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Post by FUBeAR on Jun 30, 2015 1:13:20 GMT -5
Not much respect from the NC mountains for the Bears. Interesting because in 2014 Mercer (with only 1 scholarship class) goes into Chattanooga and takes UTC down to the wire (or fingertips from a tie or going for two for the win). WCU, on the other hand, hosts UTC and loses 51-0. But maybe it was a close 51-0 so let's look at the head-to-head matchup against the #2 team in the SoCon - Samford. Again, Mercer plays Samford to within 3 points in Birmingham in a game the Bears had a legit chance to win. However, WCU goes into Birmingham and loses 34-20 and was down 28-0 late in the second quarter. Another pitiful performance in a key SoCon game. Maybe it was just a bone in their throat from the pregame meal that caused all that choking. So while I'm not saying that Mercer is better than WCU (yet), I do think that it is a little early in the Catamount rebuilding (or building) program for them to get all high and mighty. It has been a long, painful road for WCU and it looks like they are turning a corner. Good for them. I hope they continue to improve. But they have not quite yet earned the insulting badge of honor stage. I hear ya 38! Very easy for those Catamounts to talk about their 2 score DOMINATION of the Bears...overlooking the 'gift' Fumble Return TD they rec'd on the 1st series, their score on a trick play (yes - it was a legal play and the Bears like to trick'em too, but when you are DOMINANT...well, you don't need trick plays), 2 CRITICAL False Starts (1 highly questionable - have they seen The Citadel's OL jump early on almost every play?) and a Bears KOR for a TD that was called back (rightfully so, dangit!). Yep...the Cats beat the Bears on that Saturday, but I failed to see the DOMINATION during the game and in the stats... WCU STAT MERCER DIFFERENCE 17 FIRST DOWNS 20 +3 Bears 7 Passing 8 +1 Bears 9 Rushing 10 +1 Bears 1 Penalty 2 +1 Bears 47% (7 of 15) THIRD DOWN EFFICIENCY 43% (6 of 14) +4% Cats 100% (1 of 1) FOURTH DOWN EFFICIENCY 0% (0 of 1) +1 Cats 406 TOTAL OFFENSE 400 +6 yards Cats 65 Total Offensive Plays 65 TIED 6.2 Average gain per play 6.2 TIED 233 NET YARDS PASSING 199 +34 yards Cats 14-19 Completions-Attempts 13-25 +22% Cats (that's a pretty important stat, unfortunately) 12.3 Net yards per pass play 8.0 +4.3 yards Cats 1-2 Sacked: Number-Yards 3-18 +2 Sacks & +16 yards Cats 0 Had intercepted 1 +1 Cats 173 NET YARDS RUSHING 201 +28 yards Bears 46 Rushing Attempts 40 +6 Cats 3.8 Average gain per rush 5.0 +1.2 Yards per rush (also an important stat...just not important enough on this day) 6-224 PUNTS: Number-Yards 3-112 +3 Bears 37.3 Average 37.3 TIED 98 TOTAL RETURN YARDS 89 +9 Cats 2-3 Punt Returns: Number-Yards 0 0 +2 Returns +3 Yards Cats 5-96 Kickoff Returns: Number-Yards 6-89 +5.4 Yards/KOR Cats (Big change here if Bears don't clip FAR away from the ball...dangit!) 1- -1 Interception Returns: Number-Yards 0 0 +1 Cats 6-74 PENALTIES: Number-Yards 8-62 +2 Cats +12 Yards Bears 2-1 FUMBLES: Number-Lost 2-2 +1 Cats (a BIG, BIG, BIG 1) 3-18 SACKS: Number-Yards 1-2 See above 1--1 INTERCEPTIONS: Number-Yards 0 0 See above 31:39 TIME OF POSSESSION 28:21 +3:08 Cats Wofford can talk BIG about their win over the Bears, cuz they whipped us and called us "Louisa" that day...I just don't understand how any other SoCon team and/or their fanbase can be chalking up their 2015 game vs. Mercer as an 'auto-victory,' but I see 'em all doin' it (except VMI...and, interestingly, not too many from Chatt). OK...maybe they know more than we do 38...maybe they do. Oh yeah, and can we get a 'Hands to the Face' call on WCU's DL just once...since the DT's do it EVERY play & the DE's quite often...just once; please just call it 1 time...just so we now the Umpires KNOW the rule. I really shouldn't joke about that because someone is going to get seriously injured since the Refs let it go all of 2014 (yes, I watched ALL of their SoCon games). I just hope that WHEN (unfortunately, not "if") it happens, that the injured OLman/TE is not one of our Bears. They do have the same DL Coaches, so I'm assuming they will be teaching that same technique in 2015. Other than the risk of serious permanent injury factor, I really don't blame them. If the ref's are gonna let 'em get away with it, well...all's fair til the flag is thrown, I guess. Selah... |
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Post by jackal on Jun 30, 2015 5:46:08 GMT -5
I don't think any game is an "automatic" victory over anyone. I watched the Mercer/WCU game, and we can quibble over the term "domination," but a 22 point lead in the fourth quarter is at least "comfortable." Of course, the game is not over until the final whistle blows.
