FCS Sagarin Ratings

FUBeAR
Five Star Bear

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Posts: 2,168

FCS Sagarin Ratings Sept 9, 2015 13:01:56 GMT -5

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Post by FUBeAR on Sept 9, 2015 13:01:56 GMT -5

I posted this on AGS, but thought maybe more BearsFans might see it here and be interested...

Sagarin Ratings released yesterday show the SoCon as the 3rd best Conference overall in FCS, just behind MVFC and Big Sky...

Rnk Conference - Avg Team Rating of that Conference - Ratings Points Behind Next Higher Conference - Ratings Points Behind Leader - FUBeAR's # of Playoff Bids 'Due'
1 MVFC - 59.50 - 0 - 0 - 5

2 Big Sky - 51.40 - 8.1 - 8.1 - 4
3 SoCon - 50.73 - 0.67 - 8.77 - 4

4 CAA - 47.99 - 2.74 - 11.51 - 2
5 OVC - 45.46 - 2.53 - 14.04 - 2
6 Southland - 42.70 - 2.76 - 16.8 - 2
7 Big South - 41.78 - 0.92 - 17.72 - 2

8 Patriot - 40.14 - 1.64 - 19.36 - 1
9 IVY - 38.56 - 1.58 - 20.94 - 0 (do not participate in Playoffs)
10 NEC - 36.21 - 2.35 - 23.29 - 1
11 MEAC - 33.91 - 2.3 - 25.59 - 0 (do not participate in Playoffs as of 2015)

12 SWAC - 28.30 - 5.61 - 31.2 - 0 (do not participate in Playoffs)

13 PFL - 23.95 - 4.35 - 35.55 - 1

(Gaps are intentional to show 'tiers' based on 'spread' between the next higher conference & # of 'deserved' playoff bids)

In 2014, the obviously top ranked conference (MVFC) had 5 teams in the Playoffs. The CAA had 4 teams in the playoffs, so that was obviously the 2nd best conference. The Big Sky and the Southland each had 3 teams in the playoffs, so those conferences must have been tied for 3rd best. So, looking at these rankings and the 'spread' between 1 & 2, I'd say that the MVFC gets 5 teams in again. Then 2nd and 3rd ranked conferences are very close with a bit of distance between those ranked 3rd and 4th, so I'm wondering...does the SoCon get 3 or 4 Teams in the Playoffs in 2015?

I would say Samford, with a big, impressive win over a quality opponent, demonstrated they are playoff-caliber. Chatt and Furman, with very narrow losses to teams that are both ranked #1 in FCS in different polls and consensus Top 5, showed that they shouldn't be left out of any playoff conversation.

So, who will get that 4th Playoff bid that the SoCon deserves?

Citadel, WCU, and Mercer all took care of business and met expectations.
VMI exceeded expectations in a great battle with an FBS opponent
Wofford faced an FBS juggernaut in the Clempsun Tiggers, and I would say also met expectations...considering that.

So....I know there's only 1 week in the books, but the SoCon - top-to-bottom, may (and maybe should) ALL contend for Playoff bids this year.

BTW - The SoCon was the ONLY Full-63-Scholarship, playoff participating Conference in 2014 that only rec'd 1 playoff bid. That should not happen in 2015. If it does, perhaps the SoCon should follow the example of our forefathers and secede from the FCS. Perhaps some of our friends from El Cid can give us some pointers on THAT process.

#4ForTheSoCon2015

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2015 16:31:35 GMT -5 by FUBeAR

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he today that sheds his blood with me, shall be my brother.

wcugrad95
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FCS Sagarin Ratings Sept 10, 2015 10:15:25 GMT -5

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Post by wcugrad95 on Sept 10, 2015 10:15:25 GMT -5

I am not sure a single week's numbers are enough of a sampling to gauge the league strength for the year (didn't you also post some other numerical breakdown that showed Mercer should be statistically considered the best team in the country???). I looked back over the past 6 seasons (didn't bother to go farther than that), and the SoCon maxed at 3 teams in the playoffs (in 2010, 2011, 2012). Of course most of those years were littered with App State and Ga Southern getting two bids. In the years the SoCon got 3 in, all 3 teams were highly ranked in the polls (2010 - #4, #5, and #6 teams, 2011 - #3, #9, and #12, 2012 - #6, #7, and #9), which I assumed would have meant the strength of the conference should have been considered pretty high.

I truly hope the conference does keep this kind of showing going and we can get 4 in, but based on the history of the conference it seems unlikely. Even in 2013 we had two teams get in (#19 Samford and #22 Furman) but did not get Chatty in who was ranked #23 and was in a 3-way tie for the conference championship with the other 2 (and had an 8-win season). My guess is we will be lucky to get 3, and that those teams will need to be ranked inside the top 20 with at least 8 wins. I do agree with about everybody that it is probably UTC and Samford in the driver's seat, with it being open for a 3rd team to emerge unless those two falter.

