORT (particularly their OL) on Offense and play disciplined on Defense, they have the overall talent and balance to go a long way in the Playoffs.
*T2. Samford - Though Sammy fans disagree, last week, it became CLEAR to me, if they can't/won't run the ball when their opponent 'dares' them to, their Playoff run will be too short. Very talented Team on Offense and good enough on Defense. Can go deep in the Playoffs IF they can/will run the ball well enough to make their opponents 'play fair.'
*T2. Wofford - This Woffy Team seems both cursed and blessed. Very emotional season for them. Not afraid to do whatever it takes on Offense to WIN, even if that means NOT 'doing what they do.' Terriers D has also been able to 'play up' this season with some new faces in the secondary. If they can/will embrace their 'magic' and own that this Team is Special...and play like they ARE, they can make a run and send some favored Playoff opponents home sad and wondering how they got whipped!
**T3. Mercer - Love the 29 Sr's, including 17 "Day1's" that are wrapping up their Mercer Football careers on Satuday. They are absolutely pissed off at themselves that they didn't win more SoCon games and at least 1 Championship in their 3 years in the Conference, but there's not 1 Team in the SoCon that can say, "We whipped the Bears a$$e$ every year" Woffy, Sammy, and El Cid can say they finished 3-0 vs. this group of OriginalBears, but only 1 of those 9 games was anywhere close to an a$$-whippin' (Woffy '14 gets the honor of that claim) and most of them were dogfights to the very end. Every Team in the SoCon knew they were in for a fight with Mercer and that the fight was not going to over until the clock showed 0:00, regardless of what the scoreboard said. Not too shabby for a bunch of walk-on's that no other SoCon Team wanted and just a couple of transfers, 17 of whom decided to come play Football at Mercer when the only evidence of the school having a Football Team was a mudhole and some drawings. Very Proud of these young men!!
**T3. Furman - Very good Team that should kick the (former) AD's a$$ and/or the SoCon for the schedule-hand they were dealt. That said, they did not deal with 'hand' well and they had a few key injuries hamper their efforts to climb off the ropes mid-season. Putting it together now though and looking like the Team they could have been this Season.
7. VMI - Lot of fight in this bunch. Even though they lost a close one to WCU, I'm ranking them higher because they showed up every week and played HARD. Losing their ACE trigger-man the week before that game, no doubt, affected the outcome. This is a program headed in the right direction and will break some SoCon hearts in the years ahead.
8. ETSU - Better than expected this Season. Beating 8-2 and ranked Kennesaw to start the Season and then taking advantage of the cracks that started showing early in WCU's 'armor' for their 1st SoCon win are HUGE accomplishments. On campus stadium is going to be beautiful and a great environment. They will join the mix of Teams competing for the SoCon title in 2018, if not next season.
9. Western Carolina - Talented skill players, a potential 'phenom' at QB and a RB that's as good as any in FCS. BUT major issues in the trenches and on the Defensive side of the ball. Coach Speir may have to work harder this off-season than he did his 1st 2 years to get the Catamount Train headed back in the direction it was going in 2014 & 2015.

*1-1 vs each other
** 2 Teams that, IMO, overall, are as Talented as the 4 ahead of them, but just didn't put 'it' together this season, and/or do quite enough to pull out close wins, and/or lost key players to injuries/other reasons at critical junctures of the season. Again, IMO, both of these Teams, would (as I fully expect the 4 ahead of them to do) do the SoCon proud IF they had been able to put together a season that landed them in the Playoffs.

PREDICTIONS

Last Week...4-1
* My Pick: The Citadel @ VMI 27-14 / Actual: Bellhops won 30-20 - Keydets made it a little closer than expected, but in the ballpark
* My Pick: Cumberland College @ ETSU 28-13 / Actual: Buccaneers won 23-16 - Again, a little closer than expected, but not too far off
* My Pick: Wofford @ Chattanooga 34-14 / Actual: AnkleBiters won 36-28 - Guess I expected to see "1st Half vs. Mercer Chatt," but Mocs seemed detached and Terriers came to play (and WIN). Missed this one badly!
* My Pick: Mercer @ Samford 56-20 / Actual: BullPups won 24-19. Did not expect Mercer's D to be able to shut down Sammy's high-powered offense for the final 3 quarters. Hit the Bears' number pretty close though...even though I didn't anticipate John Russ having 41 Rushing Attempts!
* My Pick: WCU @ Furman 35-24 / Actual: Paladins prevail 49-21 overestimated the amount of fight remaining in WCU's Defense and didn't know Furman was going to 'dust off' their excellent 235lb RB, who previously this season had 9 carries for 24 yards, but started vs. WCU and had 17 carries for 171 yards and 2 TD's

39-16-1 - .709 for the Season

This Week...
* VMI @ Wofford 2:00 PM - Cobb is listed as the starting QB in the VMI Game Notes, so the Roos have a chance. On the other hand, the combination of Woffy's excellent D-Line and their blitz packages (if they blitz enough...which should be often) may make him re-think his decision to play. They will get to him early and often. Don't think the Keydet D is quite strong enough to stop the PorchYappers O either...and this game is CRITICAL for Woffy. I see the SmallDogs winning 38-14
* Furman @ Mercer 3:00 PM - Abstain from picking this one. I think it will be an excellent hard-fought game. I think the Team that executes better and plays closer to their full potential for all 4 quarters will win. If both Teams do that equally, then I fear the SoCon Officials and their oft-witnessed incompetence will have way too much of an impact on the outcome of this game...and that will make me very sad - regardless of that outcome.
* The Citadel @ North Carolina 3:30 PM - I want to pick the Bellhops in this one, but UNC will not be caught off-guard - 10-0 is too big of a 'Neon Sign' to ignore. Also, the Rams had a 'practice game' vs. GT's TO Offense a couple of weeks ago and graded out well. Cheatin' BabyBlue over HonorCode BabyBlue 35-21
* Samford @ ETSU 3:30 PM - Sammy won't need to run it against the HillsideOceanBandits, who actually can stop the run pretty well. Sammy tunes up for Playoffs and the BullPups come away with a 56-17 win.
* WCU @ South Carolina 4:00 PM - Catamounts will enjoy the atmosphere at Williams-Brice Stadium and the check will not bounce. Roosters roll 77-17
* Chattanooga @ Alabama 7:00 PM - Very well may have the look of a lopsided 1st Week NFL Exhibition Game. I think both Teams will play their starters for the 1st quarter and then focus on their respective more important contests ahead. CrimsonElephantYellowHammers JV takes down the Mocs 2nd Teamers 42-17

Good game, Bears. You guys are going to miss #7.

No doubt.  Understatement of the century.

x = EIGHT