Mercer did a marvelous job last season at making strong pushes late in games to make things more uncomfortable. They did it at least against Furman, Samford, UTC, and WCU. I think in each of those games (with the exception of WCU), Mercer turned a two score 4th quarter deficit into a one score final.
The great thing about the preseason is that everyone's got a glorified version of what they could be. Mercer, like the rest of the SoCon, will have their chance to prove their mettle soon enough. At that time, the pre-season talk will be put into a little more context.
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Post by WCU visitor on Jun 30, 2015 8:26:45 GMT -5
Not much respect from the NC mountains for the Bears. Interesting because in 2014 Mercer (with only 1 scholarship class) goes into Chattanooga and takes UTC down to the wire (or fingertips from a tie or going for two for the win). WCU, on the other hand, hosts UTC and loses 51-0. But maybe it was a close 51-0 so let's look at the head-to-head matchup against the #2 team in the SoCon - Samford. Again, Mercer plays Samford to within 3 points in Birmingham in a game the Bears had a legit chance to win. However, WCU goes into Birmingham and loses 34-20 and was down 28-0 late in the second quarter. Another pitiful performance in a key SoCon game. Maybe it was just a bone in their throat from the pregame meal that caused all that choking. So while I'm not saying that Mercer is better than WCU (yet), I do think that it is a little early in the Catamount rebuilding (or building) program for them to get all high and mighty. It has been a long, painful road for WCU and it looks like they are turning a corner. Good for them. I hope they continue to improve. But they have not quite yet earned the insulting badge of honor stage. It seems that you forgot the most important game re: WCU for the Bears..... how MERCER did vs. the Cats. What caused the mighty Bears to choke so badly at home against the Cats? |
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Post by WCUguest on Jun 30, 2015 8:44:11 GMT -5
I am obviously a WCU fan, but I would say Mercer gets a fair amount of praise on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi (and I generally read every post there). I often see comments about how the expectation from a number of Catamount fans is that Mercer will quickly rise up into the top half of the league because of your coach, your facilities, your money, and your location in talent-rich Georgia. I have seen a number of comments about your OOC schedule last year, but you guys are just getting started. WCU has been very bad at football for a number of years, and we are just now (hopefully) seeing a light at the end of the tunnel with new leadership across the board in the last couple of years (President, AD, and Coach). I attended the Mercer game this past year and was impressed with you guys, but I also believe the better team won on that day but in no way thought of it as domination due to most of the same things mentioned above. Somebody pointed to WCU's games against Samford and UTC, but I think most people realize in today's football it doesn't do a whole lot of good pointing to those kinds of things (if UTC is 50+ points better than WCU and only a TD better than Mercer, how did WCU beat Mercer???).
Anyway, your board and I am not trying to make waves. I think the consensus is that Mercer will be good pretty quick, but most people will want to see you guys get into a more traditional schedule with a full slate of FCS and FBS games before passing judgement. You do that this year and next. Like Jackal said, everybody has a glorified version of the upcoming season. But I am a realist, and probably a little wary based on Western's past. I think WCU has one of the best teams we have had in a long time, with all 11 starters back on Offense and 9 on Defense for a team that tied Samford for #2 in the final standings. But when I look at our schedule I am still only predicting a 6-5 or at best a 7-4 record. You guys may become world beaters, but I can tell you as a long-time FCS fan that winning 7+ games at our level should always be considered a good season.
