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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 23, 2016 3:28:37 GMT -5
| | SoCon Place | Team | SoCon Rec. | % | SoCon Home | SoCon Away | SoCon Streak | Overall Rec. | % | All Home | All Away | All Neutral | All Streak | Future SoCon | Future OOC | FUBeAR's Playoff Thoughts | | 1 | Cit. | 5-0 | 1.000 | 2-0 | 3-0 | W5 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | W7 | ETSU Samford at VMI | at North Carolina | Win 1/4 & IN | | 2 | Chatt. | 5-1 | .833 | 3-0 | 2-1 | W1 | 7-1 | .875 | 5-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | W1 | at WCU Wofford | at 'Bama | Win 1/3 & IN | | 3 | Samf. | 4-1 | .800 | 3-0 | 1-1 | W4 | 6-1 | .857 | 4-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | W4 | at Cit. Mercer at ETSU | at Miss. State | Win 2/4 & IN Win 1/4 & PROBABLE | | 4T | MU | 2-2 | .500 | 1-1 | 1-1 | W1 | 4-3 | .571 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | W2 | at Woff. ETSU at Samf. Furman | None | Win 4/4 & IN Win 3/4 & POSSIBLE | | 4T | Woff. | 2-2 | .500 | 1-1 | 1-1 | L1 | 4-3 | .571 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | L1 | Mercer at FU at Chatt. VMI | None | Win 4/4 & IN Win 3/4 & POSSIBLE | | 6T | FU | 1-3 | .250 | 0-2 | 1-1 | W1 | 1-6 | .143 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | W1 | at VMI Wofford WCU at Merc. | None | OUT  | | 6T | VMI | 1-3 | .250 | 1-1 | 0-2 | L2 | 3-4 | .429 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | L2 | Furman at WCU Citadel at Woff. | None | Win 4/4 & Possible | | 8 | ETSU | 1-4 | .200 | 0-2 | 0-2 | L4 | 3-4 | .429 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-0 | W1 | at Cit. at Merc. Samford | Cumber. College | OUT | | 9 | WCU | 0-5 | .000 | 0-2 | 0-2 | L5 | 1-6 | .143 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 0-1 | L5 | Chatt. VMI at FU | at South Carolina | OUT |
1) I believe it's possible for Samford, Mercer, and Wofford to ALL be at 7-4 (or better). IF that happens, the SoCon SHOULD get 5 Teams in the Playoffs (El Cid, Chatt, Samford, Mercer, and Wofford). I'm not saying that WILL happen. I'm saying it SHOULD! 2) If ANY 8-3 SoCon Team is left out of the Playoffs, The SoCon should secede from the FCS. I believe the boys from Charleston know how to help us get that started. 3) El Cid, Chatt, Sammy, Mercer, and Woffy still have a theoretical path to win the SoCon's AutoBid. Mercer's and Wofford's chances of that happening are slim as either must win out, El Cid must lose out (SoCon), Chatt must lose out (SoCon), and Sammy must lose to ETSU. With ETSU playing the Bellhops in Charleston this week, that's a REAL Long-Shot! VMI cannot get the Autobid because they already have 3 SoCon losses and have lost head-to-head to Chatt. 4) If ETSU can beat Cumberland College, the SoCon will finish the 2016 season with only 1 loss vs. Non-FBS Teams out of conference. 5) Furman, despite being eliminated from the Playoffs, still has a chance to claim a share of the SoCon Championship (as do all Teams except ETSU & WCU). If the Paladins win out and quite a few other games play out a certain way, there could be a 5-3 'logjam' at the top, but FU is out of the Playoffs because they would lose the tiebreakers to Chatt and El Cid (Teams that can't finish worse than 5-3)...AND FU cannot get to 6 wins. 6) Most likely, El Cid and Chatt will beat ETSU & WCU, respectfully, this week and Sammy is OOC, so there will probably not be any changes among the 3 Leaders. Also, if both of those wins occur, FU and VMI will be eliminated from a chance at a share of the SoCon Championship. Also, Mercer and Woffy will be eliminated from a chance at the SoCon Autobid. What do you see here? |
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Post by mercerfan on Oct 23, 2016 9:32:50 GMT -5
Mercer at Wofford is most likely an elimination game for playoff considerations. For Mercer to win they will have play up for all four quarters. I don't think they have done so this year to date. If Mercer gets an early lead, it is probably the kiss of death as we will go conservative and play prevent offense (i.e. VMI and AP). When that happens it is run up the middle twice and then pass on third and long with only a 30% success rate. Then the defense gets worn out. Then it is difficult to go back to an open offense as the momentum has swung against you. Any opposing coach who has scouted Mercer knows this tendency. That is why they start stacking the box with 8 on first and second down.
