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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 17, 2016 12:52:03 GMT -5
Starting out the week with a post I made on another board...the takeaway is that at least 1 National Prognosticator ranks Mercer #14 in the FCS, #4 in the SoCon...and has 5 SoCon Teams in his Top 20 as he ranks the SoCon as the best conference in FCS....and he's from Wisconsin, BTW. I'm going to go ahead and post my Power Rankings for this week. I'll be back later with my predictions.
This week, I've decided to invite a Co-Ranker to join me in my Power Rankings. I'll let him rank the Top 5 and then I'll sort out the bottom 4. My Co-Ranker this week is the esteemed David L. Wilson. Mr. Wilson has a BS in Applied Mathematics and Engineering Physics, an MS in Computer Science, and a PhD (ABD) in Computer Sciences. His work is widely-known and is utilized as part of the Massey Composite Ratings. Below is how Mr. Wilson and his algorithms see the SoCon, including his National Ranking, this week.
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| Conf | Conf | Overall | Overall | Wilson | Wilson |
| | SoCon Rank | TEAM | W | L | W | L | Rating | National Ranking | Comment | | 1 | The Citadel | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 927 | 1 | I hated putting them @ #2 in the SoCon, but Mr. Wilson sez they #1 (in the whole US of A)
| | 2 | Chattanooga | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 866 | 4 | CraineTrain derailed...how long?
| | 3 | Samford | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 831 | 6 | Can their Air Assault sustain them?
| | 4 | Mercer | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 777 | 14 | Quietly improving each week | | 5 | Wofford | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 757 | 20 | Can they take down the #1 Team in the Country this week? |
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| Conf | Conf | Overall | Overall | FUBeAR | FUBeAR |
| | SoCon Rank | TEAM | W | L | W | L | Rating | National Ranking | Comment | | 6 | VMI | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | <757 | >20 | Almost came back in 3rd quarter on Sammy | | 7 | Furman | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | <756 | >21 | Big win earns a week vacation and a chance to move up | | 8 | WCU | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | <755 | >22 | Better than their record | | 9 | ETSU | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | <754 | >23 | Lost whatever propelled to 2 wins to open |
5 SoCon Teams in the Top 20 looks about right to me. Now that everyone knows the SoCon will have 4 Teams in the Playoffs this season, it's time to start considering if that number should really be 5. Mr. Wilson thinks so. Tim Allen was always enlightened by Mr. Wilson's wisdom. Perhaps the FCS Community could also benefit from such edification.
By the way, Mr. Wilson, who hails from the Midwest, also asked me to include his Conference-by-Conference Power Ratings in this post...
RANK CONFERENCE RATING
1 Southern Conference 766
2 Missouri Valley Football Conference 763
3 Big South 699
4 Colonial Athletic Association 690
5 Big Sky Conference 683
6 Ohio Valley Conference 644
7 Southland Conference 643
8 Patriot League 637
9 Ivy League 630
10 Northeast Conference 593
11 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference 576
12 Pioneer Football League 553
13 Southwestern Athletic Conference 542
Yep...I can support that. |
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Oct 17, 2016 14:30:10 GMT -5
Well if we're going to live up to that ranking we're gonna need something like a 52-14 win. I don't think we've put together a complete game yet this season so it's entirely possible.
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 17, 2016 14:50:15 GMT -5
Looking at Austin Peay results so far this year is a bit of an enigma. Check it out.
Lost to Troy 57-17. 40 point differential. Troy is in FBS, but just barely. Scum Belch team.
Lost to Tenn Tech 41-7. 34 point differential. Tenn Tech is rated #75 in FCS and we beat them 34-27 (which included The Worst Call In The History Of College Football)
Lost to Eastern Illinois 56-35. 21 point differential. EIU is the #30 rated team in FCS.
Lost to Murray State 54-17. 28 point differential. Murray is the #86 rated team in FCS
Lost to UT - Martin 45-31. 14 point differential. UT-Martin is the #51 rated team in FCS.
Lost to Jacksonville State 34-14. 20 point differential. Jax State is the #4 rated team in FCS.
Seem like the better the team is ranked, the better AP's defense turns up. Or mostly that their best defensive effort appeared to be against Jax State, which is a Top 5 team. Perhaps the Governors are improving as the year goes along?