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Post by bear38 on Jun 30, 2015 10:57:55 GMT -5
I am obviously a WCU fan, but I would say Mercer gets a fair amount of praise on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi (and I generally read every post there). I often see comments about how the expectation from a number of Catamount fans is that Mercer will quickly rise up into the top half of the league because of your coach, your facilities, your money, and your location in talent-rich Georgia. I have seen a number of comments about your OOC schedule last year, but you guys are just getting started. WCU has been very bad at football for a number of years, and we are just now (hopefully) seeing a light at the end of the tunnel with new leadership across the board in the last couple of years (President, AD, and Coach). I attended the Mercer game this past year and was impressed with you guys, but I also believe the better team won on that day but in no way thought of it as domination due to most of the same things mentioned above. Somebody pointed to WCU's games against Samford and UTC, but I think most people realize in today's football it doesn't do a whole lot of good pointing to those kinds of things (if UTC is 50+ points better than WCU and only a TD better than Mercer, how did WCU beat Mercer???). Anyway, your board and I am not trying to make waves. I think the consensus is that Mercer will be good pretty quick, but most people will want to see you guys get into a more traditional schedule with a full slate of FCS and FBS games before passing judgement. You do that this year and next. Like Jackal said, everybody has a glorified version of the upcoming season. But I am a realist, and probably a little wary based on Western's past. I think WCU has one of the best teams we have had in a long time, with all 11 starters back on Offense and 9 on Defense for a team that tied Samford for #2 in the final standings. But when I look at our schedule I am still only predicting a 6-5 or at best a 7-4 record. You guys may become world beaters, but I can tell you as a long-time FCS fan that winning 7+ games at our level should always be considered a good season. Well I clearly don't get on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi and have no idea what is posted there. My posts are responding to the Catamount prediction of a 2-9 Mercer outcome in 2015. I think everyone would agree that a 2-9 prediction for the Bears shows very little to no respect to what Mercer has accomplished in two seasons of football. A 2-9 2015 outcome would mean that the Bears would be worse in 2015 than they were in 2014. Maybe it could happened, but I think that prediction is more of a show of ignorance and laziness than of someone who understands the game or maybe just a homer throwing out wishes. |
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Post by bear38 on Jun 30, 2015 11:36:23 GMT -5
Not much respect from the NC mountains for the Bears. Interesting because in 2014 Mercer (with only 1 scholarship class) goes into Chattanooga and takes UTC down to the wire (or fingertips from a tie or going for two for the win). WCU, on the other hand, hosts UTC and loses 51-0. But maybe it was a close 51-0 so let's look at the head-to-head matchup against the #2 team in the SoCon - Samford. Again, Mercer plays Samford to within 3 points in Birmingham in a game the Bears had a legit chance to win. However, WCU goes into Birmingham and loses 34-20 and was down 28-0 late in the second quarter. Another pitiful performance in a key SoCon game. Maybe it was just a bone in their throat from the pregame meal that caused all that choking. So while I'm not saying that Mercer is better than WCU (yet), I do think that it is a little early in the Catamount rebuilding (or building) program for them to get all high and mighty. It has been a long, painful road for WCU and it looks like they are turning a corner. Good for them. I hope they continue to improve. But they have not quite yet earned the insulting badge of honor stage. It seems that you forgot the most important game re: WCU for the Bears..... how MERCER did vs. the Cats. What caused the mighty Bears to choke so badly at home against the Cats? Hmmm. I wouldn't call the mighty Bears performance against WCU as a "bad choke". It is not like it was 51-0. Now that is a "bad choke"! The mighty Bears had more first downs than WCU and the offensives were even. The game came down to a few key plays that went in WCU's favor. Congrats for winning and making the plays. As I said previously WCU was the better team. Given the history of WCU football and Mercer's success in only two years, I'm just not seeing where the Catamounts get off on copping this attitude of theirs. |
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Post by jackal on Jun 30, 2015 12:06:14 GMT -5
I am obviously a WCU fan, but I would say Mercer gets a fair amount of praise on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi (and I generally read every post there). I often see comments about how the expectation from a number of Catamount fans is that Mercer will quickly rise up into the top half of the league because of your coach, your facilities, your money, and your location in talent-rich Georgia. I have seen a number of comments about your OOC schedule last year, but you guys are just getting started. WCU has been very bad at football for a number of years, and we are just now (hopefully) seeing a light at the end of the tunnel with new leadership across the board in the last couple of years (President, AD, and Coach). I attended the Mercer game this past year and was impressed with you guys, but I also believe the better team won on that day but in no way thought of it as domination due to most of the same things mentioned