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Post by FUBeAR on Nov 29, 2016 8:22:00 GMT -5
2016 FCS Playoffs Round 2 - Massey Ratings - Matchup Score Predictions/Win Probabilities & Team #1 Seed Team BearDownMU Bracket Projections
(All Times EASTERN)
12/03 12:00 PM 3:00 PM - Chattanooga @ #5 Seed Sam Houston State
Massey - Sam Houston State - 41-36 with a 65% Win Probability for the BearKats
Team BDMU - Sam Houston State BearKats win 42-35
12/03 2:00 PM - New Hampshire @ #4 Seed James Madison
Massey - James Madison - 42-34 with a 75% Win Probability for the Dukes
Team BDMU - James Madison Dukes win 45-35 (score is projected over Lehigh, but 'carries over' to NH since Lehigh lost...I think)
12/03 2:00 PM - Youngstown State @ #3 Seed Jacksonville State
Massey - Jacksonville State - 21-17 with a 62% Win Probability for the Gamecocks
Team BDMU - Jacksonville State Gamecocks win 21-14
12/03 3:00 PM - Villanova @ #8 Seed South Dakota State
Massey - South Dakota State - 28-17 with an 80% Win Probability for the Jackrabbits
Team BDMU - South Dakota State Jackrabbits win 24-7
12/03 3:30 PM - San Diego @ #1 Seed North Dakota State
Massey - North Dakota State - 31-10 with a 93% Win Probability for the Bison
Team BDMU - North Dakota State Bison 35-21 (score is projected over Cal-Poly, but 'carries over' to SD since C-P lost...I think)
12/03 4:00 PM - Central Arkansas @ #2 Seed Eastern Washington
Massey - Eastern Washington - 35-28 with a 73% Win Probability for the Eagles
Team BDMU - Eastern Washington Eagles win 42-24
12/03 6:00 PM - Wofford @ #6 Seed The Citadel
Massey - The Citadel - 20-17 with a 55% Win Probability for the Bulldogs
Team BDMU - Wofford Terriers win 20-14
12/03 6:00 PM - Richmond @ #7 Seed North Dakota
Massey - North Dakota - 28-24 with a 63% Win Probability for the Fighting Hawks
Team BDMU - North Dakota Fighting Hawks win 31-10
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Post by BearDownMU on Nov 29, 2016 12:49:21 GMT -5
Along those same lines, I also miss Terry Tate, Office Linebacker.
"THE PAIN TRAIN IS COMIN'!!!"
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Post by FUBeAR on Nov 29, 2016 13:38:06 GMT -5
Along those same lines, I also miss Terry Tate, Office Linebacker. "THE PAIN TRAIN IS COMIN'!!!" I may be old, fat, and crippled...but I would give ANYTHING to have Terry's job! "Oh, Hey Janis" and "Do I enjoy my job"...HE-AY-YALL YEAH!!!" are my favorite lines in that video. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 1, 2016 13:15:05 GMT -5
Your VERY-MUCH-DELAYED (wise guys take long T'givings, I guess) FCS Playoff 2nd Round INVESTMENT GUIDE
Chattanooga at Sam Houston State - FCS Playoffs - Secord Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 3:00 PM 12:00 PM
Chattanooga +5
Over/Under 74½
Projected Score = About 40-35 BearKats
Massey = 41-36 BearKats
Team BDMU = 42-35 BearKats
New Hampshire at James Madison - FCS Playoffs - Second Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 2:00 PM
New Hampshire +10½
Over/Under 71½
Projected Score = About 41-30 Dukes
Massey = 42-34 Dukes
TeamBDMU = 45-35 Dukes (score is projected over Lehigh, but 'carries over' to NH since Lehigh lost...I think)
Youngstown State at Jacksonville State - FCS Playoffs - Second Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 2:00 PM
Youngstown State +4
Over/Under 39
Projected Score = About 21-17 Gamecocks
Massey = 21-17 Gamecocks
TeamBDMU = 21-14 Gamecocks
Villanova at South Dakota State - FCS Playoffs - Second Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 3:00 PM