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 17, 2016 15:24:50 GMT -5
Looking at Austin Peay results so far this year is a bit of an enigma. Check it out. Lost to Troy 57-17. 40 point differential. Troy is in FBS, but just barely. Scum Belch team. Lost to Tenn Tech 41-7. 34 point differential. Tenn Tech is rated #75 in FCS and we beat them 34-27 (which included The Worst Call In The History Of College Football) Lost to Eastern Illinois 56-35. 21 point differential. EIU is the #30 rated team in FCS. Lost to Murray State 54-17. 28 point differential. Murray is the #86 rated team in FCS Lost to UT - Martin 45-31. 14 point differential. UT-Martin is the #51 rated team in FCS. Lost to Jacksonville State 34-14. 20 point differential. Jax State is the #4 rated team in FCS. Seem like the better the team is ranked, the better AP's defense turns up. Or mostly that their best defensive effort appeared to be against Jax State, which is a Top 5 team. Perhaps the Governors are improving as the year goes along? When the Bears and Governors tee it up on Saturday, the Govs will not have won a game in over 2 years (defeated Murray State 20-13 on 10/18/14 the week after losing to Mercer 49-21). And, it was almost 2 years between that victory and their most recent win before that on 11/17/12. They have won 3 games in 5 Seasons (including 0-6 this year). That makes them... ... VERY DANGEROUS. (There's an Eddie Murphy line in "48 Hours" that I won't quote here, but is, IMHO, rather analogous to how their Players are thinking right about now) They have a new (and quite well-respected) Coaching Staff this year. The improvement you noted is REAL. It's hard to see and even harder for their Fans to feel, but I'm sure they are getting better and better each week. They will also feel that THIS game is their best chance to get a win THIS year. Their Head Coach and several of their Assistants came from Chattanooga, so they know the Bears well AND they (the Coaches) know how to WIN. I suspect they will pull out ALL of the stops to get this win at home. Mercer will need to, IMHO, establish that they can run the ball, as they did vs. WCU (and, IMHO after watching the ESPN3 Replay, could have done so even more) and they will need to hit APSU early. Take their will away. Change their minds quickly that they can win this game. Create that "here we go again..." mindset in their Players from the 1st play or this game will also be a nail-biter which could swing the 'wrong' way. That's not something that a Sr. laden Team such as Mercer should let happen...and I suspect they will not. |
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Post by bear guest on Oct 17, 2016 16:46:12 GMT -5
I agree , we need a complete game and don't play down to competition.
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Post by MUfan on Oct 17, 2016 16:49:33 GMT -5
Whoop Peay !!
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 17, 2016 21:21:28 GMT -5
I found it curious that Tennessee Tech (2-5) with a win over AP received 3 votes in the STAT poll.
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 17, 2016 21:24:01 GMT -5
Starting out the week with a post I made on another board...If I have time, I'll come back and put it into tables, so it will make sense....but the takeaway is that at least 1 National Prognosticator ranks Mercer #14 in the FCS, #4 in the SoCon...and has 5 SoCon Teams in his Top 20 as he ranks the SoCon as the best conference in FCS....and he's from Wisconsin, BTW. I'm going to go ahead and post my Power Rankings for this week. I'll be back later with my predictions.
This week, I've decided to invite a Co-Ranker to join me in my Power Rankings. I'll let him rank the Top 5 and then I'll sort out the bottom 4. My Co-Ranker this week is the esteemed David L. Wilson. Mr. Wilson has a BS in Applied Mathematics and Engineering Physics, an MS in Computer Science, and a PhD (ABD) in Computer Sciences. His work is widely-known and is utilized as part of the Massey Composite Ratings. Below is how Mr. Wilson and his algorithms see the SoCon, including his National Ranking, this week.
