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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 30, 2021 17:05:19 GMT -5
Not 100% sure, but FUBeAR thinks today is the 1st time Mercer has ever been in sole possession of 1st Place in the SoCon Football standings… SCHOOL
| CONF
| CPCT.
| CONF. HOME
| CONF. AWAY
| CONF. STREAK
| OVERALL
| PCT.
| HOME
| AWAY
| STREAK
| Mercer
| 5-1
| 0.833 | 2-1 | 3-0 | W2 | 6-2 | 0.750 | 3-1 | 3-1 | W2 | ETSU
| 4-1
| 0.800 | 2-0 | 2-1 | W1 | 7-1 | 0.875 | 4-0 | 3-1 | W1 | VMI
| 4-1
| 0.800 | 3-0 | 1-1 | W3 | 6-2 | 0.750 | 4-0 | 2-2 | W3 | Chattanooga
| 4-1
| 0.800 | 3-0 | 1-1 | W3 | 5-3 | 0.625 | 3-1 | 2-2 | W3 | Furman
| 2-3
| 0.400 | 1-2 | 1-1 | L2 | 4-4 | 0.500 | 2-2 | 2-2 | L2 | Western Carolina
| 2-3
| 0.400 | 0-2 | 2-1 | W2 | 2-6 | 0.250 | 0-3 | 2-3 | W2 | Samford
| 2-4
| 0.333 | 0-2 | 2-2 | L2 | 3-5 | 0.375 | 1-2 | 2-3 | L2 | The Citadel
| 1-4
| 0.200 | 1-2 | 0-2 | L4 | 2-6 | 0.250 | 2-3 | 0-3 | L4 | Wofford
| 0-6
| 0.000 | 0-3 | 0-3 | L6 | 1-7 | 0.125 | 0-4 | 1-3 | L7 |
Congrats to Players, Coaches, Staff, Athletic Admin, University Admin.! VMI is @ ETSU this week, while Mercer is off. So, one of those 2 Teams will be tied with Mercer heading into the final 2 games. Most likely, Chattanooga will also be tied with the Bears. If ETSU beats VMI, Mercer will control their own destiny. That means if ETSU beats VMI, Mercer can win the SoCon Championship outright & earn the SoCon’s Automatic Qualifying (AQ) bid to the FCS Playoffs by winning their final 2 games over Chattanooga & ETSU. So, Bears fans should be ETSU fans this week. It could also be helpful if Wofford were to defeat Chattanooga in Spartanburg on Saturday…but that is not going to happen. Wofford’s program is in a flaming death spiral and Chattanooga is a very good Football Team. So is ETSU. If Mercer is to accomplish their goals, they will certainly have to EARN it. |
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Post by mumd on Nov 6, 2021 17:17:07 GMT -5
Well now the stage is set. Mercer “controls its own destiny” thanks to the VMI loss. It’s very simple now: we win out and we are in. C’mon Bears let’s do this!!!
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Post by FUBeAR on Nov 7, 2021 0:42:45 GMT -5
Well now the stage is set. Mercer “controls its own destiny” thanks to the VMI loss. It’s very simple now: we win out and we are in. C’mon Bears let’s do this!!! Winning out equals… 1) Outright SoCon Championship 2) Automatic Qualifying bid to the FCS Playoffs Losing either game equals… 1) No SoCon Championship* 2) No bid to FCS Playoffs* * There are scenarios that either/both of these would remain possible in the event of Mercer losing only 1 of the next 2 games, but FUBeAR sees the probability of any of those scenarios occurring as < 1% |
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Post by mumd on Nov 8, 2021 20:00:12 GMT -5
There are scenarios that either/both of these would remain possible in the event of Mercer losing only 1 of the next 2 games, but FUBeAR sees the probability of any of those scenarios occurring as < 1% Not much love in the polls today. Nobody has us in the Top 25. I said it then and I’ll say it again: the way we lost to VMI canned any chance at an at-large bid. If the Bears split the last 2 games and end up with the same conference record as the Keydets there is absolutely no way the committee would vote Mercer in. So it’s all-or-nothing these next two weeks. At least that’s my humble opinion. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Nov 9, 2021 2:52:26 GMT -5
There are scenarios that either/both of these would remain possible in the event of Mercer losing only 1 of the next 2 games, but FUBeAR sees the probability of any of those scenarios occurring as < 1% Not much love in the polls today. Nobody has us in the Top 25. I said it then and I’ll say it again: the way we lost to VMI canned any chance at an at-large bid. If the Bears split the last 2 games and end up with the same conference record as the Keydets there is absolutely no way the committee would vote Mercer in. So it’s all-or-nothing these next two weeks. At least that’s my humble opinion. FUBeAR believes with a high likelihood you are correct. However, if Mercer should beat Chattanooga, but lose to ETSU…and ETSU loses to WCU and VMI loses to Furman and/or ETSU…that would result in a 3-way time (Mercer, Chatt, and ETSU) for 1st at 6-2 with each Team 1-1 vs. the other 2. All would be SoCon Champions and the next tie-breaker is record against 4th place finisher, which could be