Post by orangeandblack on Dec 14, 2015 18:53:56 GMT -5
I wanted to give my "State of the SoCon" before the games of December 14th. All stats/RPI per NCAA.com and soconsports.com. This is how I rank the 10 teams in the conference:
#1. Chattanooga Mocs (7-2) RPI #16
This should come as no surprise to anyone right now. They were preseason #1, and they have done nothing to change that. In fact, they just snapped Dayton's 26 game home winning streak. Easily Chattanooga's most impressive win of the year. They also have road wins over Georgia and Illinois. They are #1 in the conference in 3PT percentage (39%), blocks per game (5.6), and steals per game (10.3). There's only one major category that I see as a potential fatal flaw. They make free throws at a rate of 69.1%. That's 8th in the SoCon and 168th nationally. When it comes to conference tournament time, you can't afford to brick any late game free throws. Besides that, it's going to take a total effort to beat UTC this year. Their only losses came against Iowa State and a somewhat perplexing loss to UL Monroe by 10 points. I can chalk that one up to being an aberration.
#2. Mercer Bears (8-1) RPI #75
The Bears have stormed out of the gate by winning 8 of their first 9 games. The only loss came on the road at Davidson, who is #14 in the RPI. Mercer was also within 2 points of Davidson with about a minute left. Of course I believe that Mercer can win the conference, so my opinion contains a high level of bias. Here are some amazing stats that are fact, and not based on opinion: Mercer is #1 in the SoCon in Rebounding Margin (+13.2)!, Scoring Defense (60.2), FG percent defense (36.3%), Assist/Turnover Ratio (1.4), and Defensive Rebound Percentage (78.9%). Here's where it gets fun. These are NATIONAL ranks for Mercer: Rebounding Margin (6th), Scoring Defense (17th), and Assist/Turnover ratio (43rd). Out of 346 teams!
Mercer has some big games coming up on the road. @ Auburn, @ Arkansas, and @ Ohio State. All consecutive, and the Auburn game is tomorrow (Dec. 15th).
#3. Samford Bulldogs (7-3) RPI #164
Samford has been one of the early surprises of the SoCon. They have picked up several solid D1 wins, yet haven't done much to move up the ranks of the RPI. I watched them against Texas. They only lost by 10 and held Texas to 59 total points. They are clearly a team to contend with, and coincidentally the team that Mercer opens up the SoCon schedule against. They find themselves near the middle or bottom when it comes to statistical rankings within the conference. Including last in assists per game (11.4). On paper they look like an easy win, yet on the court they have proved to be a threat.
#4. East Tennessee State Buccaneers (4-4) RPI #147
Due to the hype machine that their message board created, I've watched nearly all of their games vs. D1 opponents. I'm MercerFan on the old board (and their board). So far the results have been mostly poor. They did manage to score a big win on the road at Georgia Tech. Their only other D1 victory was at home over Green Bay, who has been decent. A new coach, and a ton of new recruits were thrown together to start this season. ETSU was 6-2 at this point last year, and that included 5 D1 wins. As you can see, I still rate them relatively high in the SoCon power ranks. Mainly due to the ineptitude of the teams below them, however, I still see some hope. They are 2nd in the SoCon in blocked shots (4.9), 3rd in FT % (76.7), and 2nd in FG % defense (42.5). [Side note: That's 6% worse than Mercer, who's #1] So how does this team give up so many points when they are 2nd in FG defense? They are -2 in the rebounding margin, and about -5 in Division 1 games. The beginning of conference play will be very telling for this team.
#5. Wofford Terriers (3-5) RPI #205
The defending SoCon champs look completely non-threatening at this point of the season. It's shocking to say that they might be a total non-factor in the SoCon race. They are dead last in scoring. Dead last in 3PT defense. Dead last in steals. Dead last in total rebounds per game. Why do I have them at #5? Similar reason that ETSU is 4th. The teams below them have dictated that ranking. Plus, they ARE the defending champs and I need more proof that they aren't going to make a surge. They've played a somewhat tough schedule, but only have 2 D1 wins over very low RPI teams in Presbyterian and Maryland Eastern Shore. We will learn a bit more as they take on Coastal Carolina (RPI 143) later today.
#6. Furman Paladins (5-4) RPI #307
I was feeling good about Furman until their last game. They got completely blitzed in a home game by Gardner Webb. A 20-point home loss that spoke volumes to me. Now I haven't forgotten that this is the team that was abysmal in the regular season last year and then surged to the conference finals (over my Mercer Bears in the semi-finals...). BUT I can't imagine that they could sneak up on the league again, I hope. Their wins this year are all over teams in the 300+ area of the RPI (App State, Mount St Marys, Liberty, and Presbyterian). Oh, and they also got whipped by Charlotte (1-8). Yep that's Charlotte's only win. Furman looks lost.