Villanova +11
Over/Under 48
Projected Score = About 29-18 Jackrabbits
Massey = 28-17 Jackrabbits
TeamBDMU = 24-7 Jackrabbits
San Diego at North Dakota State - FCS Playoffs - Second Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 3:30 PM
San Diego +21½
Over/Under 43½
Projected Score = About 32-11 Bison
Massey = 31-10 Bison
TeamBDMU = 35-21 Bison (score is projected over Cal-Poly, but 'carries over' to SD since C-P lost...I think)
Central Arkansas at Eastern Washington - FCS Playoffs - Second Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 3:30 PM
Central Arkansas +10½
Over/Under 66
Projected Score = About 38-28 Eagles
Massey = 35-28 Eagles
TeamBDMU = 42-24 Eagles
Wofford at The Citadel - FCS Playoffs - Second Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 6:00 PM
Wofford +2
Over/Under 40½
Projected Score = About 21-19 Bulldogs
Massey = 20-17 Bulldogs
TeamBDMU = 20-14 Terriers
Richmond at North Dakota - FCS Playoffs - Second Round - Saturday, December 03, 2016 6:00 PM
Richmond +1½
Over/Under 51
Projected Score = About 26-25 Fighting Hawks
Massey= 28-24 Fighting Hawks
TeamBDMU = 31-10 Fighting Hawks
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 2, 2016 12:40:41 GMT -5
DUE TO EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS, THE KICKOFF TIME FOR CHATTANOOGA @ SAM HOUSTON STATE HAS BEEN CHANGED FROM 3:00 PM to 12:00 PM (noon) EASTERN TIME
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Post by BearDownMU on Dec 2, 2016 15:29:59 GMT -5
Man, for the most part our scores are darn close to Massey's
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Dec 2, 2016 18:36:34 GMT -5
Looks like they're ready for the rain. |
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Post by BearDownMU on Dec 2, 2016 22:27:24 GMT -5
Isn't there a water shortage? Jesus...
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 3, 2016 9:53:23 GMT -5
Isn't there a water shortage? Jesus... ...and FIRES! |
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 3, 2016 9:58:11 GMT -5
DUE TO EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS, THE KICKOFF TIME FOR CHATTANOOGA @ SAM HOUSTON STATE HAS BEEN CHANGED FROM 3:00 PM to 12:00 PM (noon) EASTERN TIME This may have changed back now. I don't know. When I saw the time change on a message board, I believe I confirmed it on the SHSU website, but that site is now showing 2:00 PM (Central / 3:00 PM Eastern)... |
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 8, 2016 11:54:36 GMT -5
FINALLY...this week's FCS Playoffs Investment Guide has been released...
Sam Houston State at James Madison - FCS Playoffs - Quarterfinals - Friday, December 09, 2016 7:00 PM
Sam Houston State +3½
Over/Under 90½
Projected Score = about 47-44 Dukes
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = James Madison Dukes 48-46 with an 54% WIN Probability
Team BDMU Projected Winner/Score = James Madison Dukes 45-42
South Dakota State at North Dakota State - FCS Playoffs - Quarterfinals - Saturday, December 10, 2016 12:00 PM
South Dakota State +10
Over/Under 50½
Projected Score = about 30-20 Bison
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = NDSU Bison 31-20 with an 80% WIN Probability
Team BDMU Projected Winner/Score = NDSU Bison 38-21
Wofford at Youngstown State - FCS Playoffs - Quarterfinals - Saturday, December 10, 2016 2:00 PM
Wofford +5½
Over/Under 33½
Projected Score = about 19-14 Penguins
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = YSU Penguins 13-7 with a 67% WIN Probability