I think Mercer has the ability to beat Wofford, but they are going to have to play all 4 quarters.
Best case scenario is to keep it close and win late.
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Post by Bear fan on Oct 23, 2016 11:58:38 GMT -5
I agree with mufan will someone please help me to understand this late in the season why our offense is the way it is with playmakers like #87#13 #84#8 why we
don't put lesser teams away.
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Post by BearDownMU on Oct 24, 2016 9:46:44 GMT -5
I agree with mufan will someone please help me to understand this late in the season why our offense is the way it is with playmakers like #87#13 #84#8 why we don't put lesser teams away. Three things: 1) I'd prolly include #7 on a "playmakers" list 2) Define "lesser teams". 3) Define "is the way it is" regarding the offense. |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 25, 2016 11:55:54 GMT -5
I agree with most of FUBeAR's points, but...
While I agree that the SoCon has rebounded to be one of the premier leagues in FCS and deserves better, I am not sure the committee's love affair with certain other conferences won't once again keep us at probably 2 (and no better than 3) bids. No offense to anybody given how poorly Western has played, but for the conference's sake I'd say the only guaranteed path to 3 teams making it is for the top 3 above to end up in a 3-way tie with 7-1 conference records. If it is left up to others to determine, that secession movement might be required - it would be crazy to think an 8-win SoCon team was not deserving and multiple 7-win teams should make somebody (or 2) get chosen from that pack. But based on previous years, I'd say you better not get to 7 and hope for a bid. It will be very interesting (and telling) to see what happens if the SoCon ends up with a logjam of 7-4 records.
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Post by jackal on Oct 25, 2016 14:25:07 GMT -5
Mercer at Wofford is most likely an elimination game for playoff considerations. For Mercer to win they will have play up for all four quarters. I don't think they have done so this year to date. If Mercer gets an early lead, it is probably the kiss of death as we will go conservative and play prevent offense (i.e. VMI and AP). When that happens it is run up the middle twice and then pass on third and long with only a 30% success rate. Then the defense gets worn out. Then it is difficult to go back to an open offense as the momentum has swung against you. Any opposing coach who has scouted Mercer knows this tendency. That is why they start stacking the box with 8 on first and second down. I think Mercer has the ability to beat Wofford, but they are going to have to play all 4 quarters. Best case scenario is to keep it close and win late. Wofford/Mercer is absolutely an elimination game for the post season. Assuming Mercer loses to Wofford and wins out, they'd be 7-4 (5-3) and unlikely to finish in the top 4 in the SoCon. I just don't see any way they'd get in with that record. Just my opinion, but the only way that Mercer gets in the post season is by winning out, and maybe only hoping Samford continues to move up in the ranking before beating them. Right now the Bears have 4 wins over teams with a combined record of 7-22. The only team that is going to help improve that resume is a highly ranked Samford. I guess Mercer fans have to (1) pull for Mercer to win out, and (2) hope Samford loses one of their remaining SoCon. At 8-3 with their resume, I would think the Bears would need to be no worse than 3rd in the SoCon. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 25, 2016 15:04:49 GMT -5
Mercer at Wofford is most likely an elimination game for playoff considerations. For Mercer to win they will have play up for all four quarters. I don't think they have done so this year to date. If Mercer gets an early lead, it is probably the kiss of death as we will go conservative and play prevent offense (i.e. VMI and AP). When that happens it is run up the middle twice and then pass on third and long with only a 30% success rate. Then the defense gets worn out. Then it is difficult to go back to an open offense as the momentum has swung against you. Any opposing coach who has scouted Mercer knows this tendency. That is why they start stacking the box with 8 on first and second down. I think Mercer has the ability to beat Wofford, but they are going to have to play all 4 quarters. Best case scenario is to keep it close and win late. Wofford/Mercer is absolutely an elimination game for the post season. Assuming Mercer loses to Wofford and wins out, they'd be 7-4 (5-3) and unlikely to finish in the top 4 in the SoCon. I just don't see any way they'd get in with that record. Just my opinion, but the only way that Mercer gets in the post season is by winning out, and maybe only hoping Samford continues to move up in the ranking before beating them. Right now the Bears have 4 wins over teams with a combined record of 7-22. The only team that is going to help improve that resume is a highly ranked Samford. I guess Mercer fans have to (1) pull for Mercer to win out, and (2) hope Samford loses one of their remaining SoCon. At 8-3 with their resume, I would think the Bears