#7. Western Carolina Catamounts (3-6) RPI #153
Another team that I was ready to rank higher, until recent events. This also speaks to how these ranks could easily change over the next 5 games or so. Back to the topic at hand... They got absolutely ripped by Davidson to the tune of a 35-point defeat. Add that to the fact that their only D1 win is over UNC-Asheville, and this team isn't showing me much to work with. To be fair, the rest of their schedule has been at a high difficulty level. That's why I was giving them the benefit of the doubt. However, that loss to Davidson tells me that they simply don't have it. The tough strength of schedule is keeping their RPI somewhat relevant. They are at home today against Eastern Washington (RPI 230) to give us some more information on them.
#8. VMI Keydets (3-6) RPI #269
The Keydets are the best of the remaining 3 teams in my opinion. They are no longer the high scoring craziness that is now The Citadel. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Their only D1 win is over Presbyterian. So there's no 'key' victory to point at, but I get the feeling they can knock somebody off in conference play that isn't ready for them. They are #1 in free throw percentage in the SoCon at a staggering 77.5%. Don't let these guys get to the line! Beyond that, they won't hurt you in many other ways. They are 10th in scoring margin for example.
#9. UNC Greensboro Spartans (4-5) RPI #323
I debated on ranking them last, but for now they get the 9th spot. Their only D1 win is a 2 point squeaker over Jacksonville (RPI 341!). Their only 'blowout' loss was to a solid High Point team. In the preseason I thought UNC-G was going to make a move up in the standings, not down. So far it's not looking good for the Spartans.
#10. The Citadel Bulldogs (6-4) RPI #252
Are you ready for this one? The Citadel is #1 NATIONALLY in points scored at 93.6 per game!!!!! Before you get too excited... they are 346 out of 346 in points allowed at 90.8. That's still a positive margin, but that's only because they ran the score up on two non-D1 teams with a total of over 250 point scored on them. They also played another non-D1 called Vorhees and nearly lost to them. They also scraped by winless USC-Upstate. You can't sleep on them because of their unique style of run-n-gun play. But this team was inherited this year by the former VMI coach and just weren't built for that type of game plan.
#1. Chattanooga Mocs (7-2) RPI #16
This should come as no surprise to anyone right now. They were preseason #1, and they have done nothing to change that. In fact, they just snapped Dayton's 26 game home winning streak. Easily Chattanooga's most impressive win of the year. They also have road wins over Georgia and Illinois. They are #1 in the conference in 3PT percentage (39%), blocks per game (5.6), and steals per game (10.3). There's only one major category that I see as a potential fatal flaw. They make free throws at a rate of 69.1%. That's 8th in the SoCon and 168th nationally. When it comes to conference tournament time, you can't afford to brick any late game free throws. Besides that, it's going to take a total effort to beat UTC this year. Their only losses came against Iowa State and a somewhat perplexing loss to UL Monroe by 10 points. I can chalk that one up to being an aberration.
#2. Mercer Bears (8-1) RPI #75
The Bears have stormed out of the gate by winning 8 of their first 9 games. The only loss came on the road at Davidson, who is #14 in the RPI. Mercer was also within 2 points of Davidson with about a minute left. Of course I believe that Mercer can win the conference, so my opinion contains a high level of bias. Here are some amazing stats that are fact, and not based on opinion: Mercer is #1 in the SoCon in Rebounding Margin (+13.2)!, Scoring Defense (60.2), FG percent defense (36.3%), Assist/Turnover Ratio (1.4), and Defensive Rebound Percentage (78.9%). Here's where it gets fun. These are NATIONAL ranks for Mercer: Rebounding Margin (6th), Scoring Defense (17th), and Assist/Turnover ratio (43rd). Out of 346 teams!
Mercer has some big games coming up on the road. @ Auburn, @ Arkansas, and @ Ohio State. All consecutive, and the Auburn game is tomorrow (Dec. 15th).
#3. Samford Bulldogs (7-3) RPI #164
Samford has been one of the early surprises of the SoCon. They have picked up several solid D1 wins, yet haven't done much to move up the ranks of the RPI. I watched them against Texas. They only lost by 10 and held Texas to 59 total points. They are clearly a team to contend with, and coincidentally the team that Mercer opens up the SoCon schedule against. They find themselves near the middle or bottom when it comes to statistical rankings within the conference. Including last in assists per game (11.4). On paper they look like an easy win, yet on the court they have proved to be a threat.