Conf Conf Overall Overall Wilson Wilson
SoCon Rank Team W L W L Rating National Ranking Comment
1 Citadel 4 0 6 0 927 1 I hated putting them @ #2, but Mr. Wilson sez they #1 (in the whole US of A)
2 Chattanooga 4 1 6 1 866 4 CraineTrain derailed...how long?
3 Samford 3 1 5 1 831 6 Can their Air Assault sustain them?
4 Mercer 2 2 3 3 777 14 Quietly improving each week
5 Wofford 2 1 4 2 757 20 Can they take down the #1 Team in the Country this week?
Conf Conf Overall Overall FUBeAR FUBeAR Comment
SoCon
Rank Team W L W L Rating National
Ranking
6 VMI 1 2 3 3 <757 >20 Almost came back in 3rd quarter on Sammy
7 Furman 1 3 1 6 <756 >21 Big win earns a week vacation and a chance to move up
8 WCU 0 4 1 5 <755 >22 Better than their record
9 ETSU 1 4 2 4 <754 >23 Lost whatever propelled them to 2 wins to open
5 SoCon Teams in the Top 20 looks about right to me. Now that everyone knows the SoCon will have 4 Teams in the Playoffs this season, it's time to start considering if that number should really be 5. Mr. Wilson thinks so. Tim Allen was always enlightened by Mr. Wilson's wisdom. Perhaps the FCS Community could also benefit from such edification.
By the way, Mr. Wilson, who hails from the Midwest, also asked me to include his Conference-by-Conference Power Ratings in this post...
RANK CONFERENCE RATING
1 Southern Conference 766
2 Missouri Valley Football Conference 763
3 Big South 699
4 Colonial Athletic Association 690
5 Big Sky Conference 683
6 Ohio Valley Conference 644
7 Southland Conference 643
8 Patriot League 637
9 Ivy League 630
10 Northeast Conference 593
11 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference 576
12 Pioneer Football League 553
13 Southwestern Athletic Conference 542
Yep...I can support that.Is this the same Wilson who co-starred with Tom Hanks in the movie Castaway? |
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 17, 2016 22:19:49 GMT -5
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 17, 2016 22:20:32 GMT -5
I've come to realize the STATS Poll may actually be bullshit. Lol!
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 17, 2016 23:49:28 GMT -5
The Investment Report is out for this week...
Wesleyan at East Tennessee State - Thursday, October 20, 2016 7:30 PM
Wesleyan +13
Over/Under 47
So...Projected Score = 30-17 Bucs
The Citadel at Wofford - Saturday, October 22, 2016 1:30 PM
The Citadel pk
Wofford pk
Over/Under 40
So...Projected Score = 20-20 with OT to Infinity & Beyond!
VMI at Chattanooga - Saturday, October 22, 2016 2:00 PM
VMI +25
Over/Under 55
So...Projected Score = 40-15 Mocs
Southeast Missouri State at Tennessee Tech (Earlier Opponent) - Saturday, October 22, 2016 2:30 PM
Southeast Missouri State -1
Over 43
So...Projected Score = 22-21 Redhawks
Mercer at Austin Peay - Saturday, October 22, 2016 5:00 PM
Mercer -22
Over 63
So...Projected Score = 42-21-ish Bears
Western Carolina at Samford - Saturday, October 22, 2016 7:00 PM
Western Carolina +17
Over 68
So...Projected Score = 43-25-ish Bulldogs
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 18, 2016 8:23:10 GMT -5
Govs Show Growth in Loss at No. 3 Jacksonville StateJACKSONVILLE, Ala. – The Austin Peay State University football accomplished a pair of season first against No. 3 Jacksonville State after becoming the first FCS team to rush for over 100 yards and limiting the Gamecocks to under 100 yards through the air in a 34-14 loss Saturday afternoon in Burgess-Snow Field at JSU Stadium. The Governors were tied with the Gamecocks at the 11:46 mark of the second quarter courtesy of a 43-yard touchdown run by quarterback Timarious Mitchell. APSU went into the locker room trailing 14-7, but three consecutive scores by Jacksonville State to begin the third quarter was enough to pull ahead. Austin Peay recorded 235 total yards in the game, the most against JSU since 2013 (245 yards). [BTW - JSU has played SoCon Champion, Chattanooga, 3 times since 2013 - FUBeAR]Turning Point
After the Gamecocks pinned APSU deep at its own one yard line on the first drive of the second half, the Govs fumbled the snap which JSU recovered. The Gamecocks capitalized to punch it in for a touchdown, extending the lead to 21-7 which began a string of three-straight scores. APSU held Jacksonville, who entered the game as the NCAA 7th best offense, to its third lowest total offensive mark over the last two season after the Gamecocks accounted for only 328 yards Saturday. The last two times APSU failed to reach 300 total yards of offense came in the 2015 National Championship against North Dakota State on January 9, 2016, 204 yards, and at Michigan State on August 29, 2014, 244 yards. [LOL - Not exactly - FUBeAR]The Govs secondary limited preseason OVC Player of the Year and two-time All-American Eli Jenkins to just 9-of-20 through air. It was the first time since November 23, 2016 that JSU had not completed more than 10 passes in a regular season game.