Team BDMU Projected Winner/Score = Wofford Terriers 24-21 (expected Wofford to beat JaxSt by this score, actually)
Richmond at Eastern Washington - FCS Playoffs - Quarterfinals - Saturday, December 10, 2016 4:00 PM
Richmond +12½
Over/Under 65½
Projected Score = about 39-27 Eagles
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = EWU Eagles 40-24 with an 87% WIN Probability
Team BDMU Projected Winner/Score = EWU Eagles 38-21 (expected EWU to beat North Dakota by this score, actually)
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 9, 2016 23:23:06 GMT -5
FINALLY...this week's FCS Playoffs Investment Guide has been released... Sam Houston State at James Madison - FCS Playoffs - Quarterfinals - Friday, December 09, 2016 7:00 PM Sam Houston State +3½ Over/Under 90½ Projected Score = about 47-44 Dukes
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = James Madison Dukes 48-46 with an 54% WIN Probability Team BDMU Projected Winner/Score = James Madison Dukes 45-42 So...we get 30 points for JMU winning, but lose 2.0 ((65-45)/10) on JMU's score + 3.5 ((42-7/10) on SHSU's score for a net of 30-(2.0+3.5) = 24.5 Correct? |
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Post by BearDownMU on Dec 11, 2016 2:39:13 GMT -5
FINALLY...this week's FCS Playoffs Investment Guide has been released... Sam Houston State at James Madison - FCS Playoffs - Quarterfinals - Friday, December 09, 2016 7:00 PM Sam Houston State +3½ Over/Under 90½ Projected Score = about 47-44 Dukes
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = James Madison Dukes 48-46 with an 54% WIN Probability Team BDMU Projected Winner/Score = James Madison Dukes 45-42 So...we get 30 points for JMU winning, but lose 2.0 ((65-45)/10) on JMU's score + 3.5 ((42-7/10) on SHSU's score for a net of 30-(2.0+3.5) = 24.5 Correct? Correct. And the standings are out. Heading into the Final Four, Team BearDownMU is leading the AGS Playoff Bracket Challenge by 3.3 points. We have 254. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 15, 2016 7:36:08 GMT -5
So...I'm sure everyone has been wondering about the details...and I'm elated to report, as BDMU mentioned earlier, that TeamBDMU regained our rightful place atop the 2016 AGS Playoff Bracket standings after the Quarterfinal Round of the Playoffs.
If Wofford had been able to get under center and pick up 1/2 yard for a 1st down or scored a TD from the 1 yard line in OT instead of snapping the ball back to the 6 yard line and fumbling a pitch out of bounds OR made a 53 yard FG (we were heavily counting on the PorchYappers Placekicking game being the difference-maker) at the end of regulation, we would have picked the final 4 correctly and probably closed out the contest...
But, we're still very much IN IT TO WIN IT! (although #2 and #4 have claimed to have picked the final 4 - that is unconfirmed at this time. If true, we do have a different result from #2 in the Championship game; and different score projections in all 3 remaining games, of course).
Point Totals for the Final 2 Rounds are BIG though (Semifinals - 50 / Finals - 100)...so anything could happen! With 200 points +/- score projection bonuses/penalties, it's really just about 'halftime' in the Challenge.
1 BearDownMU 254
2 The Kicker 250.7
3 centennial 241
4 NDSUFREAK 237.8
5 X-Factor 235.4
6 Rjones61 232
7 Bison Fan In NW MN 229.8
8 TheRevSFA 228.9
9 FlamingHot 228.6
10 Professor Chaos 226.7
11 footballer23 226.5
12 ElCid 225.7
13 jmudukes 223.3
14 TheKingpin28 219.5
