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Post by FUBeAR on Jul 5, 2018 16:41:41 GMT -5
#37 FCS Ranked - Mercer Bears - Macon, GADate
| Home / Away | Opponent | Opponent’s
Massey FCS Rank | % Chance
of a
Mercer Win | Points For | Points Against | | 09-01 | Away | Memphis (L) | 42 (D1 FBS) | 2% | 17 | 46 | 09-08
| Home | Jacksonville (W) | 113 | 98% | 42 | 14 | 09-15
| Away | Samford* (L) | 26 | 29% | 21 | 28 | 09-22
| Home | Citadel* (W) | 61 | 71% | 28 | 21 | 09-29
| Away | VMI* (W) | 114 | 97% | 31 | 6 | 10-13
| Away | Yale (L) | 25 | 29% | 20 | 27 | 10-20
| Home | W Carolina* (W) | 45 | 61% | 31 | 27 | 10-27
| Away | Wofford* (L) | 32 | 34% | 21 | 27 | 11-03
| Home | ETSU* (W) | 82 | 86% | 28 | 14 | 11-10
| Away | Chattanooga* (W) | 60 | 60% | 24 | 21 | | 11-17 | Home | Furman* (L) | 30 | 43% | 25 | 28 |
What do you think?
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Post by MUfan on Jul 5, 2018 19:30:43 GMT -5
Hoping for 8-3. Anything less than 7-4 will be disappointing.
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Post by FUBeAR on Jul 5, 2018 19:53:15 GMT -5
Hoping for 8-3. Anything less than 7-4 will be disappointing. 5-3 would be an improvement & best-ever SoCon record for the Bears. If they can do that (only lose to an FBS & the 3 SoCon Teams that are ‘unanimously’ ranked above them) & ‘steal’ the game @ Yale, 7-4, is do-able & MIGHT even ‘sneak ‘em’ into the Playoffs. I’m thinking, even though it’s away, that Wofford game might also be one that can be ‘stolen.’ 8-3 should be, much more likely than not, a Playoff-worthy season. |
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Post by jackal on Jul 5, 2018 20:14:25 GMT -5
Wouldn't have guessed it, but the last time Bobby Lamb won five SoCon games was 2009.
6-5 seems like a reasonable assessment if for no other reason than the Bears have won 5 or 6 games every year since joining the SoCon.
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Jul 6, 2018 9:07:11 GMT -5
I think Wofford is in rebuilding mode so that should be winnable. Samford, Citadel, Yale, Western, ETSU, Chatt, and Furman could probably all go either way. Being at Home for Citadel, Western, ETSU and Furman helps.
Just at this point, I think flip Chatt and Wofford and give us the win over Furman. Maybe beat Yale, but that's a long trip and they are coming off an Ivy league championship. 7-4 (6-2).
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Post by FUBeAR on Jul 6, 2018 10:58:20 GMT -5
Maybe beat Yale, but that's a long trip and they are coming off an Ivy league championship. 7-4 (6-2). Yes, coming off IL Championship, but the Bulldogs...(1 of 3 Bulldog Teams on this year’s schedule - too bad Mercer didn’t get UGa instead of Memphis & Gardner-Webb instead of Jacksonville this year  )...lost >7 Starters on each side of the ball. Average Starters lost in FCS is 4 on O & 4.5 on D, so they lost, comparatively, A LOT of Sr. Leadership. But, hey, don’t just take it from me. Here’s what an ‘inside source’ recently posted on an Ivy League message board... ”I am a Yale Football Dad. My son is a senior next fall. I can confirm to all the Yale Football fans in this forum that there is a much different team culture this summer in New Haven. Last year's team had great senior leadership; especially on the offensive line and the defensive linebackers and defensive backs. Both these groups had much to do with the championship last season. This season's Yale Football seniors have tasted success. But they have been challenged to lead like last year's senior class.”They are returning their Starting QB & Top RB, who was a FR All-American; but their OL situation is much like Wofford’s. They lost 3 Sr Starters and only return 22 Total starts among the 2 Returning Starters & Backups (who will be Starters this year). That is a very green OL group. Also, like Wofford, they are replacing their heavily experienced OL Coach (who was also their OC & left for the HC job at Fordham) with a guy who has NEVER been a ‘real’ Coach at any level. And he is actually a replacement for the original (also lightly experienced) replacement, who left after a month or so. Green Coach Coaching green Players is usually not a recipe for success in the OL. They also lost their Top 2 Retrievers. We’ll see, I guess. On D, they lost their entire Starting Secondary & their Top 5 Tacklers; 8 of the Top 14. They lost, I think, a couple of Starters on the DL & a couple of heavily rotating backups, along with 1 LB, who, oh, by the way, was an Atlanta Falcons Draft Pick. That is definitely a winnable game for a veteran Bears Team. Just need to go up there and take it to them & TAKE the game FROM them! |
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Jul 6, 2018 13:38:00 GMT -5
Ok then beat Yale but lose to Western because we get big heads. 7-4(5-3)
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Post by FUBeAR on Jul 6, 2018 23:35:58 GMT -5
Ok then beat Yale but lose to Western because we get big heads. 7-4(5-3) Ivy League Preview Podcast from Football Gameplan. If you care to listen to 1 hour of chatter about Ivy League Football FCS Opening Drive - 2018 Ivy League Preview
Yale Preview kicks off at just over 7 minutes into the hour. |
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Post by jackal on Jul 8, 2018 19:14:40 GMT -5
I'll be pulling for Mercer over Yale. I think the SoCon could do well to win some big ooc matchups against good teams.