above. Somebody pointed to WCU's games against Samford and UTC, but I think most people realize in today's football it doesn't do a whole lot of good pointing to those kinds of things (if UTC is 50+ points better than WCU and only a TD better than Mercer, how did WCU beat Mercer???). Anyway, your board and I am not trying to make waves. I think the consensus is that Mercer will be good pretty quick, but most people will want to see you guys get into a more traditional schedule with a full slate of FCS and FBS games before passing judgement. You do that this year and next. Like Jackal said, everybody has a glorified version of the upcoming season. But I am a realist, and probably a little wary based on Western's past. I think WCU has one of the best teams we have had in a long time, with all 11 starters back on Offense and 9 on Defense for a team that tied Samford for #2 in the final standings. But when I look at our schedule I am still only predicting a 6-5 or at best a 7-4 record. You guys may become world beaters, but I can tell you as a long-time FCS fan that winning 7+ games at our level should always be considered a good season. Well I clearly don't get on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi and have no idea what is posted there. My posts are responding to the Catamount prediction of a 2-9 Mercer outcome in 2015. I think everyone would agree that a 2-9 prediction for the Bears shows very little to no respect to what Mercer has accomplished in two seasons of football. A 2-9 2015 outcome would mean that the Bears would be worse in 2015 than they were in 2014. Maybe it could happened, but I think that prediction is more of a show of ignorance and laziness than of someone who understands the game or maybe just a homer throwing out wishes. Furman was predicted to compete for the conference title, had overwhelming injuries, and ended up 3-8. Preseason predictions don't matter. Two wins is obviously low. Just realistically you can get to three wins just by assuming Mercer beats the same three teams they beat last year. Even if you assume VMI will be a tougher team (I think they will be), ETSU shouldn't be very good. I imagine 3 wins is the lowest reasonable suggestion for Mercer. There are at least four games on the schedule (VMI, Stetson, Austin Peay, and ETSU) where Mercer will be favored. Outside of the VMI game, which I think could be close again, the remaining three games should be "heavily favored." |
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Post by FUBeAR on Jun 30, 2015 14:16:23 GMT -5
Well I clearly don't get on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi and have no idea what is posted there. My posts are responding to the Catamount prediction of a 2-9 Mercer outcome in 2015. I think everyone would agree that a 2-9 prediction for the Bears shows very little to no respect to what Mercer has accomplished in two seasons of football. A 2-9 2015 outcome would mean that the Bears would be worse in 2015 than they were in 2014. Maybe it could happened, but I think that prediction is more of a show of ignorance and laziness than of someone who understands the game or maybe just a homer throwing out wishes. Furman was predicted to compete for the conference title, had overwhelming injuries, and ended up 3-8. Preseason predictions don't matter. Two wins is obviously low. Just realistically you can get to three wins just by assuming Mercer beats the same three teams they beat last year. Even if you assume VMI will be a tougher team (I think they will be), ETSU shouldn't be very good. I imagine 3 wins is the lowest reasonable suggestion for Mercer. There are at least four games on the schedule (VMI, Stetson, Austin Peay, and ETSU) where Mercer will be favored. Outside of the VMI game, which I think could be close again, the remaining three games should be "heavily favored." While I mostly agree with you here, I do have some other thoughts. I think VMI will be better because of their new Head Coach & a new system that takes advantage of the talent they have in place. I also think APSU will be much better. They had PLENTY of athletes on the field last year and they showed they knew how to hang in some games with tough teams (their early game meltdown vs. Mercer notwithstanding), but they didn't know how to hang on and win - they shot off both of their feet in most of their games. If they can stop doing that, they do have talent. Stetson showed big improvement last year (their early game meltdown vs. Mercer notwithstanding) and I've seen them picked as high as 4th in the PFL this season. ETSU just MAY surprise you and others - I think there was a team in Macon in 2013 that was just starting out that every PFL team penciled in as a win that year - That team finished 10-2 as y'all may recall. The 'start-your-program' code has been cracked by Coastal Carolina & Old Dominion (both with assistance from FU Coaching legend, Dick Sheridan) and passed down. Mercer followed that prescription and I believe ETSU has as well. Now - all of that said, I think you got to the heart of 38's point. This WCU 'writer' is picking Mercer to only win 2 games. So, I think, one can reasonably assume he means Stetson (non-scholarship PFL) and ETSU (1st year program)...So, he's picking a team that went to the wire with last year's DOMINANT SoCon Champion, the previous year's 2 Co-Champions, and an always-tough Citadel team...to lose 'em all - All SoCon games and both OOC games with established, 'real' teams (APSU & TnTech). Let's think about something. Mercer had 0 scholarship players on the field in 2013 and they had about 30 or so on the field in 2014...and they'll have over 50 (let's call it 60 for the sake of EASY math - see below) on the field in 2015. That means they went from an infinite increase in scholarship players in 