ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 221
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Samford
Nov 6, 2023 11:05:33 GMT -5
Post by ursus on Nov 6, 2023 11:05:33 GMT -5
Last game of the season and need a win to get in the playoffs.
It's déjà vu all over again.
The difference this time is the game is at home, on senior night and homecoming.
Major going concern is still the offenses ability to sustain a drive and not put the defense in hard spots.
The defense has been playing well, but could help themselves some by being able to get off the field without having to force a turnover.
It will most likely be a close game, but hopefully being at home gives us the edge.
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Samford
Nov 6, 2023 13:30:47 GMT -5
Post by BearDownMU on Nov 6, 2023 13:30:47 GMT -5
We've had 12 turnovers in the last 3 games and I think 20 in the last 6? Definitely need to keep that trend up. Agree the offense needs more consistency. They will obviously throw it 40-50 times and they are running pretty much 80-90 plays every week. I would assume we are going to try and keep possessions down, but to the earlier comment. We have to be able to move the ball. No idea what their defense is going to do. The last 2 years there have been 2500 yards of offense between the 2 teams. I would imagine we don't want them peeling off 500-600 yards of offense. Funman held them to around 315.
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Post by mubears2005 on Nov 7, 2023 9:11:09 GMT -5
Win and make the playoffs? Is that even a possibility?? Chatt is idle, Furman and Western are playing the worst schools in the league, and all 3 sit ahead of us. The SOCON isn't a 4-bid league so I'd love to hear the rationale behind this one.
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ursus
Spires Bear
Posts: 221
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Samford
Nov 7, 2023 10:30:46 GMT -5
Post by ursus on Nov 7, 2023 10:30:46 GMT -5
Win and make the playoffs? Is that even a possibility?? Chatt is idle, Furman and Western are playing the worst schools in the league, and all 3 sit ahead of us. The SOCON isn't a 4-bid league so I'd love to hear the rationale behind this one. Yes it's a possibility. I would say 70ish percent likely. Always depends on how things break, but we would be 8-3 with a ranked win and only FCS losses to ranked teams. The SoCon could be a 4 bid league if Furman is 10-1, Western is 8-3, Mercer is 8-3 and Chatt at 7-4. |
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Post by BearDownMU on Nov 7, 2023 12:08:40 GMT -5
I think 8-3 is a lock for the playoffs. You get the nod over Western for beating them head to head and you get the nod over Chatt because they have a worse record and lost to a team we beat (North Alabama) even tho you lost the head to head. Under the above scenario, I think Furman, Mercer, and ECU are in and Chatt gets left out. To Ursus's point, at 8-3 our losses are to #2 ranked Furman, at the time a Top 10 WCU, and Ole Miss. Also, Samford is a lot better win right now than they were 5 weeks ago. They are going to be a tough out on Saturday and should be viewed as a good win if we can get it done.
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Samford
Nov 7, 2023 17:51:42 GMT -5
Post by FUBeAR on Nov 7, 2023 17:51:42 GMT -5
Win and make the playoffs? Is that even a possibility?? Chatt is idle, Furman and Western are playing the worst schools in the league, and all 3 sit ahead of us. The SOCON isn't a 4-bid league so I'd love to hear the rationale behind this one. WCU is NOT 'ahead' of Mercer. Mercer is 'ahead' of WCU. Mercer has a slight 'lead' in standings/record @ 7-3 / 5-2 for MU vs. 6-3 / 4-2 for WCU. And, Mercer is ahead of WCU with the Head-to-Head victory over the Catamounts. Chatt does have the Head-to-Head victory over Mercer...and... CURRENTLY...a very slight lead over Mercer in overall standings/record @ 7-3 / 5-2 for MU vs. 7-3 / 6-2...BUT assuming Mercer beats Samford (which is the premise of all