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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 3, 2018 9:03:40 GMT -5
If I’m not mistaken, at this point, only 3 of the 9 SoCon Teams remain in complete control of their own destiny...After this week, it could be down to 2. #GoMocs
* ETSU - because they are undefeated in Conference. Win out and they are SoCon Champs and get the Autobid.
* Wofford - because they are undefeated in Conference. Win out and they are SoCon Champs and get the Autobid.
* Mercer - because they only have 1 Conference loss to a Team that has 2 Conference losses AND they have not yet played the 2 Teams with 0 Conference losses. Win out and they are SoCon Champs AND get the Autobid.
These 6 Teams are NOT in control of their destiny...because...
* Chattanooga - because of their loss to ETSU. They would need ETSU to lose 2 Conference games AND win out. If they don’t win out, they would need ETSU to lose 3 games AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* WCU - because, even if WCU wins out, Furman could also win out AND ETSU could lose 2 Conference games AND a whole lot of other stuff, could leave WCU relying on an At-Large bid...even with a 10-1 record. Sure, they would get one at 10-1/7-1 with an FBS win and probably even at 9-2/7-1. At 8-3/6-2 with a D2 win among the 8, based on the SoCon OOC results this year, I doubt the Catamounts would receive a bid.
* Furman - If ETSU and Furman win out, Furman is 7-3/6-1 and would need an At-Large bid. Based on SoCon OOC results AND the Elon debacle, I think FU stays home at 7-3. Dammit!
* The Citadel - Would need Wofford to lose 3 SoCon games AND Chattanooga to lose 2 more AND win out AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* Samford - Would need Mercer & Chatt to lose 2 more SoCon games each & Wofford to lose 3 SoCon games AND win out AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* VMI - Would need to win out AND would need ETSU to lose out and Wofford to beat ETSU, but lose its other remaining SoCon games AND a whole lot of other stuff, which may be mathematically impossible, to happen.
Note: Obviously, as Conference games are played, any of the 3 Teams now ‘in control’ can lose that control with a loss. But, the converse is also true, at least in some cases. The Teams, now, not in control of their own destiny could regain control by winning and by the “right” Teams losing Conference games.
Even though Mercer does not have another SoCon game until 10/20 at home vs. WCU, I will try to remember to update this “SoCon SoFar” thread following the outcomes of the games on 10/6 & 10/13.
As intimated above, only Wofford, this week, could ‘lose control’ by losing to Chatt. While WCU is playing @ Samford this week, neither of those Teams can regain control of their destiny (this week) regardless of the outcome of their game and/or of the Wofford @ Chatt. game. If Samford loses to WCU, they may be ‘all but’ eliminated from SoCon/Playoff possibilities. They almost are now, but not quite.
As Mercer ‘holds’ a win over Samford and is tied with WCU in the SoCon loss column, Mercer fans should be pulling for Samford to win that game. Also, as Mercer and Chatt both have 1 SoCon loss & Wofford has 0, Mercer fans should be pulling for the Mocs to upset the Terriers game his week.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 7, 2018 1:58:14 GMT -5
With the 10/6 results, nothing changes in terms of ‘destiny control.’ ETSU, Wofford, and Mercer remain the only 3 SoCon Teams that can win the SoCon Championship & earn the SoCon autobid ‘simply’ by winning all of their remaining SoCon games.
Wofford caught up the 1/2 game they had trailed ETSU in the win column by beating Chatt 21-10. And, by virtue of Chatt’s loss, Mercer is alone in 3rd place, behind 3-0 ETSU & Wofford; a game ahead of Chatt in the loss column, and a game ahead of Furman in the win column.
Next week will be interesting. While Mercer is OOC @ Yale, all other 8 SoCon Teams are squaring off in Conference tilts. Mercer fans should be pulling for Furman to hang a L on Wofford in Paladin Stadium (FUBeAR sure will be!) and for the bellhops to sink ETSU’s undefeated SoCon ship by the sea in ChuckTown. Those outcomes would bring ETSU & Wofford within a 1/2 game of Mercer. Now, it would also pull Furman up to a tie with Mercer in 3rd place. While Bears’ Fans were also Samford Fans this week, next week, that allegiance needs to shift to the Keydets and hope they can come down to Homewood and re-ground Samford’s revived Offense. Just think of it as Mercer Football Fan’s Military Appreciation Weekend. In the other matchup, Bears Fans will want WCU to find their Team (or any Team, really) and whip Chattanooga at home in Cullowhee.