would need to be no worse than 3rd in the SoCon. ANY 8-3 SoCon Team WILL be in the Playoffs.... If Mercer loses a very close game to Wofford AND beats Samford (with Samford possibly beating Mississippi State AND/OR The Citadel - finishing 9-2 or 8-3)...and, perhaps, if Wofford beats FU, Chatt, and VMI....finishing 8-3....then I believe there is an excellent chance we could see 5 SoCon Team make the Playoffs this year. The SoCon is ranked the strongest or, at worst, the 2nd strongest Conference in FCS. There is absolutely no reason that the CAA or the Big Sky should get more Teams in the Playoffs than the SoCon and a strong argument can be made that the MVFC should not either. There are 10 AutoBids and 14 At-Large berths. I could see 4 of those 14 from the SoCon, 4 from the MVFC, 2 from the Big Sky, 2 from the CAA, 1 from the OVC (maybe) or the Big South, and 1 from the SLC. At the beginning of this season, the Doubters & Haters scoffed and sneered when I talked about the SoCon getting 4 in. They said 2 was the Maximum possible and anything more was nothing but a pipe dream. Now, almost every projection I see has 4 SoCon Teams in the brackets. Some luddites only have 3, but they'll come around. And...it's time to start thinking about...not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4....BUT 5 SoCon Team in this year's Playoffs!!! #SoConRiseUp #LessThan4Nevermore #Thinking5WillStayAlive |
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Post by jackal on Oct 25, 2016 15:21:26 GMT -5
Wofford/Mercer is absolutely an elimination game for the post season. Assuming Mercer loses to Wofford and wins out, they'd be 7-4 (5-3) and unlikely to finish in the top 4 in the SoCon. I just don't see any way they'd get in with that record. Just my opinion, but the only way that Mercer gets in the post season is by winning out, and maybe only hoping Samford continues to move up in the ranking before beating them. Right now the Bears have 4 wins over teams with a combined record of 7-22. The only team that is going to help improve that resume is a highly ranked Samford. I guess Mercer fans have to (1) pull for Mercer to win out, and (2) hope Samford loses one of their remaining SoCon. At 8-3 with their resume, I would think the Bears would need to be no worse than 3rd in the SoCon. ANY 8-3 SoCon Team WILL be in the Playoffs.... If Mercer loses a very close game to Wofford AND beats Samford (with Samford possibly beating Mississippi State AND/OR The Citadel - finishing 9-2 or 8-3)...and, perhaps, if Wofford beats FU, Chatt, and VMI....finishing 8-3....then I believe there is an excellent chance we could see 5 SoCon Team make the Playoffs this year. The SoCon is ranked the strongest or, at worst, the 2nd strongest Conference in FCS. There is absolutely no reason that the CAA or the Big Sky should get more Teams in the Playoffs than the SoCon and a strong argument can be made that the MVFC should not either. There are 10 AutoBids and 14 At-Large berths. I could see 4 of those 14 from the SoCon, 4 from the MVFC, 2 from the Big Sky, 2 from the CAA, 1 from the OVC (maybe) or the Big South, and 1 from the SLC. At the beginning of this season, the Doubters & Haters scoffed and sneered when I talked about the SoCon getting 4 in. They said 2 was the Maximum possible and anything more was nothing but a pipe dream. Now, almost every projection I see has 4 SoCon Teams in the brackets. Some luddites only have 3, but they'll come around. And...it's time to start thinking about...not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4....BUT 5 SoCon Team in this year's Playoffs!!! #SoConRiseUp #LessThan4Nevermore #Thinking5WillStayAlive I appreciate your optimism. I'd be stunned if 5 teams isn't going to happen. Most likely 3 with possibly 4 depending on who the 4th team is and how that team compares with other bubble teams in other conferences. I think Samford, UTC, and Citadel are in barring a monumental collapse. Mercer and Wofford need to start winning and winning decisively. |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 26, 2016 10:33:08 GMT -5
I totally agree that any 8-3 team should be in. The problem with this is that many of the teams vying to get to that are playing against one another the rest of the way. And given that lots of SoCon games stay relatively close, somebody like Furman could pee in the whole bowl of Cornflakes for 1 or 2 teams and knock them down to 7-4 or even 6-5. The conference will also most likely have some really ugly losses to "big" schools down the stretch that aren't supposed to matter, but sometimes people remember the last thing they saw (like a top team in the conference getting trounced by somebody like an Alabama or UNC). Again, shouldn't even be taken into consideration, and can actually help if teams play well against the big boys. But opinions can be swayed just be a score pretty easily.
Like I said, it will be very telling to see what the bids look like if the SoCon ends up with a bunch of 7-4 teams and only one 8 or 9-win team. Don't get me wrong - I am hopeful we have 4 bids (and 3-4 should be a given with our OOC results assuming there are at least three 8-win teams), but there is a wild-ride to the finish for the entire current top 5 teams that will ultimately decide it all.