2014 to doubling their scholarship players for this year. Did any other SoCon school double to 126 scholarships this year? I know it's hard for FR to make an impact, but I think Alex Lakes, Chandler Curtis, Austin Barrett, and Kyle Williams showed what Mercer can do with "Freshies" last year. What will another 4 like those mean for the Bears in 2015? There ARE 4 guys in this incoming class who may have that kind of impact in 2015. I won't name them, but I know who I have in mind....oh, there's also the 6 scholarship redshirts that didn't see the field last year. I know other schools redshirted players also, but I bet they, in large measure had other scholarship players on the field while Mercer had walk-on's or former walk-on's holding down those spots in 2014.... Let's do a math exercise (I hate math BTW)....Let's assign a point value to Scholarship Players and to Walk-on Players, in general. I don't know the 'right' amount, but let's say Scholarship Players are worth 100 points and Walk-On Players are worth 70...and let's assume 100 players in each program with full scholarships (63) for all 'other' SoCon teams (I know that's not exactly right, but it's close). So, in 2015, all SoCon Teams had (63 x 100) + (37 x 70) = 8,890 General Player Values. The Bears in 2013 were worth (100 x 70) = 7,000. In 2014, they were worth (30 x 100) + (70 x 70) = 7,900. So other SoCon schools were 12.53% 'better' than Mercer in 2014. But, in 2015, the Bears will be 'worth' (60 x 100) + (40 x 70) = 8,800. That means SoCon schools will only be 'worth' 1.02% more than the Bears. Now, that 1.02% may mean the Bears lose 'em all in 2015 as this 'writer' projects, but I think not ignoring that on a %-basis, the Bears stood to gain more than their SoCon brethren in the off-season, perhaps, points to a different outcome. Bottom line - take away the harder to assess variances of familiarity with a system or injuries or new uniform sponsors or any of that junk and Mercer, logically, should show more improvement in 2015 over the prior year than the other SoCon schools.....SHOULD being the important word in that sentence. Hence - 38 has a definite reason to 'call out' this 'writer' for his 'dis' of the Bears. Certainly entitled to his opinion and the games will determine if he's right...but I (and, apparently, 38) find it hard to fathom what basis he has for his projection...hence...inane drivel. |
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Post by bear38 on Jun 30, 2015 14:56:24 GMT -5
Well I clearly don't get on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi and have no idea what is posted there. My posts are responding to the Catamount prediction of a 2-9 Mercer outcome in 2015. I think everyone would agree that a 2-9 prediction for the Bears shows very little to no respect to what Mercer has accomplished in two seasons of football. A 2-9 2015 outcome would mean that the Bears would be worse in 2015 than they were in 2014. Maybe it could happened, but I think that prediction is more of a show of ignorance and laziness than of someone who understands the game or maybe just a homer throwing out wishes. Furman was predicted to compete for the conference title, had overwhelming injuries, and ended up 3-8. Preseason predictions don't matter. Two wins is obviously low. Just realistically you can get to three wins just by assuming Mercer beats the same three teams they beat last year. Even if you assume VMI will be a tougher team (I think they will be), ETSU shouldn't be very good. I imagine 3 wins is the lowest reasonable suggestion for Mercer. There are at least four games on the schedule (VMI, Stetson, Austin Peay, and ETSU) where Mercer will be favored. Outside of the VMI game, which I think could be close again, the remaining three games should be "heavily favored." Agree that lots of "unknown and "unknowable" things can happen. Overwhelming injuries being one of those. Which does give some weight to your point that "preseason predictions don't matter". However, I do think that you can analyze where teams have been and make educated guesses (predictions?) of what they might do. Not a total waste of of thought and exercise (especially for those of us who are in football withdrawal .... like myself and a certain FUbEAR we all know and love?). Some of those guesses or predictions are better than others. The ones that are way high or way low, probably tell you more about the person making the prediction than it does about the prediction itself. |
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Post by jackal on Jun 30, 2015 15:33:16 GMT -5
Furman was predicted to compete for the conference title, had overwhelming injuries, and ended up 3-8. Preseason predictions don't matter. Two wins is obviously low. Just realistically you can get to three wins just by assuming Mercer beats the same three teams they beat last year. Even if you assume VMI will be a tougher team (I think they will be), ETSU shouldn't be very good. I imagine 3 wins is the lowest reasonable suggestion for Mercer. There are at least four games on the schedule (VMI, Stetson, Austin Peay, and ETSU) where Mercer will be favored. Outside of the VMI game, which I think could be close again, the remaining three games should be "heavily favored." Agree that lots of "unknown and "unknowable" things can happen. Overwhelming injuries being one of those. Which does give some weight to your point that "preseason predictions don't matter". However, I do think that you can analyze where teams have been and make educated guesses (predictions?) of what they might do. Not a total waste of of thought and exercise (especially for those of us who are in football withdrawal .... like myself and a certain FUbEAR we all know and love?). Some of those guesses or predictions are better than others. The ones that are way high or way low, probably tell you more about the person making the prediction than it does about the prediction itself. Sure, you can take an educated guess so long as there is a realistic basis. |
