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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 10, 2016 16:08:57 GMT -5
Games this week of interest to Investors (Projected WINNERS in BOLD; investment analysis below each game)
Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech (Prior Opponent) - Saturday, October 15, 2016 12:30 PM Georgia Southern +10½ Over/Under N/A Projected Score N/A Yellow Jackets
Furman at East Tennessee State - Saturday, October 15, 2016 12:00 PM Furman -16½ Over/Under 44½ Projected Score = About 30-14 Paladins
Austin Peay (Future Opponent) at Jacksonville State - Saturday, October 15, 2016 2:00 PM Austin Peay +45½ Over/Under 62½ Projected Score = About 53-9 Gamecocks
VMI at Samford - Saturday, October 15, 2016 3:00 PM VMI +18½ Over/Under 62½ Projected Score = About 40-22 Bulldogs
Chattanooga at The Citadel - Saturday, October 15, 2016 3:00 PM Chattanooga -6 Over/Under 49½ Projected Score = About 28-22 Mocs
Western Carolina at Mercer - Saturday, October 15, 2016 4:00 PM Western Carolina +4½ Over/Under 63½ Projected Score = About 34-29 Bears
Eastern Illinois at Tennessee Tech (Previous Opponent) - Saturday, October 15, 2016 7:00 PM Eastern Illinois -3½ Over/Under 57½ Projected Score = About 31-27 Panthers
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 10, 2016 17:48:15 GMT -5
Western Carolina's Season to Date...1-4 Overall / 0-3 SoConSep. 3 at East Carolina L 52-7 Sep. 10 vs. Gardner-Webb W 44-14 Sep. 17 at ETSU (Bristol Motor Speedway) L 34-31 Sep. 24 BYE Oct. 1 vs. The Citadel L 37-14 (Only Common Opponent - Sep. 1 Mercer vs. The Citadel L 24-23) Oct. 8 vs.Wofford L 31-19 SCORING OFFENSESoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | TD's | FG's | XP's | 2 PT XP's | Def XP's
| Safeties
| Points
| Points /Game | 5. | Mercer | 5 | 15 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 26.2 | 7. | WCU | 5 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 23.0 |
SCORING DEFENSESoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | TD's | FG's | XP's | 2 PT XP's | Def XP's | Safeties | Points | Points /Game | 8. | Mercer | 5 | 23 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 33.6 | 8. | WCU | 5 | 22 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 33.6 |
TOTAL OFFENSESoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Rush | Pass | Plays | Yards | Avg /Play | TD's | Average /Game | 6. | WCU | 5 | 587 | 1318 | 327 | 1905 | 5.8 | 15 | 381.0 | 7. | Mercer | 5 | 750 | 1147 | 343 | 1897 | 5.5 | 15 | 379.4 |
TOTAL DEFENSESoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Rush | Pass | Plays | Yards | Avg /Play | TD's | Average /Game | 4. | Mercer | 5 | 946 | 1015 | 349 | 1961 | 5.6 | 20 | 392.2 | 9. | WCU | 5 | 1586 | 895 | 397 | 2481 | 6.2 | 22 | 496.2 |
RUSHING OFFENSESoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Attempts | Yards | Average /Attempt | TD's | Yards /Game | 4. | Mercer | 5 | 177 | 750 | 4.2 | 9 | 150.0 | 6. | WCU | 5 | 148 | 587 | 4.0 | 6 | 117.4 |
RUSHING DEFENSESoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Attempts | Yards | Average /Attempt | TD's | Yards /Game | 5. | Mercer | 5 | 223 | 946 | 4.2 | 13 | 189.2 | 9. | WCU | 5 | 285 | 1586 | 5.6 | 12 | 317.2 |
PASS OFFENSESoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Completions | Attempts | INT's | Completion % | Yards | Avg Yds /Attempt | TD's | Avg Yds /Game | 2. | WCU | 5 | 117 | 179 | 5 | 65.4 | 1318 | 7.4 | 9 | 263.6 | 5. | Mercer | 5 | 106 | 166 | 3 | 63.9 | 1147 | 6.9 | 6 | 229.4 |
PASS DEFENSE SoCon Rank | Team | # of /Games | Completions | Attempts | INT's | Completion % | Yards | Avg Yds /Attempt | TD's | Avg Yds /Game | 2. | WCU | 5 | 72 | 112 | 1 | 64.3 | 895 | 8.0 | 10 | 179.0 | 6. | Mercer | 5 | 89 | 126 | 2 | 70.6 | 1015 | 8.1 | 7 | 203.0 |
PASS EFFICIENCYSoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Completions | Attempts | INT's | Completion % | Yards | TD's | Efficiency | 4. | WCU | 5 | 117 | 179 | 5 | 65.4 | 1318 | 9 | 138.2 | 6. | Mercer | 5 | 106 | 166 | 3 | 63.9 | 1147 | 6 | 130.2 |
PASS DEFENSE EFFICIENCYSoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Completions | Attempts | INT's | Completion % | Yards | TD's | Efficiency | 7. | Mercer | 5 | 89 | 126 | 2 | 70.6 | 1015 | 7 | 153.5 | 8. | WCU | 5 | 72 | 112 | 1 | 64.3 | 895 | 10 | 159.1 |
SACKS BYSoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Number | Yards | 4. | Mercer | 5 | 13 | 101 | 9. | WCU | 5 | 4 | 37 |
SACKS AGAINSTSoCon Rank | Team | # of Games | Number | Yards | 4. | Mercer | 5 | 6 | 22 | 8. | WCU | 5 | 14 | 93 |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 10, 2016 20:25:08 GMT -5
