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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 8, 2018 21:04:27 GMT -5
Let's take a look in at what Mr. Massey has to say about Mercer's game @ Yale this week... Massey Matchup Tool Projects... Team | Mercer | Yale | Most Likely Score | 27 | 35 | Win Probability | 26% | 74% |
...and Mr. Massey currently has this to say about Mercer, the SoCon, and Mercer's other 2018 opponents...
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Post by MUfan on Oct 9, 2018 7:31:18 GMT -5
If we finish the projected 6-5, I will be disappointed. Need this game v Yale to give us a chance to do better than that dreaded 6-5.
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 9, 2018 14:15:37 GMT -5
Go Mercer! Won't matter for my poor Catamounts, but the SoCon needs a decent OOC win.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 9, 2018 20:08:02 GMT -5
TALE OF THE TAPE...based upon both Teams' Depth Charts included in their Game Notes for this game Yale - a few changes in the DL, the Secondary, and at backup WR for the Bulldogs. Overall the changes were minimal in terms of size - slightly smaller in most cases, but Experience Rating went up in all but one case (2-Deep Defense - where I think they 'swapped' a backup Sr. DB for a backup FR DB). The overall increase in experience tells me that, most likely, they are getting some guys back this week from early season injuries. Welp - I spoke too soon when I speculated that there wouldn't be significant changes in Mercer's Depth Chart. It seems that Mr. Riddle's injury was just the first bite from the injury bug that now seems to have infested Mercer. Seems the Bears will now have a True Freshman starting at Center @ Yale. He had been a back-up OT until this week. Also a change at RG due to injury in the VMI game. On the other side of the ball, it seems 2 All SoCon-level Starters and Team Captains are now OUT for the Yale game. A DE and a SS, who, actually did not play @ VMI either. Also, a starting LB, who was injured in the game with The Citadel is not back yet. That means 1 Starter out at each level of the D. Not good news. Mercer Game Notes - YALE BULLDOGS(2-2, 1-1 Ivy) - October 13, 2018 l 1 p.m. ET l New Haven, Conn. l Yale Bowl (61,446)Yale Game Notes: 2018 Yale Football • 146th Season • 15 Ivy League Titles • 26 National Champions • First Meeting of Yale and MercerTotT below is updated to reflect ALL changes. Significant reduction in Mercer's OL size and experience level Category | Mercer | Yale | Avg. Size OL Starters
| 6' 4" 278 | 6' 4" 292 | Exp. "Rating" OL Starters | 1.70
| 1.80 | Avg Size OL 2-Deep
| 6' 3" 284 | 6' 4" 291 | Exp. "Rating" OL 2-Deep
| 1.20 | 1.90 | Avg. Size DL Starters
| 6' 3" 284 | 6' 4" 254 | Exp. Rating DL Starters
| 2.83 | 2.50 | Avg Size DL 2-Deep
| 6' 3" 280 | 6' 3" 258 | Exp. "Rating" DL 2-Deep
| 2.17 | 2.25 | Avg. Size D-Front 7 Starters
| 6' 1" 247 | 6' 2" 240 | Exp. "Rating" D-Front 7 Starters
| 2.71 | 2.00 | Avg. Size D-Front 7 2-Deep | 6' 1" 245 | 6' 2" 243 | Exp. "Rating" D-Front 7 2-Deep
| 2.29 | 1.86 | Avg. Size Offense Starters
| 6' 3" 243 | 6' 3" 246 | Exp. "Rating" Offense Starters
| 1.91 | 1.82 | Avg. Size Offense 2-Deep
| 6' 2" 244 | 6' 3" 245 | Exp. "Rating" Offense 2-Deep
| 1.41 | 1.91 | Avg. Size Defense Starters
| 6' 0" 229 | 6' 1" 220 | Exp. "Rating" Defense Starters
| 2.14 | 1.82 | Avg. Size Defense 2-Deep
| 6' 0" 228 | 6' 1" 223 | Exp. "Rating" Defense 2-Deep
| 2.02 | 1.59 | Avg. Size ALL O&D Starters
| 6' 1" 236 | 6' 2" 233 | Exp. "Rating" ALL O&D Starters
| 2.02 | 1.82 | Avg. Size ALL O&D 2-Deep
| 6' 1" 236 | 6' 2" 234 | Exp. "Rating" ALL O&D 2-Deep
| 1.72 | 1.75 | Avg. Size Entire Roster | 6' 1" 227 | 6' 2" 226 | Exp. "Rating" Entire Roster | 1.20 | 1.38 |
Very evenly matched size-wise. Mercer maintains a bit of an experience advantage in most areas, but the Bulldogs are much more experienced than Mercer's 2 recent opponents. Something to consider with regard to experience is that the Ivy League does not allow their schools to Redshirt Players. So, there are not 0.5 points 'padding' their listed Players' experience ratings. Whether or not their redshirting rule causes Ivy League Coaches to play their Players earlier or not, I don't know.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 10, 2018 9:22:23 GMT -5
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 10, 2018 14:09:44 GMT -5
Yale Football Blog has published their “Mercer Preview” here: yalefb.com
A few excerpts...
“Mercer is a fast and talented squad that is 3-1 against FCS teams this season.”
“Keep in mind Mercer is coming off of a bye week and has had two weeks to study film on the Bulldogs.”
“Mercer’s top receiver, Marquise Irvin, is a big target (6’3″, 216 lbs.) with sticky hands. Irvin is averaging over 16 yards per catch. Irvin’s fellow wideout, Stephen Houzah, is a big-play threat who has hauled in receptions of 73 yards and 55 yards.”