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Post by jackal on Jun 30, 2015 15:40:33 GMT -5
Furman was predicted to compete for the conference title, had overwhelming injuries, and ended up 3-8. Preseason predictions don't matter. Two wins is obviously low. Just realistically you can get to three wins just by assuming Mercer beats the same three teams they beat last year. Even if you assume VMI will be a tougher team (I think they will be), ETSU shouldn't be very good. I imagine 3 wins is the lowest reasonable suggestion for Mercer. There are at least four games on the schedule (VMI, Stetson, Austin Peay, and ETSU) where Mercer will be favored. Outside of the VMI game, which I think could be close again, the remaining three games should be "heavily favored." While I mostly agree with you here, I do have some other thoughts. I think VMI will be better because of their new Head Coach & a new system that takes advantage of the talent they have in place. I also think APSU will be much better. They had PLENTY of athletes on the field last year and they showed they knew how to hang in some games with tough teams (their early game meltdown vs. Mercer notwithstanding), but they didn't know how to hang on and win - they shot off both of their feet in most of their games. If they can stop doing that, they do have talent. Stetson showed big improvement last year (their early game meltdown vs. Mercer notwithstanding) and I've seen them picked as high as 4th in the PFL this season. ETSU just MAY surprise you and others - I think there was a team in Macon in 2013 that was just starting out that every PFL team penciled in as a win that year - That team finished 10-2 as y'all may recall. The 'start-your-program' code has been cracked by Coastal Carolina & Old Dominion (both with assistance from FU Coaching legend, Dick Sheridan) and passed down. Mercer followed that prescription and I believe ETSU has as well. Now - all of that said, I think you got to the heart of 38's point. This WCU 'writer' is picking Mercer to only win 2 games. So, I think, one can reasonably assume he means Stetson (non-scholarship PFL) and ETSU (1st year program)...So, he's picking a team that went to the wire with last year's DOMINANT SoCon Champion, the previous year's 2 Co-Champions, and an always-tough Citadel team...to lose 'em all - All SoCon games and both OOC games with established, 'real' teams (APSU & TnTech). Let's think about something. Mercer had 0 scholarship players on the field in 2013 and they had about 30 or so on the field in 2014...and they'll have over 50 (let's call it 60 for the sake of EASY math - see below) on the field in 2015. That means they went from an infinite increase in scholarship players in 2014 to doubling their scholarship players for this year. Did any other SoCon school double to 126 scholarships this year? I know it's hard for FR to make an impact, but I think Alex Lakes, Chandler Curtis, Austin Barrett, and Kyle Williams showed what Mercer can do with "Freshies" last year. What will another 4 like those mean for the Bears in 2015? There ARE 4 guys in this incoming class who may have that kind of impact in 2015. I won't name them, but I know who I have in mind....oh, there's also the 6 scholarship redshirts that didn't see the field last year. I know other schools redshirted players also, but I bet they, in large measure had other scholarship players on the field while Mercer had walk-on's or former walk-on's holding down those spots in 2014.... Let's do a math exercise (I hate math BTW)....Let's assign a point value to Scholarship Players and to Walk-on Players, in general. I don't know the 'right' amount, but let's say Scholarship Players are worth 100 points and Walk-On Players are worth 70...and let's assume 100 players in each program with full scholarships (63) for all 'other' SoCon teams (I know that's not exactly right, but it's close). So, in 2015, all SoCon Teams had (63 x 100) + (37 x 70) = 8,890 General Player Values. The Bears in 2013 were worth (100 x 70) = 7,000. In 2014, they were worth (30 x 100) + (70 x 70) = 7,900. So other SoCon schools were 12.53% 'better' than Mercer in 2014. But, in 2015, the Bears will be 'worth' (60 x 100) + (40 x 70) = 8,800. That means SoCon schools will only be 'worth' 1.02% more than the Bears. Now, that 1.02% may mean the Bears lose 'em all in 2015 as this 'writer' projects, but I think ignoring that on a %-basis, the Bears stood to gain more than their SoCon brethren in the off-season, perhaps, points to a different outcome. Bottom line - take away the harder to assess variances of familiarity with a system or injuries or new uniform sponsors or any of that junk and Mercer, logically, should show more improvement in 2015 over the prior year than the other SoCon schools.....SHOULD being the important word in that sentence. Hence - 38 has a definite reason to 'call out' this 'writer' for his 'dis' of the Bears. Certainly entitled to his opinion and the games will determine if he's right...but I (and, apparently, 38) find it hard to fathom what basis he has for his projection...hence...inane drivel. I cannot address your math, but there are a lot of factors in play. I think Mercer will be improved. I think the schedule adds some difficulty. You take away a home game and a couple of defacto "bye" weeks against bad teams, and add long stretches of conference games. My impression is that depth and conditioning are going to be tested this season like they might not have been the past few years. I also think you have to factor in the "knowledge" factor. SoCon teams played a Mercer program last year that really had no film against FCS-level competition. I imagine teams had to do a lot of guess work in their preparation (especially Furman). Everyone has now seen Mercer and have them on film playing teams at this level. No question the Bears turned a lot of heads last season, but I think teams are going to have a better idea of what Mercer is going to do out there and have had the off season to start preparing those game plans. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Jun 30, 2015 16:07:39 GMT -5