Then Mercer will need to return from the Ivy-Covered buildings & mud-covered field of New Haven, CT and “TCB” - Starting with WCU in Macon on 10/20.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 13, 2018 18:21:20 GMT -5
If I’m not mistaken, there are only 2 SoCon Teams with 100% control of their own destiny at this point - ETSU & your Mercer Bears.
...more later
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 14, 2018 0:17:25 GMT -5
Here’s the way I cipher it out at this point...Unless I’m missing something, I believe, after this week’s results, that only ETSU & Mercer truly control their own destinies with regard to the SoCon Championship & the NCAA FCS Playoffs Autobid that is extended to the SoCon Champion (with some tie-breaking procedures that begin with head-to-head results).
Definition of “control their own destinies” - either of these Teams... ‘only’ ... have to win all of their remaining SoCon games and they will be the SoCon Champs AND get the Playoff Autobid...
CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINIES
* ETSU - 4-0 - If they beat WC, WCU, MU, & SU = 8-0 - Solo Champs + Autobid
* MU - 2-1 - If they beat WCU, WC, ETSU, UTC, & FU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/ETSU + Autobid. Outright Champ if ETSU loses 1+ ‘other’ game
STRAIGHTFORWARD PATH, BUT ALSO NEED 1 OTHER TEAM TO LOSE
* FU - 2-1 - If they beat SU, CIT, UTC, VMI, & MU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/ETSU, but no Autobid unless ETSU loses 2+
* WC - 3-1 - If they beat ETSU, MU, SU, & WCU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ, but needs FU to lose 1+ to secure Autobid
COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING 2 OR 3 OTHER TEAMS
* UTC - 3-2 - If they beat VMI, FU, & MU = 6-2 - Would need ETSU to lose 3+ AND WC to lose 2+ to get Autobid
* SU - 2-2 - If they beat FU, WC, CIT, ETSU = 6-2 - Would need ETSU to lose 1 ‘other’ game AND need MU to lose 2+, and need UTC to lose 1+ to get Autobid
EXTREMELY COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING MULTIPLE TEAMS; PATH MAY NOT EVEN BE POSSIBLE
* WCU - 1-3 - If they beat MU, ETSU, CIT, & WC = 5-3 - Would need ETSU to lose 2+ ‘other’ games AND MU & WC to lose 1+ ‘other’ game, AND FU to lose 3+ AND need UTC & SU to lose 2+
* CIT - 1-3 - If they beat VMI, FU, WCU, & SU = 5-3 - Would need ETSU to lose (all) 4 AND need MU AND UTC to lose 2+ AND would need FU to lose 1 ‘other’ game AND would need WC to lose 3+
NO PATH
* VMI - 0-5 - Cannot win SoCon nor get Autobid
Anyone see this ciphering as incorrect?
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 21, 2018 19:29:50 GMT -5
Since we started looking at this about a month ago, only 1 SoCon Team has remained in complete control of their own destiny at all times - YOUR MERCER BEARS!
Before Saturday's games, only ETSU and Mercer had full control over their SoCon Championship AND Playoff autobid destinies. With Wofford's win over ETSU, Furman's loss to Samford, and Mercer's win over WCU, we still have 2 Teams that have full control over their own SoCon Championship AND Playoff autobid destinies, but one of those 2 has changed.
Mercer continues to own their own path, but now Wofford also does, while ETSU does not. Big head-to-head match-up in SparkleCity this week between the only 2 currently SoCon 'Destiny-Holders.'
Actually, only Mercer controls their own destiny with regard to winning the SoCon Championship outright. Every other Team with a shot at winning the Conference needs 'help' to win it outright. Mercer 'only' has to win their own games.
CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINIES
* Mercer - 3-1 - If they beat Wofford, ETSU, Chatt, AND Furman = 7-1 - Outright Champs + Autobid
* Wofford - 4-1 - If they beat Mercer, Samford, AND WCU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/ETSU + Autobid. Outright Champ if ETSU loses 1+ SoCon game
STRAIGHTFORWARD PATH, BUT NEED 1 OTHER TEAM TO LOSE
* ETSU - 4-1 - If they beat WCU, Mercer, AND Samford = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/Wofford, need Wofford to lose 1+ SoCon game to get Autobid
COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING 2 or 3 OTHER TEAMS
* Chattanooga - 3-2 - If they beat VMI, Furman, AND Mercer = 6-2 - Would need Wofford AND ETSU to lose 2+ SoCon games to get Autobid
* Samford - 3-2 - If they beat Wofford, The Citadel, AND ETSU = 6-2 - Would need Mercer to lose 2+ SoCon games AND would need Chattanooga to lose 1+ to get Autobid
* Furman - 2-2 - If they beat The Citadel, Chattanooga, VMI, AND Mercer = 6-2 - Would need Wofford AND Samford to lose 1+ SoCon game (at least 1 of the will lose another SoCon game as they still have to play each other) AND would need ETSU to lose 2+ SoCon games to get Autobid
EXTREMELY COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING MULTIPLE TEAMS
* The Citadel - 2-3 - If they beat Furman, WCU, AND Samford = 5-3 - Would need Mercer to beat ETSU AND Wofford AND lose to Chatt AND Furman AND would need Wofford to also lose to Samford AND WCU AND would need ETSU to also lose to WCU AND Samford AND would need Chatt to lose to VMI AND Furman.
NO PATH
* WCU 1-4 - I couldn't cipher out a path for WCU to win the SoCon AND get the autobid. There may be one, but I am not Stephen Hawking.
* VMI - 0-6 - Cannot win SoCon nor get Autobid
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 21, 2018 19:51:56 GMT -5
Here's an interesting question?
If we assume Mercer's loss to The Citadel was an anomaly...
Has Mercer only beaten the "Bottom Teams" + Samford (a "Top Team")?
OR
Are the other "Top Teams" only "Top Teams" because they haven't had an opportunity to lose to Mercer yet?
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 222
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Post by ursus on Oct 21, 2018 20:32:31 GMT -5
I think we've mostly beaten the bottom teams. Samford is probably an average team and even that win was pretty close. There seems to be a lot of parity up to this point so I'm not sure anyone is that great. Massey composite has us below Furman, Samford, ETSU, Chatt and Wofford. I think that's probably accurate with Riddle going down although if Kaelan can keep the composure he had this weekend then it's possible for us to win out.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 27, 2018 21:06:06 GMT -5
The 6-2 possibilities make it challenging to suss this all out. What I do know is that Mercer Fans REALLY want Samford to beat Wofford AND ETSU to keep Samford in that 6-2 'mix' - GO BULLDOGS!!!
And...I think Mercer Fans want Chatt to lose a lot so that Samford's loss to Chatt doesn't knock Samford out of the 3-way comparison of next higher Teams doesn't knock Samford out 1st. And, Mercer Fans want Furman to win more so that Wofford's loss to them knocks them out of the 3-way...so that Mercer's win over Samford will 'prevail.'
Make sense?
Upon further review - I think Mercer still has 2 paths to the Autobid. Both require winning out...of course. Woffy needs to lose to Samford AND to WCU (not likely)...the other path is more complicated, but more likely. Sammy beats Woffy and wins out....Woffy beats WCU...MU, WC, and SU all tied at 6-2. All beat each other round-robin style - goes to next one - which would be ETSU and FU tied at 5-3 (most likely)...ETSU beat FU, so they would be 'up' 1st - All 3 tied would have beaten ETSU - so down to FU...Woffy lost to FU, but MU and SU would have beaten them. So Woffy drops out and MU beat SU, so MU gets autobid. IF Mercer can win out, this scenario is not that unlikely.
