ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Oct 20, 2016 11:06:38 GMT -5
Bears avoid being upset, but not by nearly as much as most expect. I see it 27-24 (because Mercer always wins the close ones) I really hope the game doesn't go like this. Last week was the first time that a team did not score 40 on AP, so I think we regress back to the mean of about 45. Their offense is not very impressive, but I agree that they might have something special cooked up for us: trick plays, surprise onside, fake punts. So about 28ish, but some of that comes in garbage time. 45-28 |
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 21, 2016 12:55:24 GMT -5
I think I've officially Lou Holtz-ed myself into being super worried about this game.
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 21, 2016 16:53:20 GMT -5
I think I've officially Lou Holtz-ed myself into being super worried about this game. Me too! |
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 21, 2016 16:57:48 GMT -5
The Investment Report is out for this week... Wesleyan at East Tennessee State - Thursday, October 20, 2016 7:30 PM Wesleyan +13 Over/Under 47 So...Projected Score = 30-17 BucsThe Citadel at Wofford - Saturday, October 22, 2016 1:30 PM The Citadel pk Wofford pk Over/Under 40 So...Projected Score = 20-20 with OT to Infinity & Beyond!VMI at Chattanooga - Saturday, October 22, 2016 2:00 PM VMI +25 Over/Under 55 So...Projected Score = 40-15 MocsSoutheast Missouri State at Tennessee Tech (Earlier Opponent) - Saturday, October 22, 2016 2:30 PM Southeast Missouri State -1 Over 43 So...Projected Score = 22-21 Redhawks
Mercer at Austin Peay - Saturday, October 22, 2016 5:00 PM
Mercer -22
Over 63
So...Projected Score = 42-21-ish BearsWestern Carolina at Samford - Saturday, October 22, 2016 7:00 PM Western Carolina +17 Over 68 So...Projected Score = 43-25-ish BulldogsSo FUBeAR, because my "rooting powers" are so phenomenal, I needs some help wit the Wofford-Citadel game. Do Bear fans cheer for Wofford to upset the bel hops to help Mercer toward the SoCon championship? Or do we root for Citadel to help Mercer with an FCS playoff spot? Truly conflicted..... |
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 21, 2016 17:40:23 GMT -5
The Investment Report is out for this week... Wesleyan at East Tennessee State - Thursday, October 20, 2016 7:30 PM Wesleyan +13 Over/Under 47 So...Projected Score = 30-17 BucsThe Citadel at Wofford - Saturday, October 22, 2016 1:30 PM The Citadel pk Wofford pk Over/Under 40 So...Projected Score = 20-20 with OT to Infinity & Beyond!VMI at Chattanooga - Saturday, October 22, 2016 2:00 PM VMI +25 Over/Under 55 So...Projected Score = 40-15 MocsSoutheast Missouri State at Tennessee Tech (Earlier Opponent) - Saturday, October 22, 2016 2:30 PM Southeast Missouri State -1 Over 43 So...Projected Score = 22-21 Redhawks
Mercer at Austin Peay - Saturday, October 22, 2016 5:00 PM
Mercer -22
Over 63
So...Projected Score = 42-21-ish BearsWestern Carolina at Samford - Saturday, October 22, 2016 7:00 PM Western Carolina +17 Over 68 So...Projected Score = 43-25-ish BulldogsSo FUBeAR, because my "rooting powers" are so phenomenal, I needs some help wit the Wofford-Citadel game. Do Bear fans cheer for Wofford to upset the bel hops to help Mercer toward the SoCon championship? Or do we root for Citadel to help Mercer with an FCS playoff spot? Truly conflicted..... Dear Conflicted, Have you prayed about it? Just kidding....I'm not certain that The Citadel winning over Woffy helps Mercer get a Playoff spot. Maybe it does because if they go undefeated and Mercer only lost to them by 1 point, it looks better. But, I'm not sure that matters. I'm thinking it would be better if the SoCon has 3 or 4 Teams with 2 or 3 SoCon losses to each other and a great OOC record (which it does...and which MU needs to close out with a win this Sat!!!). Sort of 'force' the committee to say..."Well, we know the SoCon is really good...and they beat each other up...so, let's just take all 4 (or 5) of the 2 to 3 loss teams. That seems to be what they've done with the MVFC, the CAA, and the Big Sky in recent years...and only the MVFC is rated as stronger than the SoCon. So, they OUGHT to take any Team that is 8-3 in the SoCon, PROBABLY should take any Team that is 7-4, and THINK HARD about taking a 6-5 Team (as they did with Western Illinois from the MVFC last year). I haven't done any formal simulations/modeling on the topic of getting MU to the SoCon Championship...but intuition tells me that since El Cid beat Mercer, it would be better for them to get a loss. Mercer will have an opportunity to hang a loss on Woffy next week and they already have a loss to Sammy, so, assuming both Woffy and Mercer win the rest of 'em, that gives Mercer the head-to-head tie-breaker between the two. El Cid still have to play Sammy, and their arch-rival, VMI (in Lexington); so if Woffy beats them, they could, theoretically, end up with 3 losses...and Mercer needs El Cid to have 3 losses since they win the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bears. El Cid still has ETSU also, but I don't think they'll have much trouble with the Bucs (this year). Anyway - Mercer will need to win out, Chatt will need to lose to 2 of VMI, WCU, and Woffy...not sure how likely that is...but if Craine stays hurt, if could happen. BTW - All of this is 'trying' to get Mercer the title outright, so they are ensured the AutoBid. If, let's say Mercer, Chatt, and El Cid all end up with 2 SoCon losses, El Cid will get the AutoBid, BUT all 3 would be SoCon Champs...even though Mercer lost to both head-to-head. Chatt did not make the Playoffs in 2013...even though they were SoCon Co-Champs AND beat Furman, who earned the AutoBid....SO COMPLICATED!!! Maybe just cheer for the mascot you like the most or the colors...I'm pulling for the AnkleBiters because I picked them to win this week....who knows...maybe I even placed a small investment on the outcome of that game....maybe. |