15 DA BEAR 219.1
16 CommishBigSmooth 217.9
17 UIWWildthing 217.7
18 MarkyMark 217.6
19 melloware13 216.2
20 ST_Lawson 215.5
21 Bison56 215.2
22 Scrappy94 212.7
23 Milktruck74 212.4
24 Go Lehigh TU owl 211.6
25 UpstateBison 210.7
26 grizband 210.7
27 Bison87 210.6
28 Penguin Nation 209.5
29 Vermont 208.1
30 Bisonator 208.1
31 OhioHen 207.8
32 SDFS 205.3
33 BisonTru 205.2
34 Milkman 203.8
35 stevdock 201.4
36 Catatonic 201.3
37 Nickels 201.3
38 MTfan4life 201.1
39 Massey 201.1
40 Bear84 200.3
41 Jacks02 200.2
42 jacoj21 199.6
43 TheValleyRaider 199.4
44 GreatDayToBeAnEagle 198.9
45 4grz 198.6
46 Gangtackle11 198.3
47 Spider from the North 196.9
48 Bluefish845 196.6
49 THE DANIMAL 196.5
50 McNeese75 195.5
51 CockyGeek 195.2
52 NDSUtk 195
53 citdog 194.6
54 JMU2K_DukeDawg 192.5
55 Daytripper 192.4
56 GsephBison 191.9
57 hktribefan 191.1
58 bisoninloveland 191
59 caribbeanhen 190.3
60 Rollbird5 189.9
61 paward 189.9
62 Evolution Prime 189
63 dgtw 188.3
64 HailSzczur 188
65 BisonFan02 187.7
65 PantherRob82 187.7
67 WileECoyote06 187.3
68 RedFlash 187.2
68 The Yo Show 187.2
70 NDSU Fan 187
71 mamberso 186.5
72 Redbird007 186.3
73 ming01 186
74 Thunderstruck 183.8
75 Katfan 183.6
76 cpacmel 183.4
77 SportsLover 182.7
78 PurpleStreamers 182
79 Catbooster 181.6
80 Sioux24/7 181.5
81 Prime Power 180.6
82 flyrod 179.7
83 knucklehead 179.5
84 swaghook 179.3
85 clawman 177.9
86 BigHouseClosedEnd 173.8
87 Schism55 172.8
88 MR. CHICKEN 172.6
89 Mayville Bison 172.2
90 northdakota247 171.8
90 RDN88 171.8
92 kdinva 171
93 Mattymc727 170.5
94 JMUNJ08 169.8
95 SUPharmacist 169.6
96 MSUDuo 169.2
97 Pitz 169.1
98 MacThor 168.3
99 CappinHard 166.9
100 WrenFGun 165
101 Griz23 164.5
102 Lehigh'98 163
103 DCWIU11 161
104 bjtheflamesfan 159.9
105 DirtyDukes 158.5
106 LehighU11 157.9
107 F'N Hawks 157.6
108 ngineer 157.5
109 Hambone 156.7
110 jmufan999 155.8
111 reeder 155.7
112 kalm 154.9
113 taper 154.6
114 FCSbuff319 146.1
115 Loyl2u 144.4
116 tomq04 144.1
117 Drblankstare 143
118 RabidRabbit 134.6
119 JSUSoutherner 133
120 Preferred Walk-On 131.2
121 REALBird 131.2
122 70MilesFromCanada 131
123 Lehigh Football Nation 130.6
124 Thumper 76 129.7
125 POD Knows 128
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Post by FUBeAR on Dec 15, 2016 8:00:37 GMT -5
Always late during the Playoffs, but there is still time to call your 'broker' - Here is your FCS Playoffs Semi-Finals INVESTMENT GUIDE...
James Madison at North Dakota State - FCS Playoffs - Semifinals - Friday, December 16, 2016 7:00 PM
James Madison +8½
Over/Under 60½
Projected Score = about 35-26 Bison
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = 36-26 NDSU with a 77% WIN Probability for the Bison
TeamBDMU Projected Winner/Score = NDSU Bison 31-24
Youngstown State at Eastern Washington - FCS Playoffs - Semifinals - Saturday, December 17, 2016 6:30 PM
Youngstown State +8½
Over/Under 55
Projected Score = about 32-24 Eagles
Massey Matchup Projected Winner/Score = 31-24 EWU with a 71% WIN Probability for the Eagles
TeamBDMU Projected Winner/Score = EWU Eagles 35-17 (actually, TeamBDMU projected win/score is over Wofford; but with YSU having 5 key players recently suspended for failing the NCAA post-JSU-game drug screen (should have had those results BEFORE the Woffy game, DANGIT!) and/or Felony Arrests on Drug/Firearms charges on Tues. prior to Woffy game, I'm feeling OK with the larger margin that TeamBDMU projected, vis a vis the Investment Advisors & Massey)
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