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Post by FUBeAR on Nov 5, 2018 21:09:58 GMT -5
Welp, the SoCon race cleared up a good bit last Saturday, but, unfortunately, that clearing up eliminated your Mercer Bears from contention for the SoCon title and, almost certainly, from any chance at making the Playoffs this season.  This coming week's opponent, Chattanooga, was also eliminated from the title chase, but maintains a slim hope at making the Playoffs. Just by beating Mercer, Chatt could be considered for the Playoffs (@ 7-4). If the Mocs can beat Mercer AND upset FBS South Carolina, they would, almost surely be in, with an 8-3 record AND an FBS win over a P5 Team, even while finishing as low as 5th in the SoCon...and with as many as 3 of the SoCon Teams ahead of them not receiving a Playoff bid. So, besides being Sr. Day in Finley Stadium, the Moc still have, potentially, A LOT for which to play. Conference games definitely matter, but so do Out-of-Conference ones! That said, Mercer, by beating Chattanooga AND Furman, at 5-3, could still finish tied for 2nd Place in the SoCon. That tie could be a 2-way tie with Wofford, a 3-way tie with Wofford AND Fuman OR Samford, or a 4-way tie with Wofford, Furman, AND Samford. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Nov 11, 2018 3:55:57 GMT -5
Only 2 SoCon games remain to be played this season (Furman @ Mercer & Samford @ ETSU), so there are only 4 different SoCon Finish Scenarios... Scenario #1 - If ETSU beats Samford AND Furman beats Mercer...| Position | Team | Wins | Losses | | 1 | ETSU | 7 | 1 | | 2* | Furman | 6 | 2 | | 3* | Wofford | 6 | 2 | | 4** | Chatt | 4 | 4 | | 5-6** | Mercer | 4 | 4 | | 5-6** | The Citadel | 4 | 4 | | 7** | Samford | 4 | 4 | | 8 | WCU | 1 | 7 | | 9 | VMI | 0 | 8 |
I have applied the SoCon Tiebreaking Procedures used to determine the Autobid to ties in Conference Standings to 'force rank' each Team. For example, in the scenario above, Furman & Wofford are tied at 6-2. Furman is #2 & Wofford #3 because Furman beat Wofford. Also, Chatt, Mercer, The Citadel, and Samford are all tied at 4-4. Samford is 0-3 vs. the tied Teams and the other 3 Teams are all 2-1 vs. the tied Teams. So, Samford 'falls out' of the tie-breaker and takes the #7 slot. The remaining tied Teams have all beaten the Teams that finished lower, so the next Tiebreaker, points surrendered in SoCon competition. Chatt gave up 148 and has completed their SoCon games giving up fewer points than CIT (225), who has also completed their schedule AND Mercer (218). So Chatt is #4. If Mercer gives up 0-6 points to Furman, they will be #5 and CIT #6. If they give up 8 or more, CIT will be #5 and Mercer #6. If they give up 7, a drawing will be held by FUBeAR to determine the #5 slot. That has been done proactively and Mercer won. Sorry bellhops. Better luck next time. (See Scenario #2 for why there was a 'drawing.') Scenario #2 - If Samford beats ETSU AND Furman beats Mercer...
| Position | Team | Wins | Losses | | 1-3* | Furman | 6 | 2 | | 1-2* | Wofford | 6 | 2 | | 2-3* | ETSU | 6 | 2 | | 4 | Samford | 5 | 3 | | 5** | Chatt | 4 | 4 | | 6** | Mercer | 4 | 4 | | 7** | The Citadel | 4 | 4 | | 8 | WCU | 1 | 7 | | 9 | VMI | 0 | 8 |
In this scenario, the order of finish cannot be determined until the number of points that Mercer scores on Furman AND Samford scores on ETSU are known. We do know that ETSU has surrendered 179 points and Wofford, who has no more SoCon games, has surrendered 175. So ETSU cannot finish 1st and Wofford cannot finish 3rd. Furman has surrendered 159 points, so if Mercer scores 0-15 points, Furman would finish 1st. If Mercer scores 16 points, the tiebreaker is a drawing by the SoCon office. If Mercer scores 17 or more points, Furman cannot finish 1st. In the event Mercer scores 17 or more points, if the difference in Mercer's points scored and Samford's points scored is 0-19, then Furman would finish #2 and ETSU #3. If that difference is 21 or more, then ETSU would finish #2 and Furman would be #3. If that difference is 20 points, the tiebreaker is a drawing by FUBeAR, which has already been proactively held and Furman won. Sorry Bucs. Better luck next time. Scenario #3 - If Samford beats ETSU AND Mercer beats Furman| Position | Team | Wins | Losses | | 1* | Wofford | 6 | 2 | | 2* | ETSU | 6 | 2 | | 3** | Mercer | 5 | 3 | | 4** | Samford | 5 | 3 | | 5** | Furman | 5 | 3 | | 6*** | Chatt | 4 | 4 | | 7*** | The Citadel | 4 | 4 | | 8 | WCU | 1 | 7 | | 9 | VMI | 0 | 8 |
| Position | Team | Wins | Losses | | 1 | ETSU | 7 | 1 | | 2 | Wofford | 6 | 2 | | 3* | Mercer | 5 | 3 | | 4* | Furman | 5 | 3 | | 5** | Chatt | 4 | 4 | | 6** | The Citadel | 4 | 4 | | 7** | Samford | 4 | 4 | | 8 | WCU | 1 | 7 | | 9 | VMI | 0 | 8 |
So...Mercer finishes 3rd in the SoCon if the Bears beat Furman...and 5th or 6th if they don't. Some would call the former "tied for 3rd" and the latter "tied for 4th or 5th." but FUBeAR believes in determining a definitive order. |
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