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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 2, 2017 11:56:22 GMT -5
ETSU 35 - Furman 56
The Citadel 14 - Samford 35
Western Carolina 45 - UTC 7
Wofford 31 - Presbyterian 7
Furman is resurgent after a shaky start with a new first year coach, Western Carolina is all of a sudden a conference powerhouse, Samford didn't look like they could run or play defense all season and then figures out a way to bury Citadel. Wofford has won plenty but every game looks like a serious grind, UTC couldn't find themselves on offense with a map and a flashlight. It's a strange moon in the SoCon this season.
There is really an extraordinary amount of parity in the conference at the moment, I think. I was talking with FUBeAR yesterday and, short of VMI, I would not be surprised at all if anyone beat anyone. Everyone has looked OK and then not so OK, depending on the game and or quarter. For me, it's flip a coin on any of the remaining conference games for any team. Who knows?
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Post by jackal on Oct 2, 2017 12:06:16 GMT -5
I generally agree. Right now, VMI is well behind the pack.
Each of the remaining teams show flashes of impressive play, but all have some warts.
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 2, 2017 15:27:59 GMT -5
The polls are also a little crazy. I know WCU has a ton of history to overcome to get taken seriously or gain respect, but in most polls we are behind Samford after beating them head-to-head, and Samford is behind Citadel after spanking them this past weekend. We all know there is some good football being played in the SoCon, but if we all (WCU, Citadel, Wofford, Samford, Furman, Mercer) beat each other up and there are several 2-loss teams in league play, I am afraid we will go back to the 1 to no more than 2 teams making the playoffs. FUBeAR usually has the serious math on these things, so what is the consensus on the league from outside the league? Seems to me like there are 4 or 5 conferences that have at least 1 team (several with multiple teams) ranked higher than the 2nd-highest ranked SoCon team. And if WCU somehow lucks out and pulls out a win against Wofford, I would think WCU, Samford, Wofford, and Citadel all get lumped together in the 15-20 spots of rankings. I know 24 teams get in, and I know that there is a whole lot of football to be played before any of that matters. But WCU is still hurting from our last 7-win season where we lost 2 SoCon games and 2 games to SEC teams and were snubbed.
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 2, 2017 16:18:04 GMT -5
The Coaches Poll is a bit of a joke. And what you are describing is entirely possible. Unfortunately for us (meaning the SoCon) is that we don't have a bunch of signature out of conference wins. So, if we do beat each other up, we certainly might get excluded come selection time. But, after the good showing last year, assuming there aren't total melt downs, it seems like we would have to get at least two in.
As far as WCU, you guys appear to be the class of the league at this point. Wofford, while having the wins, hasn't really had a statement type of win. that's the beauty of this weekend, tho. The rubber will meet the proverbial road.
However, I think if the Cats do beat Wofford this weekend, you would have to jump up the rankings pretty darn high. In the 10-15 range, I would imagine. But, again, the polls are kinda trash.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 3, 2017 0:52:14 GMT -5
The polls are also a little crazy. I know WCU has a ton of history to overcome to get taken seriously or gain respect, but in most polls we are behind Samford after beating them head-to-head, and Samford is behind Citadel after spanking them this past weekend. We all know there is some good football being played in the SoCon, but if we all (WCU, Citadel, Wofford, Samford, Furman, Mercer) beat each other up and there are several 2-loss teams in league play, I am afraid we will go back to the 1 to no more than 2 teams making the playoffs. FUBeAR usually has the serious math on these things, so what is the consensus on the league from outside the league? Seems to me like there are 4 or 5 conferences that have at least 1 team (several with multiple teams) ranked higher than the 2nd-highest ranked SoCon team. And if WCU somehow lucks out and pulls out a win against Wofford, I would think WCU, Samford, Wofford, and Citadel all get lumped together in the 15-20 spots of rankings. I know 24 teams get in, and I know that there is a whole lot of football to be played before any of that matters. But WCU is still hurting from our last 7-win season where we lost 2 SoCon games and 2 games to SEC teams and were snubbed. I had it figured right (4 SoCon Teams IN) way ahead of everyone last year...and like some gambling websites, I should probably 'sell' that 'success' for the next 20 years...but, to be honest... I have no clue at this point. I don't think many other Conferences have Teams with great OOC wins either. I think the MVFC tries to prop up their wins over Big Sky (Big Lie) Teams as good wins. From where I sit, the Big South is much better than the Big Lie...but that's a hard sell in national circles. Likewise, the CAA Boys load up on wins over Patsy, Ivy, and MEAC Teams and trot those out as "quality wins." BS - we saw Furman running circles around Colgate. On the other hand, even though it looks better now, FU's loss to Elon will bite SoCon Team's in the butt come selection day...unless Furman tanks from this point on...and that ain't gonna happen w/my man, Coach Hendrix, at the switch. Paladins are looking SWEEEEET! So...my S.W.A.G. right now would be, most likely...3 Teams IN & some SoCon Team, maybe 2...which should be in...get screwed. Which 3 Teams? ...no clue. I would only rule out VMI at this time. |
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Post by jackal on Oct 3, 2017 7:21:19 GMT -5
This season sets up a little like 2013, where there really wasn't a clear dominant team. 3 teams finished with 2 conference losses and 2 made the post season.