Led by Mitchell's 54 yards on 16 carries and Kendall Morris' 43 yards on 17 carries, the Govs became the first FCS team in 2016 to rush for 100 yards against the Gamecocks. JSU entered play allowing just 88 yards per game on the ground. * With his three receptions on Saturday, senior receiver Rashaan Coleman moved into a tie for 10th place all-time in career catches. * In addition, junior receiver Jared Beard improved his all-time yardage ranking to ninth, 1,263, with 51 yards against the Gamecocks. * Beard continues his streak of totaling 50 or more receiving yards in a game, eclipsing the mark in every contest this season. * Fellow wide out Rashaan Coleman moved into a tie for 10th place on the all-time career reception list with 91 receptions after hauling in three catches Saturday. * Mitchell's 43-yard rushing touchdown is Austin Peay longest run of the season, passing Morris' 33-yard yard scamper at UT Martin last weekend. It was also the second longest run given up by JSU in 2016.
* Sophomore safety James Bond  nearly matched his career-high in tackles, two off his 12 against Murray State with 10 on Saturday. * Redshirt sophomore linebacker Gunnar Scholato recorded nine stops, giving him 73 tackles in 2016 and with at least eight per game. * Freshman defensive lineman Nick Putman recorded a career-high seven tackles, including one tackle for loss. Quotes
* Head Coach Will Healy on the turning point - "It was a self-inflicted wound which gave JSU the ball on the one yard line. I think we fought hard again, and I'm extremely proud of that. But if you're playing the No. 3 team in the country, and you give it to them on the one, you're probably in deep trouble. I'm proud of the fight, but we have to stop beating ourselves." [NOTE: Jax State didn't beat APSU; APSU beat themselves by 3 scores...hmmmm, OK - FUBeAR]* Head Coach Will Healy on his respect for Jacksonville State - "I think they are as good of a defense as we'll see all year. I've been in battles with them when I was at Chattanooga, and they've always been really good on the defensive side of the ball. They also have the best offensive player in this league in Eli Jenkins, and if you keep giving the ball back to him, he will make you pay."
* Head Coach Will Healy on the defensive front four - "I'll have to go back and watch, but from the sidelines I thought Nick Putman made a difference. Shaun Whittinghill and Jaison Williams play really hard, and I think Jule Pace has a chance to be a good player. Those four there made some noise."
Summary1st quarter - JSU 8:05 – The Gamecocks went for it on 4th and 3, with Eli Jenkins hitting Demontez Terry for an 11-yard touchdown. 2nd quarter - APSU 11:46 – On a read option play, quarterback Timarious Mitchell kept the ball, and turned it into a 43-yard rushing touchdown. 2nd quarter - JSU 5:59 – Jenkins led a quick three play drive, resulting in a four-yard rushing score by the quarterback. 3rd quarter - JSU 9:27 – After APSU fumbled the snap at their own one yard line, the Gamecocks quickly capitalized with a one-yard touchdown run by Josh Clemons. 3rd quarter - JSU 1:35 – To end the third quarter, Jenkins led a 13-play drive, capping it off with a five-yard touchdown scamper to extend JSU's lead to 27-7. 4th quarter - JSU 7:01 – After an APSU punt, Jacksonville State scored on the drive's first play – a 46-yard run by Clemons. 4th quarter - APSU 00:27 – Austin Peay second touchdown of the afternoon came in the game's final seconds, with Mitchell finding a wide open Jared Beard for a 22-yard pitch and catch. Next Up
Austin Peay returns to Fortera Stadium for its Homecoming game against Mercer, Oct. 22, with kickoff set for 4 p.m. [CENTRAL - 5 PM EASTERN - FUBeAR]
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 18, 2016 8:35:20 GMT -5
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 19, 2016 2:16:56 GMT -5
Jacksonville State Football - Weekly Press Conference - October 17, 2016 - Review of APSU - Eastern Kentucky Week
Head Coach John Grass - Opening Comments:
"It is good to be 2-0 in OVC play and it was good to get a win at home against a much-improved Austin Peay team. I think they played hard and Coach Healy is doing a great job with that program. They are going to get a win before it is all said and done..."