FUBeAR
Five Star Bear

Bearly Sane

Posts: 2,168

FCS Sagarin Ratings Sept 10, 2015 11:47:43 GMT -5

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Post by FUBeAR on Sept 10, 2015 11:47:43 GMT -5

Sept 10, 2015 10:15:25 GMT -5 wcugrad95 said:

I am not sure a single week's numbers are enough of a sampling to gauge the league strength for the year (didn't you also post some other numerical breakdown that showed Mercer should be statistically considered the best team in the country???). I looked back over the past 6 seasons (didn't bother to go farther than that), and the SoCon maxed at 3 teams in the playoffs (in 2010, 2011, 2012). Of course most of those years were littered with App State and Ga Southern getting two bids. In the years the SoCon got 3 in, all 3 teams were highly ranked in the polls (2010 - #4, #5, and #6 teams, 2011 - #3, #9, and #12, 2012 - #6, #7, and #9), which I assumed would have meant the strength of the conference should have been considered pretty high.

I truly hope the conference does keep this kind of showing going and we can get 4 in, but based on the history of the conference it seems unlikely. Even in 2013 we had two teams get in (#19 Samford and #22 Furman) but did not get Chatty in who was ranked #23 and was in a 3-way tie for the conference championship with the other 2 (and had an 8-win season). My guess is we will be lucky to get 3, and that those teams will need to be ranked inside the top 20 with at least 8 wins. I do agree with about everybody that it is probably UTC and Samford in the driver's seat, with it being open for a 3rd team to emerge unless those two falter.

(didn't you also post some other numerical breakdown that showed Mercer should be statistically considered the best team in the country???) - I don't believe so. Are you saying they are? THANKS 95! I did post the results of a Power Ranking formula that was created by some non-Mercer and Non-SoCon fans, which, when calculated after last week's results, showed Mercer with the highest Power Ranking in the SoCon. Perhaps you are referring to that and, apparently, doubting SCIENCE.

Polls and Rankings, early in the season, are driven by history and perception. We can't change history, but we can change perception. First, by winning on the field or at least pushing highly ranked and/or historically strong teams to their limits. But perception is also changed, in the world we live in today, by what people hear and read. So...we can assist in that process of perception-changing, which will result in higher rankings and more playoff at-large bids, by letting the FCS Nation know about the good news that IS the revival of the STRENGTH of the SoCon...or we can be these guys...

Your choice...

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he today that sheds his blood with me, shall be my brother.

wcugrad95
Guest

FCS Sagarin Ratings Sept 11, 2015 11:08:21 GMT -5

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Post by wcugrad95 on Sept 11, 2015 11:08:21 GMT -5

I said I hope the conference does keep up a good showing and proves worthy of 3 or even 4 spots - but was trying to show that historically speaking you tend to need 8+ wins and be ranked in the top 20 to snag a spot (some spots automatically go to conference champions who are not going to meet that criteria). As for statistics and "power rankings" I tend to believe if you look hard enough you can almost always bend numbers and or come across something to support any argument. I certainly am one that believes rankings before the first 2 or 3 games have been played really don't make any sense - and trying to compare anything other than head-to-head to me has always been futile. I went back and looked at the post you made, and unless I am reading it wrong you figured out that power ranking and hoped that you did the math right (not that the ranking was spit out by somebody else). But that is also fine with me - you are a Mercer fan first, and you should be looking for positives that support your program.

As for what I expect the playoff criteria to be, that would mean WCU is going to have a tough hill to climb. With 2 games against SEC opponents that will surely be huge losses, that means we would need to win 8 of the other 9 games we have. In a tougher SoCon that is a serious challenge and would mean we have to beat everybody else AND beat either UTC or Samford. So believe me, I truly hope that your prognostication that keeping a conference "power rating" in the top 3 will yield 4 playoff teams comes true - it gives everybody more of a chance. Of course it also means everybody is better (or move even), so we just might beat up on each other.

FUBeAR
Five Star Bear

Bearly Sane

Posts: 2,168

FCS Sagarin Ratings Sept 11, 2015 11:56:36 GMT -5

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Post by FUBeAR on Sept 11, 2015 11:56:36 GMT -5

Sept 11, 2015 11:08:21 GMT -5 wcugrad95 said:

I went back and looked at the post you made, and unless I am reading it wrong you figured out that power ranking and hoped that you did the math right (not that the ranking was spit out by somebody else). But that is also fine with me - you are a Mercer fan first, and you should be looking for positives that support your program.

You're reading it wrong.

Power Rankings Formula Posted on AGS by a South Dakota State Jackrabbits Fan on 9/6/15

My post was on 9/7/15 and the results were derived using the SDSU Fan's formula. I used an Excel spreadsheet to do the 'math'...that part was attempted humor.

Last Edit: Sept 11, 2015 11:57:31 GMT -5 by FUBeAR

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he today that sheds his blood with me, shall be my brother.

Post by FUBeAR on Sept 9, 2015 13:01:56 GMT -5

Post by wcugrad95 on Sept 10, 2015 10:15:25 GMT -5

Post by FUBeAR on Sept 10, 2015 11:47:43 GMT -5

Post by wcugrad95 on Sept 11, 2015 11:08:21 GMT -5

Post by FUBeAR on Sept 11, 2015 11:56:36 GMT -5

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