of this) AND Chatt loses to Alabama (as expected), then the overall records will be: * Mercer 8-3 / 6-2 * Chatt 7-4 / 6-2 ...and records vs. FCS (which is very important)... * Mercer 8-2 * Chatt 7-3 with their 'extra' FCS loss coming to a Team that Mercer beat - North Alabama So...unless Chatt beats Alabama, Mercer will be 'ahead' of Chatt in Overall Record, Record vs. FCS, and Record vs. a common OOC Opponent (UNA) AND vs. common SoCon Opponents (Mercer 6-1 and Chatt 5-2) OR they may view this as Record vs. Ranked or (Potential) Playoff Teams (WCU). These things probably, though not definitively, put Mercer 'ahead' of Chatt. So...Let's play the "Who's In Today" game using this weeks STATS Poll, which is part of the Committee's process... RANKING SCHOOL RECORD POINTS PREV
1 South Dakota State (56) 9-0 1,400 1 - MVFC 1 - AutoBid 12 Furman 8-1 1,298 2 - SoCon 1 - AutoBid 23 Montana 8-1 1,279 4 - Big Sky 1 - AutoBid 34 Idaho 7-2 1,265 3 - Big Sky 2 - At-Large 45 Montana State 7-2 1,190 6 - Big Sky 3 - At-Large 56 South Dakota 7-2 1,110 9 - MVFC 2 - At-Large 67 North Carolina Central 8-1 907 12 - CELEBRATION BOWL PARTICIPANT 8 Delaware 7-2 870 5 - CAA 1 - AutoBid 79 Sacramento State 6-3 857 7 - Big Sky 4 - At-Large 810 North Dakota 6-3 812 13 - MVFC 3 - At-Large 911 Southern Illinois 6-3 730 10 - MVFC 4 - At-Large 1012 North Dakota State 6-3 655 11 - MVFC 5 - At-Large 11T-13 Florida A&M 8-1 654 15 - CELEBRATION BOWL PARTICIPANT T-13 Villanova 7-2 654 17 - CAA 2 - At-Large 1215 Northern Iowa 6-3 615 18 - MVFC - 6 - At-Large 1316 UIW 7-2 566 8 - Southland 1 - AutoBid 14 (even though Nicholls will probably get the AutoBid - so this could be a 'problem' ...and in this scenario, UIW getting an At-Large would knock Mercer out of the Playoffs - don't think that will happen IRL, but that's what could be an 'outcome' of the 'game' we are playing today) 17 Western Carolina 6-3 517 16 - SoCon 2 - At-Large 1518 UAlbany 7-3 504 23 - CAA 3 - At-Large 1619 Chattanooga 7-3 490 14 - SoCon 3 - At-Large 1720 Austin Peay 7-2 477 19 - UAC 1 - AutoBid 1821 UT Martin 7-2 348 21 - Big South/OVC 1 - AutoBid 1922 Youngstown State 6-3 342 22 - MVFC 7 - At-Large 2023 Mercer 7-3 183 25 - SoCon 4 - At-Large 2124 Harvard 7-1 112 NR - DO NOT PARTICIPATE 25 Lafayette 7-2 90 20 - Patriot League 1 - AutoBid 2226 Central Arkansas 75 27 Tarleton State 47 28 Holy Cross 43 29 Elon 41 30 Richmond 23 31 Nicholls 15 32 William & Mary 13 33 Tennessee State 9 Duquesne? - NEC 1 - Autobid 23Davidson or Drake? - PFL 1 - AutoBid 24MVFC - 7 Teams Big Sky - 4 Teams SoCon - 4 Teams CAA - 3 Teams All other Playoff Conferences - AutoBid for Champions only |
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Post by BearDownMU on Nov 12, 2023 12:26:37 GMT -5
What a win. What a year. I'm exhausted.
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Samford
Nov 12, 2023 17:26:45 GMT -5
via mobile
FUBeAR likes this
Post by sowegabear on Nov 12, 2023 17:26:45 GMT -5
One FCS site I was looking at projects Mercer to be in and hosting a playoff game in round 1. That would be awesome!!
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Samford
Nov 12, 2023 20:11:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by mumd on Nov 12, 2023 20:11:13 GMT -5
I think 8-3 is a lock for the playoffs. You get the nod over Western for beating them head to head and you get the nod over Chatt because they have a worse record and lost to a team we beat (North Alabama) even tho you lost the head to head. Under the above scenario, I think Furman, Mercer, and ECU are in and Chatt gets left out. To Ursus's point, at 8-3 our losses are to #2 ranked Furman, at the time a Top 10 WCU, and Ole Miss. Also, Samford is a lot better win right now than they were 5 weeks ago. They are going to be a tough out on Saturday and should be viewed as a good win if we can get it done. This needs a little correction. Mercer’s losses are to Ole Miss, #2 Furman, and a ranked Chattanooga team. Mercer’s best win is over ranked WCU. |
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