Also...Coach Grass discusses APSU before their game: 3:45 - 5:00
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 20, 2016 7:07:36 GMT -5
Since I posted 'half' of my post on the other Board to start this thread, I guess I should post the 2nd half of that post here also. Mercer seems to be a 2nd half Team, so I wouldn't want to mess that up... OK - Previously posted Power Rankings above...on to Predictions for this week... Last Week...3-0-1 * MY PICK: Furman at ETSU 31-10 / ACTUAL: Paladins won 52-7 - good job Brain, shoulda let the Heart have some input and we mighta been closer on the score * MY PICK: VMI at at Samford 52-21 / ACTUAL: Bullpups won 55-21 - dang it, I underestimated Sammy's offense again...3 points from exact  * MY PICK: Chattanooga at The Citadel 27-20 / ACTUAL: Bellhops won 22-14 - as I qualified this pick with "ONLY if...Craine is 100%...", I'm taking a 'push' on this one. Hate coming from El Cid fans in 3...2...1... * MY PICK: WCU at Mercer 42-17 / ACTUAL: Bears won 38-24 - close enough & a "W" is a "W" 25-12-1 - .676 for the season - hopin' to get to .727...y'know...about 8-3 or so. This Week
* Thu, Oct 20, 7:30 PM - WV Wesleyan @ ETSU - WVW is a D2 school that is 2-5 with their 2 wins coming against the 2 fellow Mountain East conference members that are last in the standings. WVW is certainly no Reinhardt (currently 7-0 and Ranked #3 in NAIA, BTW). This is WVW's only non-conference game, so they will want to rest injured players, etc. Bucs are holding a "Blue Out" and I expect they will get right and "Blow Out" the Bobcats 34-14
* Sat, Oct 22, 1:30 PM on ESPN3 - The Citadel @ Wofford - El Cid has not won in Sparkle City since Aerosmith was topping the charts with "I Don't Want To Miss a Thing" in 1998. I don't think many SoCon Fans will want to miss this game. Should be quite a BRAWL. Wofford's D looks TOUGH against the run with 3 Active 300+ Pounders starting on the DL and an an AGGRESSIVE Linebacker corps. They're only yielding 50 yds/game and only 2 TD's on the ground all season. Going with the LittleDogs in a tight one, perhaps on a final play at the goal line where the judgement of SoCon Referees will determine the victor. 24-23 * Sat, Oct 22, 2:00 PM on SDN - VMI @ Chattanooga - Mocs are smarting after losing to the Bellhops in Chucktown. I think they'll be playing without their DIFFERENCE-MAKER, Derrick Craine, this week, but I still think they have enough to beat the Keydets at home. They learned last year that you have to pressure Cobb to stop the Roos, so even though they normally get enough pressure with their DE's, they'll send some LB's and DB's this week and control the game. Mocs 35-21* Sat, Oct 22, 5:00 PM (Eastern) on OVCDN - Mercer @ Austin Peay - Governors are 0-6, but they ARE better than that. They have given oft-projected playoff team, EIU, a tough game and they even hung-in tough with VERY Highly ranked JaxSt last week for a while. In their last 2 games vs. the Bears, I thought APSU had some very good athletes; now they also have good Coaching with Chattanooga 'DNA.' They are getting better each week and will gel soon. This is Homecoming in Clarksville and this new Staff will pull out ALL the STOPS to win THIS game. Bears avoid being upset, but not by nearly as much as most expect. I see it 27-24 (because Mercer always wins the close ones) * Sat, Oct 22, 7:00 PM (Eastern) on ASN WCU @ Samford - Catamounts are reeling and they do a lot of things to beat themselves, but they have a secondary and LB group that can, from an athletic perspective, play man coverage as well as any in the SoCon. If they can turn man coverage into pressure and turnovers, they can win this game. Alas, they don't have the pass rushers to get to Hodges and they'll make a mental error or 3 on D that will lead to points. Unless Adams jumps over the Bullpups D and Newsome has a game to remember, the Cats O is not going to be enough to overcome the SammyAttack. Bullpups win it 48-24 |
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nearly matched his career-high in tackles, two off his 12 against Murray State with 10 on Saturday.