There may still be a shot for four teams if a couple of programs hover around the 8 win mark. I do think that the lack of quality OOC wins are going to be problematic. I think that the best OOC wins right now are Furman's victory over Colgate and Samford's win over KSU.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 3, 2017 7:57:27 GMT -5
I think that the best OOC wins right now are Furman's victory over Colgate and Samford's win over KSU. LOL... Colgate is 2-3 with their only wins over a winless, 0-3, Ivy & a winless, 0-5, Big Lie. KSU was 16 seconds away from losing to a D2 last week. Other than that squeaker, their wins are over a winless (0-5) OVC & a winless (0-4) SWAC. So, you’re saying the SoCon’s best OOC wins are over Teams whose only D1 wins (4) are over Teams from WEAK conferences with a combined record of 0-17. |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 3, 2017 8:20:54 GMT -5
I think 3+ is certainly doable assuming the SoCon has 3 teams with 2 or fewer conference losses (and all 3 are in the majority of the top-25 polls - although we are seeing how flawed those are). If you get to 3 SoCon losses it would seem like a very unlikely scenario to get in, but who knows. WCU could easily go 3-3 to finish the season and have an ugly loss to the UNC Tarholes in the last game, be 7-5 and 5-3 in conference, and get left out again. We still have to play Wofford this weekend (clearly as underdogs), and have Citadel, Furman, and you guys on our schedule. So the way I see it, we have to get at least a 2-2 split or better and win 8 games (beat ETSU and VMI) to actually feel comfortable that a playoff bid will be coming. Again, a lot of football to play, but I'm thinking for a program like Western's, you have to be no worse than 6-2 in your league and get to 8 wins when you have a 12-game season. Maybe if we get to a 3rd season in 4 with at least 7 wins it would make a difference going forward, but it doesn't right now (and doesn't help that we had an absolute stinker season last year). Still gotta play them all and win the majority, but fun to project and see what others think about the conference's chances.
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 3, 2017 8:22:46 GMT -5
Sorry - meant 3-3 in conference and 3-4 overall to finish out to go 7-5 and not make it (can't edit my post as a guest).
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 3, 2017 8:34:34 GMT -5
(can't edit my post as a guest). So...join...don’t cost nuthin’ |
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 3, 2017 10:20:42 GMT -5
Sorry - meant 3-3 in conference and 3-4 overall to finish out to go 7-5 and not make it (can't edit my post as a guest). If you'd just get an actual account, this wouldn't be an issue.  |
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Post by jackal on Oct 3, 2017 15:08:21 GMT -5
I think that the best OOC wins right now are Furman's victory over Colgate and Samford's win over KSU. LOL... Colgate is 2-3 with their only wins over a winless, 0-3, Ivy & a winless, 0-5, Big Lie. KSU was 16 seconds away from losing to a D2 last week. Other than that squeaker, their wins are over a winless (0-5) OVC & a winless (0-4) SWAC. So, you’re saying the SoCon’s best OOC wins are over Teams whose only D1 wins (4) are over Teams from WEAK conferences with a combined record of 0-17. I didn't say they were impressive wins. I'm just stating they are the most impressive of the wins the conference has. Or would you put Mercer's win over Jacksonville? ETSU over Limestone? Samford over West Alabama? Wins over Presbyterian, Newberry, and winless Gardner Webb? Colgate and Kennesaw State are at least arguably "decent" teams. Every other non conference win has been over pretty underwhelming competition. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 3, 2017 16:02:39 GMT -5
LOL... Colgate is 2-3 with their only wins over a winless, 0-3, Ivy & a winless, 0-5, Big Lie. KSU was 16 seconds away from losing to a D2 last week. Other than that squeaker, their wins are over a winless (0-5) OVC & a winless (0-4) SWAC. So, you’re saying the SoCon’s best OOC wins are over Teams whose only D1 wins (4) are over Teams from WEAK conferences with a combined record of 0-17. I didn't say they were impressive wins. I'm just stating they are the most impressive of the wins the conference has. Or would you put Mercer's win over Jacksonville? ETSU over Limestone? Samford over West Alabama? Wins over Presbyterian, Newberry, and winless Gardner Webb? Colgate and Kennesaw State are at least arguably "decent" teams. Every other non conference win has been over pretty underwhelming competition. You forgot WCU's win over Davidson...and that's it...that's all of 'em. So, yeah...you're right...those ARE the best OOC Wins...and they really SUCK as much as a 'quality win' can possibly suck. |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 3, 2017 16:18:32 GMT -5
All that outlines my concern for the SoCon. Unless some of us find success against FBS teams in those last 2 weekends, does anybody else have any additional OOC games left? It would seem nothing the SoCon has done in OOC games helps the league. Now if Western can keep winning and then beat UNC, or if Mercer can beat Alabama...
I didn't look at all the schedules, but just know those 2 "money games" off the top of my head. But it all strengthens the point that any SoCon team who makes the playoffs will at worst need to be 6-2 in the league (in my opinion).
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Post by jackal on Oct 3, 2017 20:16:54 GMT -5
All that outlines my concern for the SoCon. Unless some of us find success against FBS teams in those last 2 weekends, does anybody else have any additional OOC games left? It would seem nothing the SoCon has done in OOC games helps the league. Now if Western can keep winning and then beat UNC, or if Mercer can beat Alabama... I didn't look at all the schedules, but just know those 2 "money games" off the top of my head. But it all strengthens the point that any SoCon team who makes the playoffs will at worst need to be 6-2 in the league (in my opinion). ETSU plays Robert Morris this week (who shut out VMI earlier this year) Mercer plays Alabama WCU plays UNC Wofford plays USC The Citadel plays Clemson So, yeah, if we can pick off maybe 3 or 4 of those it would help raise the national profile. |
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