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Post by jackal on Oct 26, 2016 11:24:34 GMT -5
I totally agree that any 8-3 team should be in. The problem with this is that many of the teams vying to get to that are playing against one another the rest of the way. And given that lots of SoCon games stay relatively close, somebody like Furman could pee in the whole bowl of Cornflakes for 1 or 2 teams and knock them down to 7-4 or even 6-5. The conference will also most likely have some really ugly losses to "big" schools down the stretch that aren't supposed to matter, but sometimes people remember the last thing they saw (like a top team in the conference getting trounced by somebody like an Alabama or UNC). Again, shouldn't even be taken into consideration, and can actually help if teams play well against the big boys. But opinions can be swayed just be a score pretty easily. Like I said, it will be very telling to see what the bids look like if the SoCon ends up with a bunch of 7-4 teams and only one 8 or 9-win team. Don't get me wrong - I am hopeful we have 4 bids (and 3-4 should be a given with our OOC results assuming there are at least three 8-win teams), but there is a wild-ride to the finish for the entire current top 5 teams that will ultimately decide it all. With only one game left between UTC/Samford/Citadel (Samford at Citadel), the top of the conference should come through relatively unscathed. That should, again barring an epic collapse, would give the SoCon at least three teams sitting potentially at 9-2 or 8-3. The reason I struggle to see 5, and likely 4, is that Mercer and Wofford really need to notch a big win against someone. Right now both teams have favorable records, but no significant win. You look at other teams destined for 7-4/8-3 around the country, and some of them have marquee wins over top 25 teams (Northern Arizona, New Hampshire, etc.). Neither Mercer or Wofford has that right now. Still a chance with UTC (Wofford) and Samford (Mercer) still on the schedule. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 26, 2016 15:27:06 GMT -5
I totally agree that any 8-3 team should be in. The problem with this is that many of the teams vying to get to that are playing against one another the rest of the way. And given that lots of SoCon games stay relatively close, somebody like Furman could pee in the whole bowl of Cornflakes for 1 or 2 teams and knock them down to 7-4 or even 6-5. The conference will also most likely have some really ugly losses to "big" schools down the stretch that aren't supposed to matter, but sometimes people remember the last thing they saw (like a top team in the conference getting trounced by somebody like an Alabama or UNC). Again, shouldn't even be taken into consideration, and can actually help if teams play well against the big boys. But opinions can be swayed just be a score pretty easily. Like I said, it will be very telling to see what the bids look like if the SoCon ends up with a bunch of 7-4 teams and only one 8 or 9-win team. Don't get me wrong - I am hopeful we have 4 bids (and 3-4 should be a given with our OOC results assuming there are at least three 8-win teams), but there is a wild-ride to the finish for the entire current top 5 teams that will ultimately decide it all. With only one game left between UTC/Samford/Citadel (Samford at Citadel), the top of the conference should come through relatively unscathed. That should, again barring an epic collapse, would give the SoCon at least three teams sitting potentially at 9-2 or 8-3. The reason I struggle to see 5, and likely 4, is that Mercer and Wofford really need to notch a big win against someone. Right now both teams have favorable records, but no significant win. You look at other teams destined for 7-4/8-3 around the country, and some of them have marquee wins over top 25 teams (Northern Arizona, New Hampshire, etc.). Neither Mercer or Wofford has that right now. Still a chance with UTC (Wofford) and Samford (Mercer) still on the schedule. Who are New Hampshire's "marquee wins" - W&M? They also lost to Elon by 3 scores for goodness sake. Elon was curbstomped by Gardner-Webb...and winless-in-the-SoCon-WCU, curbstomped Gardner-Webb. OOC, UNH beat, um, let's see...1 Team...Holy Cross...a 3-5 Patriot League Team. UNH also lost to Dartmouth, who lost to Columbia...COLUMBIA! Don't give me New Hampshire...that chihuahua ain't gonna hunt! Northern Arizona...seriously? The Lumbjacks very well may finish 4-7. Assuming they don't, who are Northern Arizona's "marquee wins" - Montana? Montana struggled to beat the NEC's St. Francis, trailing at half and in the 4th quarter. The only semi-good wins Montana has at this point are over a 3-4 Southern Utah and a 3-4 Northern Iowa. Hard to say, at this point, if those are even semi-good wins or not. NAU - the only reason to think about putting them in the Playoffs is that it gives us a reason to listen to (and sing) this song! |
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Post by jackal on Oct 26, 2016 21:42:16 GMT -5
It is a beauty contest. Wins over ranked teams are wins over ranked teams. Those games matter on the bubble.
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