Western has had a very poor 10 quarters since self-destructing and losing all momentum after a fumble versus ETSU - instead of going into the half ahead 24-3 or 28-3, we let the Bucs drive on us and end the half 21-10. Then we implode on defense with personal fouls and pass interference, it becomes 21-17, and we haven't recovered since. Playing Citadel and Wofford back-to-back with a defense that is struggling then led to 2 more losses, but our offense also struggled mightily in those games, too. The only game we have looked good in was Gardner Webb - the defense adjusted at halftime and our offense was very explosive. Since then, we have been predictable on offense and have had way too many 3-and-outs that have led to even worse things for our defense (losing the time of possession battle by wide margins the last 3 weeks doesn't help a defense). We still have some very explosive offensive players, and I think the QB has the potential to be better than Troy Mitchell was and re-write the WCU record books. But right now the coaches, the team, and (of course) the fans are in a funk.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 10, 2016 20:54:45 GMT -5
Western has had a very poor 10 quarters since self-destructing...the coaches, the team, and (of course) the fans are in a funk.
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 10, 2016 21:33:32 GMT -5
Western has had a very poor 10 quarters since self-destructing and losing all momentum after a fumble versus ETSU - instead of going into the half ahead 24-3 or 28-3, we let the Bucs drive on us and end the half 21-10. Then we implode on defense with personal fouls and pass interference, it becomes 21-17, and we haven't recovered since. Playing Citadel and Wofford back-to-back with a defense that is struggling then led to 2 more losses, but our offense also struggled mightily in those games, too. The only game we have looked good in was Gardner Webb - the defense adjusted at halftime and our offense was very explosive. Since then, we have been predictable on offense and have had way too many 3-and-outs that have led to even worse things for our defense (losing the time of possession battle by wide margins the last 3 weeks doesn't help a defense). We still have some very explosive offensive players, and I think the QB has the potential to be better than Troy Mitchell was and re-write the WCU record books. But right now the coaches, the team, and (of course) the fans are in a funk. I always thought Detrez Newsome was a beast. Surprised he hasn't gotten more touches.
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 11, 2016 9:22:48 GMT -5
Detrez is a beast - and last week I believe he got a total of 14 touches (9 runs) in a game where we were only down 5 well into the 2nd half and still had a realistic chance of winning. Not trying to say anything about Wofford, as they have a good defense (particularly against the run), but the pre-season offensive player of the year has to be used more than that - I'd take my chances with Detrez finding a way to break a long run or screen pass over watching our QB run for his life on may of your plays. So those kind of things are what I am talking about with our offense - fairly predictable play calling that when it doesn't work we put our defense in a hole by having them run back onto the field against an option team after many 3-and-outs the last 2 weeks.
For WCU to have a chance to win against anybody in the SoCon, my opinion is we need to come somewhere close in time of possession, we have to not turn the ball over when we are moving the ball (multiple turnovers or dropped passes when we have been on our way to a score), and we need Detrez to touch the ball more than 20 times per game (I'd love to see 20 rushes and a few receptions). From the stats above, my guess is our OC will see that you guys give up a very high completion percentage and he will go with throwing it 40 times again. Which means he might ignore the fact that you also have 13 sacks (we have given up 14 this season with a VERY athletic QB - meaning it probably should be much higher).
Mercer plays a lot of close games, and WCU still has a fair amount of players from last year's team that was 7-4. But other than the GW game we have not looked at all like the last 2 years. I can't argue with the spread/line on the game based on what I have seen so far. We keep waiting for our team to show what it is capable of, but it hasn't happened for more than about 1 half all season.