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Post by jackal on Jul 9, 2018 7:31:43 GMT -5
I think Wofford is in rebuilding mode so that should be winnable. Samford, Citadel, Yale, Western, ETSU, Chatt, and Furman could probably all go either way. Being at Home for Citadel, Western, ETSU and Furman helps. Just at this point, I think flip Chatt and Wofford and give us the win over Furman. Maybe beat Yale, but that's a long trip and they are coming off an Ivy league championship. 7-4 (6-2). Mercer's a tough team to forecast. They have talent, though (in my opinion), have tended to struggle to put everything together and exhibit week-in/week-out consistency. Some weeks they look great, some weeks they look terrible. As I look at their schedule, I think they'll be well positioned for a run at the post season. I think the ability to do that will depend on how they handle the final four game stretch. I am really circling the Sept. 15 game in Birmingham. The Bears put up a pretty embarrassing effort against Samford last season. Both teams will be coming off a tough game against an FBS opponent and what should be an easier game against a lesser opponent.* That will be the first real test for both teams and should tell us a lot about the season. That's a big game for both teams. To make the post-season, I think Mercer really needs to beat Yale and not drop a game to a team they are favored to beat (UTC, ETSU, VMI, the Citadel). If they can win those five and beat Jacksonville, they'll need to win two of Furman, Samford, WCU, and Wofford. As usual, a 7-4 team can make the field, but you don't necessarily want to bank on that, especially if you finish 4th. *I have no idea why Shorter appears on the schedule of the presumptive SoCon front runner. Shorter was an 0-11 D2 squad last year. They should not be anywhere near a SoCon schedule.** **Watch and see if Chris Hatcher unleashes an offensive barrage against Shorter and keeps Hodges in the game most of the contest. Hodges is in a race to be FCS all time leader in offense, and I've gotten every impression that is important to Coach Hatcher, who keeps his star in the game almost exclusively regardless of the score. What better way to close in on the record than facing a completely out gunned D2 squad? |
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Post by FUBeAR on Jul 9, 2018 8:29:25 GMT -5
I think Wofford is in rebuilding mode so that should be winnable. Samford, Citadel, Yale, Western, ETSU, Chatt, and Furman could probably all go either way. Being at Home for Citadel, Western, ETSU and Furman helps. Just at this point, I think flip Chatt and Wofford and give us the win over Furman. Maybe beat Yale, but that's a long trip and they are coming off an Ivy league championship. 7-4 (6-2). The Bears put up a ridiculously, horrendously, embarrassingly inept Offensive effort against Samford last season. FYP The Mercer D gave up 2 TD’s; one of those on a drive that started on the Mercer side of midfield. I don't care about total yards or completion %. If the D holds a top-tier Offense like Samford’s to only 2 TD’s AND gives the ball back to the Offense with 4 take-aways, they played well enough to win. Bill Cosby once had a ‘bit’ where he talked about having his tonsils out & there was a line in there about the purpose of tonsils being to help fight illness & infections, but that his tonsils had joined the other Team. That’s how I felt about Mercer’s Offense vs. Samford last year. Heck, they even proved it! They put up 3 offensive points for Mercer & scored 4 points for Samford. You’re not going to win many games when your Offensive point production = -1. |
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Post by jackal on Jul 9, 2018 9:35:37 GMT -5
The Bears put up a ridiculously, horrendously, embarrassingly inept Offensive effort against Samford last season. FYP The Mercer D gave up 2 TD’s; one of those on a drive that started on the Mercer side of midfield. I don't care about total yards or completion %. If the D holds a top-tier Offense like Samford’s to only 2 TD’s AND gives the ball back to the Offense with 4 take-aways, they played well enough to win. Bill Cosby once had a ‘bit’ where he talked about having his tonsils out & there was a line in there about the purpose of tonsils being to help fight illness & infections, but that his tonsils had joined the other Team. That’s how I felt about Mercer’s Offense vs. Samford last year. Heck, they even proved it! They put up 3 offensive points for Mercer & scored 4 points for Samford. You’re not going to win many games when your Offensive point production = -1. It is hard to fully get on the Mercer-to-playoffs train until I stop seeing games like that. They are consistently inconsistent. While Mercer has showed a penchant for big statement wins, but also has a tendency to put together some complete duds. The Samford game was hard to explain. Losing to a less talented ETSU team was also hard to explain. |
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Jul 9, 2018 12:48:34 GMT -5
The addition of a play calling OC should help with some of the offensive inconsistency from week to week. The playoff hype is probably mostly coming from finally having a fully stocked scholarship roster, meaning we have redshirt seniors from the first SoCon year and being competitive every year.
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)...lost >7 Starters on each side of the ball. Average Starters lost in FCS is 4 on O & 4.5 on D, so they lost, comparatively, A LOT of Sr. Leadership. But, hey, don’t just take it from me. Here’s what an ‘inside source’ recently posted on an Ivy League message board...