WCU…which would knock ETSU out (in this scenario) and Mercer would own the H2H over Chatt & get the AutoBid…so, it can happen in ways that are complex. Depending on how other ‘bubble games’ break, if Mercer really thumped 1 of ETSU or Chatt and, say, lost an OT game…by a 2-pt conversion to the other…an At-Large may be possible…slim chances, but possible. Scheduling is the 1st issue that is biting the Bears in the butt. No FCS Team, that hopes to be in contention for a Playoff spot, should ever schedule less than 11 games. Also, D2 /NAIA games, while occasionally, unfortunately necessary should be avoided if at all possible. Playing 2 “money games” is also risky…but at least there is some known ROI on taking that risk. If Mercer doesn’t get the AutoBid, the Playoff Committee will view Mercer’s record this year as no better than 6-2. The loss to Alabama & the win over Point ‘don’t count’ in their eyes. Almost impossible for a SoCon Team to get an At-large bid with only 6 D1 wins…and in this case, only 1 of those will (possibly) be viewed as a “good win.” And, you are right, the manner of the loss to VMI is very damaging. Reckon could we appeal to have that one recorded, ex post facto, as 2-0 forfeit for Covid reasons. Don’t think any Bears had Covid…but neither did UTC’s or Wofford’s Players when they ‘opted out’ due to Covid this Spring. |
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Post by speakindatruth on Nov 9, 2021 12:53:52 GMT -5
Not much love in the polls today. Nobody has us in the Top 25. I said it then and I’ll say it again: the way we lost to VMI canned any chance at an at-large bid. If the Bears split the last 2 games and end up with the same conference record as the Keydets there is absolutely no way the committee would vote Mercer in. So it’s all-or-nothing these next two weeks. At least that’s my humble opinion. FUBeAR believes with a high likelihood you are correct. However, if Mercer should beat Chattanooga, but lose to ETSU…and ETSU loses to WCU and VMI loses to Furman and/or ETSU…that would result in a 3-way time (Mercer, Chatt, and ETSU) for 1st at 6-2 with each Team 1-1 vs. the other 2. All would be SoCon Champions and the next tie-breaker is record against 4th place finisher, which could be WCU…which would knock ETSU out (in this scenario) and Mercer would own the H2H over Chatt & get the AutoBid…so, it can happen in ways that are complex. Depending on how other ‘bubble games’ break, if Mercer really thumped 1 of ETSU or Chatt and, say, lost an OT game…by a 2-pt conversion to the other…an At-Large may be possible…slim chances, but possible. Scheduling is the 1st issue that is biting the Bears in the butt. No FCS Team, that hopes to be in contention for a Playoff spot, should ever schedule less than 11 games. Also, D2 /NAIA games, while occasionally, unfortunately necessary should be avoided if at all possible. Playing 2 “money games” is also risky…but at least there is some known ROI on taking that risk. If Mercer doesn’t get the AutoBid, the Playoff Committee will view Mercer’s record this year as no better than 6-2. The loss to Alabama & the win over Point ‘don’t count’ in their eyes. Almost impossible for a SoCon Team to get an At-large bid with only 6 D1 wins…and in this case, only 1 of those will (possibly) be viewed as a “good win.” And, you are right, the manner of the loss to VMI is very damaging. Reckon could we appeal to have that one recorded, ex post facto, as 2-0 forfeit for Covid reasons. Don’t think any Bears had Covid…but neither did UTC’s or Wofford’s Players when they ‘opted out’ due to Covid this Spring. I believe the largest obstacle is the D2 game, and that may primarily be opponent choice even though I know D2 games do not count. Moving forward I am sure the Athletic Department will not make the same mistake. I believe the game was designed to boost the guys confidence and put the Bears in the news with such a large win. Maybe now is when you venture over to an annual game with Kennesaw State. Trey Lamb, with ties to Mercer, is at Gardner Webb. I believe those games would be competitive, would help in recruiting, would count in rankings, and when done early enough show you where the team is at. The overall appearance of the Conference is the main Achilles heel. The SOCON is not viewed as a dominant force as it once was. To me that is the largest hurdle. |
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Post by Clueless Fan on Nov 9, 2021 16:59:20 GMT -5
Yes, to KSU in the future, but I would like to see W&M, Richmond and Elon on the schedule.