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 11, 2016 14:36:38 GMT -5
FYI: Parking and tailgate spot info for our visitors.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 13, 2016 1:13:33 GMT -5
WCU Head Coach Mark Spier: "Our Offense...as good as anybody in the country." (13:42)* Per their Game Notes, WCU is starting 4 Soph's and a Freshman in the O-Line this week. * They are also starting a Freshman QB (who is VERY good) and a Soph WR. * 7 FR/SO's starting, in total, on the WCU Offense. So, 4 SR's/JR's starting on Offense, FWIW * Last week against Mercer, Chattanooga started 4 SR's and 6 JR's on Offense. So, 10 SR's/JR's starting on Offense, FWIW * At the present time, The Citadel starts 5 SR's and 4 JR's on Offense. So, 9 SR's/JR's starting on Offense, FWIW * 15 of 24 Players listed on the WCU O's 2 Deep are Freshmen or Sophomores. * IF they are as good as anybody in the country on Offense, they will certainly be a force to be reckoned with this season and over the next 2 or 3 years * The JR QB who engineered WCU's come-from-behind-game-winning-drive against Mercer last season suffered a broken leg (I believe) and is out for the season * WCU's backup QB's are: ___a 6-1 185 FR, apparently, in his 2nd year as a student at WCU, who walked-on this Spring. He completed 2 passes in their Spring Game and has not participated in a game so far this season... OR___a 5-11 200 R-SO, who is listed as a DB in his 1st year on WCU's roster. He is listed on Charleston Southern's 2014 roster as a QB, but did not participate in any games for CSU. In 2015 he was listed on Itawamba (MS) CC's roster as a WR, played in 10 games, caught 28 passes for 239 yards and 2 TD's. He also fumbled twice (in the same game and lost both of them) while making those 28 receptions. Further, he was 0-2 in passing for the ICC Indians, had 1 Punt Return for 13 yards, and had 1 tackle. He has not participated in a game for WCU in 2016. * WCU did not give up a sack in their 1st 2 games vs. ECU and Gardner-Webb. * The Catamounts have given up 15 sacks in their past 3 games, including 8 to The Citadel * 7 of those 8 Sacks by The Citadel were made by D-Linemen * WCU fell behind The Citadel 34-0 before scoring their 1st points with 1:36 remaining in the 3rd Quarter As it was with VMI, it seems to me, Mercer's KEY TO VICTORY in this game is to GET TO THE QB! In their 1st 2 games, when WCU's QB was not Sacked, he averaged 364 yards of Total Offense. In the past 3 games, when he has been Sacked a total of 15 times, he averaged 243 yards of Total Offense. That's a 33% fall-off in production when he is sacked at least 1x. Also, if either of the backup QB's are required to play, they will be taking their 1st snap as a college QB, most likely under adverse conditions. That said, WCU gets the ball out much quicker than VMI AND their QB is much, much more elusive than VMI's. It will be a challenge to get him off his spot AND contain him. As I saw it, The Citadel did that by swarming blitzes that seemed to confuse both the young Catamount O-Line and the young QB. Looking for these 9 young men (and others) to come up BIG on Saturday! # | Player | # of Sacks | Yards | 11 | LB Tosin Aguebor | 3.0 | 25 | 21 | DB Zach Jackson | 2.0 | 15 | 23 | LB Will Coneway | 2.0 | 14 | 95 | DL Jalen Penn | 1.5 | 7 | 2 | LB Lee Bennett | 1.0 | 7 | 59 | DL Tunde Ayinla | 1.0 | 6 | 33 | LB Tripp Patterson | 1.0 | 14 | 52 | LB Kyle Trammell | 1.0 | 10 | 91 | DL Austin Wysor | 0.5 | 3 | Total | Mercer Bears | 13 | 101 | |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 13, 2016 10:55:31 GMT -5
Pretty fair assessment. Tyrie Adams has the ***potential*** to be the best QB ever at WCU, but that is based primarily on him having a couple of monster games in his young 5-game career. He is a RS Freshman who also won the SoCon high-jump last season, so he is a tremendous athlete. We also have Detrez Newsome who I commented on earlier in the thread, and some really good WRs headlined by Terryon Robinson (and including Spearman Robinson who when he is involved in the game can be unstoppable with his size - but that only seems to happen once in a blue moon). None of that matters if the O-line doesn't handle the pressure that Mercer is sure to try and bring, and that pressure has led to losses because the offense has not sustained drives or been able to get Newsome or Spearman Robinson the touches that can make a difference.