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 21, 2016 18:17:58 GMT -5
So FUBeAR, because my "rooting powers" are so phenomenal, I needs some help wit the Wofford-Citadel game. Do Bear fans cheer for Wofford to upset the bel hops to help Mercer toward the SoCon championship? Or do we root for Citadel to help Mercer with an FCS playoff spot? Truly conflicted..... Dear Conflicted, Have you prayed about it? Just kidding....I'm not certain that The Citadel winning over Woffy helps Mercer get a Playoff spot. Maybe it does because if they go undefeated and Mercer only lost to them by 1 point, it looks better. But, I'm not sure that matters. I'm thinking it would be better if the SoCon has 3 or 4 Teams with 2 or 3 SoCon losses to each other and a great OOC record (which it does...and which MU needs to close out with a win this Sat!!!). Sort of 'force' the committee to say..."Well, we know the SoCon is really good...and they beat each other up...so, let's just take all 4 (or 5) of the 2 to 3 loss teams. That seems to be what they've done with the MVFC, the CAA, and the Big Sky in recent years...and only the MVFC is rated as stronger than the SoCon. So, they OUGHT to take any Team that is 8-3 in the SoCon, PROBABLY should take any Team that is 7-4, and THINK HARD about taking a 6-5 Team (as they did with Western Illinois from the MVFC last year). I haven't done any formal simulations/modeling on the topic of getting MU to the SoCon Championship...but intuition tells me that since El Cid beat Mercer, it would be better for them to get a loss. Mercer will have an opportunity to hang a loss on Woffy next week and they already have a loss to Sammy, so, assuming both Woffy and Mercer win the rest of 'em, that gives Mercer the head-to-head tie-breaker between the two. El Cid still have to play Sammy, and their arch-rival, VMI (in Lexington); so if Woffy beats them, they could, theoretically, end up with 3 losses...and Mercer needs El Cid to have 3 losses since they win the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bears. El Cid still has ETSU also, but I don't think they'll have much trouble with the Bucs (this year). Anyway - Mercer will need to win out, Chatt will need to lose to 2 of VMI, WCU, and Woffy...not sure how likely that is...but if Craine stays hurt, if could happen. BTW - All of this is 'trying' to get Mercer the title outright, so they are ensured the AutoBid. If, let's say Mercer, Chatt, and El Cid all end up with 2 SoCon losses, El Cid will get the AutoBid, BUT all 3 would be SoCon Champs...even though Mercer lost to both head-to-head. Chatt did not make the Playoffs in 2013...even though they were SoCon Co-Champs AND beat Furman, who earned the AutoBid....SO COMPLICATED!!! Maybe just cheer for the mascot you like the most or the colors...I'm pulling for the AnkleBiters because I picked them to win this week....who knows...maybe I even placed a small investment on the outcome of that game....maybe. Oh my aching head! I think I'll just root for my Bears and let the chips fall where they fall. |
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Post by MUfan on Oct 22, 2016 16:28:34 GMT -5
Thanks ref.
Looked like PI on the Bears to me.
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 22, 2016 19:28:42 GMT -5
Classic example of a prevent offense. We get a lead and totally change our offense.
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 22, 2016 19:36:13 GMT -5
I'm generally Mr. Positive, but this has been one of the most frustrating games I've watched. I don't know what it is, and maybe I'm just way of base, but it just seems like we're missing a killer instinct. When you have someone on the ropes, you knock them over the ropes and into the front row of the crowd. My judgement might be clouded right now because the game is still going on, but I just wish we would pout it on someone at some point when we get ahead. I mean, put our foot on someone's throat. But I honestly don't remember us doing this since the PFL season.
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 22, 2016 19:37:22 GMT -5
Case in point, we get the gift on the Chandler Curtis onside kick return for a TD, and AP goes on a 3 play, 61 yard drive that took 15 seconds. So, here we are having to field another onside kick.
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 22, 2016 19:40:29 GMT -5
What an ugly second half.
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 22, 2016 19:42:38 GMT -5
So we try to run out the clock on offense. They put 8 men in the box and we just run up the middle.
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Post by MUfan on Oct 22, 2016 19:55:56 GMT -5
I'm generally Mr. Positive, but this has been one of the most frustrating games I've watched. I don't know what it is, and maybe I'm just way of base, but it just seems like we're missing a killer instinct. When you have someone on the ropes, you knock them over the ropes and into the front row of the crowd. My judgement might be clouded right now because the game is still going on, but I just wish we would pout it on someone at some point when we get ahead. I mean, put our foot on someone's throat. But I honestly don't remember us doing this since the PFL season. We did beat Easy Tennessee State U 52-0 last year and beat Peay pretty good last year. But we don't have the defense to totally dominate any Div 1 scholarship team. |
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 22, 2016 20:35:00 GMT -5
How 'bout that stiff arm by Kyle Trammell, tho.  |
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Oct 22, 2016 22:21:54 GMT -5
That was terrible. 0-12 on third down. Austin Peay had 500 yards of offense. Complete collapse on offense at the end of the game. Things were looking good early, but man if we don't get some of those turnovers and helpful flags we might lose that game.
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