While I mostly agree with you here, I do have some other thoughts. I think VMI will be better because of their new Head Coach & a new system that takes advantage of the talent they have in place. I also think APSU will be much better. They had PLENTY of athletes on the field last year and they showed they knew how to hang in some games with tough teams (their early game meltdown vs. Mercer notwithstanding), but they didn't know how to hang on and win - they shot off both of their feet in most of their games. If they can stop doing that, they do have talent. Stetson showed big improvement last year (their early game meltdown vs. Mercer notwithstanding) and I've seen them picked as high as 4th in the PFL this season. ETSU just MAY surprise you and others - I think there was a team in Macon in 2013 that was just starting out that every PFL team penciled in as a win that year - That team finished 10-2 as y'all may recall. The 'start-your-program' code has been cracked by Coastal Carolina & Old Dominion (both with assistance from FU Coaching legend, Dick Sheridan) and passed down. Mercer followed that prescription and I believe ETSU has as well. Now - all of that said, I think you got to the heart of 38's point. This WCU 'writer' is picking Mercer to only win 2 games. So, I think, one can reasonably assume he means Stetson (non-scholarship PFL) and ETSU (1st year program)...So, he's picking a team that went to the wire with last year's DOMINANT SoCon Champion, the previous year's 2 Co-Champions, and an always-tough Citadel team...to lose 'em all - All SoCon games and both OOC games with established, 'real' teams (APSU & TnTech). Let's think about something. Mercer had 0 scholarship players on the field in 2013 and they had about 30 or so on the field in 2014...and they'll have over 50 (let's call it 60 for the sake of EASY math - see below) on the field in 2015. That means they went from an infinite increase in scholarship players in 2014 to doubling their scholarship players for this year. Did any other SoCon school double to 126 scholarships this year? I know it's hard for FR to make an impact, but I think Alex Lakes, Chandler Curtis, Austin Barrett, and Kyle Williams showed what Mercer can do with "Freshies" last year. What will another 4 like those mean for the Bears in 2015? There ARE 4 guys in this incoming class who may have that kind of impact in 2015. I won't name them, but I know who I have in mind....oh, there's also the 6 scholarship redshirts that didn't see the field last year. I know other schools redshirted players also, but I bet they, in large measure had other scholarship players on the field while Mercer had walk-on's or former walk-on's holding down those spots in 2014.... Let's do a math exercise (I hate math BTW)....Let's assign a point value to Scholarship Players and to Walk-on Players, in general. I don't know the 'right' amount, but let's say Scholarship Players are worth 100 points and Walk-On Players are worth 70...and let's assume 100 players in each program with full scholarships (63) for all 'other' SoCon teams (I know that's not exactly right, but it's close). So, in 2015, all SoCon Teams had (63 x 100) + (37 x 70) = 8,890 General Player Values. The Bears in 2013 were worth (100 x 70) = 7,000. In 2014, they were worth (30 x 100) + (70 x 70) = 7,900. So other SoCon schools were 12.53% 'better' than Mercer in 2014. But, in 2015, the Bears will be 'worth' (60 x 100) + (40 x 70) = 8,800. That means SoCon schools will only be 'worth' 1.02% more than the Bears. Now, that 1.02% may mean the Bears lose 'em all in 2015 as this 'writer' projects, but I think ignoring that on a %-basis, the Bears stood to gain more than their SoCon brethren in the off-season, perhaps, points to a different outcome. Bottom line - take away the harder to assess variances of familiarity with a system or injuries or new uniform sponsors or any of that junk and Mercer, logically, should show more improvement in 2015 over the prior year than the other SoCon schools.....SHOULD being the important word in that sentence. Hence - 38 has a definite reason to 'call out' this 'writer' for his 'dis' of the Bears. Certainly entitled to his opinion and the games will determine if he's right...but I (and, apparently, 38) find it hard to fathom what basis he has for his projection...hence...inane drivel. I cannot address your math, but there are a lot of factors in play. I think Mercer will be improved. I think the schedule adds some difficulty. You take away a home game and a couple of defacto "bye" weeks against bad teams, and add long stretches of conference games. My impression is that depth and conditioning are going to be tested this season like they might not have been the past few years. I also think you have to factor in the "knowledge" factor. SoCon teams played a Mercer program last year that really had no film against FCS-level competition. I imagine teams had to do a lot of guess work in their preparation (especially Furman). Everyone has now seen Mercer and have them on film playing teams at this level. No question the Bears turned a lot of heads last season, but I think teams are going to have a better idea of what Mercer is going to do out there and have had the off season to start preparing those game plans.