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Post by sowegabear on Nov 14, 2021 12:06:43 GMT -5
New to the board. If I missed the answer to this question somewhere, sorry!
Why did Mercer only schedule 10 games? Surely this wasn’t on purpose. It’s one thing to schedule one less game, but it’s another to do that and then one of the 10 you do play be against Point. What’s the story behind the schedule?
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Post by sowegabear on Nov 14, 2021 12:13:26 GMT -5
Yes, to KSU in the future, but I would like to see W&M, Richmond and Elon on the schedule. All of those would be solid options, especially Richmond. When it comes to non-conference games, I would like to see Mercer play Ga Southern, Troy or UAB. Short road trips for the fans against D1 schools. Of course they have to be willing to schedule us. |
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Post by sowegabear on Nov 14, 2021 12:35:30 GMT -5
www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-10-21/2021-fcs-playoff-bracket-predictions-teams-seeds-picksFound this article that was dated 10/22. At that time, this was projecting Chattanooga as winning the SoCon and ETSU and VMI getting at large bids. It had Mercer as one of about 5 teams just missing out on the bubble. Well, the last 3 weeks have certainly changed that picture. Chattanooga isn’t winning the SoCon and VMI has lost twice since then and could be out of the picture. Obviously we need to beat ETSU to remove the doubt, but if we were a fringe bubble team in some folks eyes back on 10/22, perhaps sole possession of second place in the SoCon could get us in if things don’t go our way in Johnson City.
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Post by Clueless Fan on Nov 14, 2021 15:57:06 GMT -5
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Post by speakindatruth on Nov 14, 2021 16:41:06 GMT -5
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Post by sowegabear on Nov 14, 2021 17:11:27 GMT -5
How in the hell do we beat Chattanooga and they move up 6 spots in the rankings?!?!?
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Post by FUBeAR on Nov 14, 2021 18:08:14 GMT -5
Relax y’all - that is last week’s poll. It will update on Monday 11/15. Here’s the link to the source… FCS Football - RANKINGS - FCS COACHES POLLNow, Chatt was 19 & Mercer was 30…so the Bears may not overtake the Mocs. Unfortunately, the “Coaches” Poll is mostly Sports Information Directors doing the voting and they don’t exactly study all Teams…nor, necessarily, know very much about Football. Some do…but others are good writers & may have been the waterperson for the women’s bowling team while they were in school. |
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Post by mumd on Nov 14, 2021 18:52:19 GMT -5
www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-10-21/2021-fcs-playoff-bracket-predictions-teams-seeds-picksFound this article that was dated 10/22. At that time, this was projecting Chattanooga as winning the SoCon and ETSU and VMI getting at large bids. It had Mercer as one of about 5 teams just missing out on the bubble. Well, the last 3 weeks have certainly changed that picture. Chattanooga isn’t winning the SoCon and VMI has lost twice since then and could be out of the picture. Obviously we need to beat ETSU to remove the doubt, but if we were a fringe bubble team in some folks eyes back on 10/22, perhaps sole possession of second place in the SoCon could get us in if things don’t go our way in Johnson City. There’s talk that the 10 game schedule will eliminate us from at large bid consideration. That and the walloping VMI gave us. |
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