“Tee Mitchell and Tyray Devezin are likely the best running backs we have faced this season to date. Mitchell is averaging 5 yards per carry while Devezin is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per carry. Devezin is a physical specimen at 5’8″, 233 lbs. with legs like tree trunks.”
“Mercer’s offensive line averages 293 lbs. and judging from their press conference, they will be looking to establish the ground game early on in this contest.”
“Redshirt Junior linebacker Will Coneway leads the Bears defense with 43 tackles, 2 tackles for losses, and one sack. The Bears are very deep at linebacker with 7 different members of the corps that have ten tackles or more.”
“Malique Fleming is a sizable free safety at 208 lbs. who has been playing very well this season after being nominated to the All-Freshman team in the Southern Conference a year ago.”
“Redshirt Senior Isaiah Buehler is the most experience defensive lineman as a four year starter and captain of the team.”
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 10, 2018 21:43:29 GMT -5
bump - updated "tale of the tape" adding info from Mercer's game notes - a few posts before this one. More changes than expected. Even with the off-week, Mercer seems to be a bit short-handed due to injury (6 Starters OUT - QB Riddle (obviously), OG Robinson, C May, DE Buehler (Captain), ILB Otiwu, SS Jackson (Captain)) - 3 on each side of the ball & all 6 (to borrow a baseball term) "up the middle" Players - NOT Good news!
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Post by Uncle Bo on Oct 11, 2018 6:04:55 GMT -5
Well calling for rain Saturday AM up till game time. The line moved to Mercer+3 Tuesday, +4 1/2 this morning. Fubear who has the advantage on this wet grass field, the OL or the DL? Hope our speed won't be lost trying to get moving.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 11, 2018 6:41:31 GMT -5
Well calling for rain Saturday AM up till game time. Fubear who has the advantage on this wet grass field, the OL or the DL? Hope our speed won't be lost trying to get moving. Not as simple an answer as it would seem... 1) Whichever Team/Players who have the most experience playing on a grass surface, a muddy surface, and one that is mowed at an unusually high height...has a distinct advantage. They will have ‘tuned’ their footwear and their techniques to optimize playing on such a surface. I think the answer to which Team that is...is quite obvious...unfortunately. 2) In general, the Player who ‘knows here he’s intending to go’ has an advantage over the one who is reacting to what another Player does. So, WR’s have an advantage over DB’s, particularly DB’s in Man coverage...but that advantage is compromised because of the timing involved in many/most pass plays. Retrievers may know WHERE they are going, but it still takes them longer to get there than it ‘usually’ does, so the timing of the Play is different for the WR & the QB. Both Teams like to throw it, but 1 is used to the timing of plays on the ‘slop’ and the other isn’t...unfortunately. 3) DLmen sometimes know where they are going pre-snap & sometimes they are playing “read & react.” If they are playing “read & react,” the OL has an advantage. If the DL ‘charge’ is predetermined, then there is no advantage for the OL. I’m not really sure which Team does more of which technique on D...so I don’t really know how that’s going to play out. 4) Shifty RB’s who rely on dramatic 1-foot cuts (as opposed to ‘jump-cuts’) are seriously compromised. The outside zone play, which Mercer ran very effectively vs. VMI, relies on the RB seeing a seam, STICKING A FOOT IN THE GROUND, and bursting into that seam North-South-wise. I doubt we will see Mercer running much outside zone this week. That play is a Tee Mitchell specialty...unfortunately (this week only...very fortunate to have him running it otherwise.) 5) Straight-ahead, downhill RB’s, think Jerome Bettis, have a definite advantage on this kind of surface. I think we may see A LOT of Mercer’s version of “The Bus” - Tyray (“MTA”) Devezin - this week...fortunately. As you noted, it would SEEM that Mercer has an advantage in overall speed over Yale. I’m not 100% sure that’s true because it’s hard to tell how fast they are running on that muddy track. IF Mercer is faster on artificial turf than Yale is, the Bears will still be relatively faster on mud. BUT, I believe the difference is lessened by the surface. A Ferrari may go from 0-60 in X.X seconds on asphalt, while a family sedan gets to 60 much slower. On mud, if both are able to go at all, the difference in the time they get to 60 will be reduced...I think. BOTTOM-LINE - It sucks that this game has to be played on this quality of a surface. Yale’s endowment is near $30 BILLION. Mercer’s $329 Million. That field is the ‘front lawn’ of the ‘front porch’ (The Yale Bowl) of Yale University. Have you ever seen a billionaire’s mansion with a front lawn in that condition? Hardly!
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 23, 2018 17:21:39 GMT -5
Yale QB Kurt Rawlings out for the yearWithout him, Mercer would have beaten Yale by at least 2 scores...even after falling behind 21-0. I feel terrible for the young man & for his Teammates as he was the proverbial 'straw that stirs the drink' for the Elis. Didn’t see enough of his backup to really assess Yale’s chances to continue their winning ways without Rawlings, but I would be surprised if the dropoff is not precipitous.
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Post by FUBeAR on Mar 19, 2019 21:23:33 GMT -5
Thought someone might enjoy these pics of Yale's field. If you take away the full-scale Tonka Toys, this is pretty much what the turf looked like when Mercer played @ Yale last Fall... * They are installing Field Turf...If they had done this last Spring, Mercer wins that game by 3 scores!
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