Defensively, we have pretty much the same back-end from last year but have really been hurt by lingering injuries - primarily to LB Riddle who has been our leading tackler since bursting on the scene as a All-Freshman SoCon player a few seasons ago. The defense by design seems to be a bend-but-don't-break unit, but when you are missing some key guys AND when the other team has the ball for 35 - 40 minutes a game we have broken more times than anybody would like.
In a loss, the defense played better last week against Wofford than they had the previous game-and-a-half. If the offense can pick things back up I think this can be a very entertaining game because I believe both sides have the ability to move the ball.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 13, 2016 17:33:08 GMT -5
Some interesting comparisons using NCAA FCS Rankings... NCAA Category / Ranking | MER | WCU | Total Offense
| 59 | 57 | Rushing Offense | 58 | 99 | Passing Offense
| 49 | 26 | Team Passing Efficiency | 54 | 30 | Scoring Offense | 68 | 81 | Total Defense
| 59 | 115 | Rushing Defense
| 81 | 122 | Passing Yards Allowed
| 45 | 16 | Team Passing Efficiency Defense | 103 | 114 | Scoring Defense | T-90 | T-90 | Turnover Margin | T-54 | T-102
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct | 24 | 74
| 4th Down Conversion Pct | T-87 | T-1
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense | 109 | 121 | 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
| 88 | T-105 | Red Zone Offense | 31 | T-52
| Red Zone Defense | T-95 | 67
| Net Punting
| 27 | T-31 | Punt Returns | 28 | T-49
| Kickoff Returns | 78 | 15 | First Downs Offense | 65 | T-67
| First Downs Defense
| T-63 | T-98 | Fewest Penalties Per Game
| T-71 | T-88 | Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game | 103 | 60 | Time of Possession | 99 | 122 |
Average NCAA FCS Statistical Ranking | 67.52 | 72.08 | Total Number of Categories "Won" over this Opponent | 16 | 8 |
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Post by MUfan on Oct 13, 2016 18:14:20 GMT -5
Some interesting comparisons using NCAA FCS Rankings... NCAA Category / Ranking | MER | WCU | Total Offense
| 59 | 57 | Rushing Offense | 58 | 99 | Passing Offense
| 49 | 26 | Team Passing Efficiency | 54 | 30 | Scoring Offense | 68 | 81 | Total Defense
| 59 | 115 | Rushing Defense
| 81 | 122 | Passing Yards Allowed
| 45 | 16 | Team Passing Efficiency Defense | 103 | 114 | Scoring Defense | T-90 | T-90 | Turnover Margin | T-54 | T-102
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct | 24 | 74
| 4th Down Conversion Pct | T-87 | T-1
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense | 109 | 121 | 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
| 88 | T-105 | Red Zone Offense | 31 | T-52
| Red Zone Defense | T-95 | 67
| Net Punting
| 27 | T-31 | Punt Returns | 28 | T-49
| Kickoff Returns | 78 | 15 | First Downs Offense | 65 | T-67
| First Downs Defense
| T-63 | T-98 | Fewest Penalties Per Game
| T-71 | T-88 | Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game | 103 | 60 | Time of Possession | 99 | 122 |
Average NCAA FCS Statistical Ranking | 67.52 | 72.08 | Total Number of Categories "Won" over this Opponent | 16 | 8 |
All this then it usually comes down to who matches up better on game day and who makes the fewest mistakes.
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Post by Clueless Fan on Oct 13, 2016 21:06:26 GMT -5
FYI. New Marriott is now open. They still have rooms for this weekend.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 13, 2016 21:43:49 GMT -5
FYI. New Marriott is now open. They still have rooms for this weekend. Ballpark Rates? Similar to Hilton Garden Inn (about 30-40% above 'market rate,' if I recall....last time I checked was 2013 though)?
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 13, 2016 22:00:24 GMT -5
I checked the next 4 Saturday nights and they sat anywhere between $98 and $140 a night
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Post by Clueless Fan on Oct 14, 2016 7:40:42 GMT -5
FYI. New Marriott is now open. They still have rooms for this weekend. Ballpark Rates? Similar to Hilton Garden Inn (about 30-40% above 'market rate,' if I recall....last time I checked was 2013 though)? I get your point but the "market rate" is what the market will bear. When there is high demand for the rooms, an above-normal rate ensures that those who value the convenience of staying on campus will pay the extra; those who don't value it will stay elsewhere. I paid under $100 per night at the Marriott for Friday and Saturday.
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