#4. East Tennessee State Buccaneers (4-4) RPI #147
Due to the hype machine that their message board created, I've watched nearly all of their games vs. D1 opponents. I'm MercerFan on the old board (and their board). So far the results have been mostly poor. They did manage to score a big win on the road at Georgia Tech. Their only other D1 victory was at home over Green Bay, who has been decent. A new coach, and a ton of new recruits were thrown together to start this season. ETSU was 6-2 at this point last year, and that included 5 D1 wins. As you can see, I still rate them relatively high in the SoCon power ranks. Mainly due to the ineptitude of the teams below them, however, I still see some hope. They are 2nd in the SoCon in blocked shots (4.9), 3rd in FT % (76.7), and 2nd in FG % defense (42.5). [Side note: That's 6% worse than Mercer, who's #1] So how does this team give up so many points when they are 2nd in FG defense? They are -2 in the rebounding margin, and about -5 in Division 1 games. The beginning of conference play will be very telling for this team.
#5. Wofford Terriers (3-5) RPI #205
The defending SoCon champs look completely non-threatening at this point of the season. It's shocking to say that they might be a total non-factor in the SoCon race. They are dead last in scoring. Dead last in 3PT defense. Dead last in steals. Dead last in total rebounds per game. Why do I have them at #5? Similar reason that ETSU is 4th. The teams below them have dictated that ranking. Plus, they ARE the defending champs and I need more proof that they aren't going to make a surge. They've played a somewhat tough schedule, but only have 2 D1 wins over very low RPI teams in Presbyterian and Maryland Eastern Shore. We will learn a bit more as they take on Coastal Carolina (RPI 143) later today.
#6. Furman Paladins (5-4) RPI #307
I was feeling good about Furman until their last game. They got completely blitzed in a home game by Gardner Webb. A 20-point home loss that spoke volumes to me. Now I haven't forgotten that this is the team that was abysmal in the regular season last year and then surged to the conference finals (over my Mercer Bears in the semi-finals...). BUT I can't imagine that they could sneak up on the league again, I hope. Their wins this year are all over teams in the 300+ area of the RPI (App State, Mount St Marys, Liberty, and Presbyterian). Oh, and they also got whipped by Charlotte (1-8). Yep that's Charlotte's only win. Furman looks lost.
#7. Western Carolina Catamounts (3-6) RPI #153
Another team that I was ready to rank higher, until recent events. This also speaks to how these ranks could easily change over the next 5 games or so. Back to the topic at hand... They got absolutely ripped by Davidson to the tune of a 35-point defeat. Add that to the fact that their only D1 win is over UNC-Asheville, and this team isn't showing me much to work with. To be fair, the rest of their schedule has been at a high difficulty level. That's why I was giving them the benefit of the doubt. However, that loss to Davidson tells me that they simply don't have it. The tough strength of schedule is keeping their RPI somewhat relevant. They are at home today against Eastern Washington (RPI 230) to give us some more information on them.
#8. VMI Keydets (3-6) RPI #269
The Keydets are the best of the remaining 3 teams in my opinion. They are no longer the high scoring craziness that is now The Citadel. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Their only D1 win is over Presbyterian. So there's no 'key' victory to point at, but I get the feeling they can knock somebody off in conference play that isn't ready for them. They are #1 in free throw percentage in the SoCon at a staggering 77.5%. Don't let these guys get to the line! Beyond that, they won't hurt you in many other ways. They are 10th in scoring margin for example.
#9. UNC Greensboro Spartans (4-5) RPI #323
I debated on ranking them last, but for now they get the 9th spot. Their only D1 win is a 2 point squeaker over Jacksonville (RPI 341!). Their only 'blowout' loss was to a solid High Point team. In the preseason I thought UNC-G was going to make a move up in the standings, not down. So far it's not looking good for the Spartans.
#10. The Citadel Bulldogs (6-4) RPI #252
Are you ready for this one? The Citadel is #1 NATIONALLY in points scored at 93.6 per game!!!!! Before you get too excited... they are 346 out of 346 in points allowed at 90.8. That's still a positive margin, but that's only because they ran the score up on two non-D1 teams with a total of over 250 point scored on them. They also played another non-D1 called Vorhees and nearly lost to them. They also scraped by winless USC-Upstate. You can't sleep on them because of their unique style of run-n-gun play. But this team was inherited this year by the former VMI coach and just weren't built for that type of game plan.