* Schedule Difficulty - with a well-coached team with experienced leaders (which the Bears have now), this is only a factor as it relates to depth. There ARE more injuries in hard-fought conference or OOC FCS games than in games against those 'bye' teams you mentioned...but, interestingly, more than vs. FBS money-games also (in general, in my experience). So...I'll give you a "Mostly True" on this one and it could be a Disadvantage for Mercer. * Depth - BIG, BIG, BIG factor. You are right on target with this one - Matters; matters A LOT...and if there's one area that the Bears have improved most in year over year, it's depth. So, you get a "TRUE" on this one BUT it's "WRONG" as it's actually an Advantage/Improvement for Mercer over where they were last year relative to other SoCon teams * Conditioning - Not an issue except for the 1st few games - speaking as a former player - I DIED in Aug/Early Sept and could play every play by Mid-Sept. If they ain't in shape when the season starts, they will be by the 3rd game. So "FALSE"* Knowledge - Not an issue. ALL SoCon Teams had all the film they wanted on Mercer last year and exactly the same amount of film that Mercer had on them - Speaking as a Football Coach - who they were playing against doesn't matter at all. That matters for Recruiting, but not for Gameplanning. "FALSE" |
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a Catamount 'writer'
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Post by a Catamount 'writer' on Jun 30, 2015 17:02:48 GMT -5
Well I clearly don't get on the Catamount Pride board on Delphi and have no idea what is posted there. My posts are responding to the Catamount prediction of a 2-9 Mercer outcome in 2015. I think everyone would agree that a 2-9 prediction for the Bears shows very little to no respect to what Mercer has accomplished in two seasons of football. A 2-9 2015 outcome would mean that the Bears would be worse in 2015 than they were in 2014. Maybe it could happened, but I think that prediction is more of a show of ignorance and laziness than of someone who understands the game or maybe just a homer throwing out wishes. Furman was predicted to compete for the conference title, had overwhelming injuries, and ended up 3-8. Preseason predictions don't matter. Two wins is obviously low. Just realistically you can get to three wins just by assuming Mercer beats the same three teams they beat last year. Even if you assume VMI will be a tougher team (I think they will be), ETSU shouldn't be very good. I imagine 3 wins is the lowest reasonable suggestion for Mercer. There are at least four games on the schedule (VMI, Stetson, Austin Peay, and ETSU) where Mercer will be favored. Outside of the VMI game, which I think could be close again, the remaining three games should be "heavily favored."
After reading your post, I went back to my projections, and somehow I overlooked the ETSU game. Mercer's projection total should be 3, not two. Wins should be over Stetson, VMI and ETSU.
Yes, Mercer will be improved, but every single SoCon team should be improved as well.
the other games as I see them..... AP - a toss up, but I give them the nod playing at home Tenn Tech - again will be close, but an edge to TT playing at home Wofford - another toss up, but Wofford usually wins the close ones, Terriers by 3 WCU -2 TD loss Citadel - wins come hard in Charleston, I see a 10 point win by the Bulldogs at home Chatty - Mocs by 20 Furman - Paladins by 3 Samford - Bulldogs by 10
I think the closest to a run on the Bears will be Chattanooga, but MU contained them last year -we''ll have to see what happens this year.
As you see from my projections, I don't think the Bears will be terrible, however I think my projections (preseason, mind you) are what most (other than MU fans) would project for the Bears coming into the season.
I too, hope you all come up to Cullowhee for the game, I think you'll enjoy the environment and the Catamount fans you encounter.
Win or lose, Mercer was a good addition to the SoCon.
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Post by FUBeAR on Jun 30, 2015 18:46:24 GMT -5
Furman was predicted to compete for the conference title, had overwhelming injuries, and ended up 3-8. Preseason predictions don't matter. Two wins is obviously low. Just realistically you can get to three wins just by assuming Mercer beats the same three teams they beat last year. Even if you assume VMI will be a tougher team (I think they will be), ETSU shouldn't be very good. I imagine 3 wins is the lowest reasonable suggestion for Mercer. There are at least four games on the schedule (VMI, Stetson, Austin Peay, and ETSU) where Mercer will be favored. Outside of the VMI game, which I think could be close again, the remaining three games should be "heavily favored."
After reading your post, I went back to my projections, and somehow I overlooked the ETSU game. Mercer's projection total should be 3, not two. Wins should be over Stetson, VMI and ETSU.
Yes, Mercer will be improved, but every single SoCon team should be improved as well.
the other games as I see them..... AP - a toss up, but I give them the nod playing at home Tenn Tech - again will be close, but an edge to TT playing at home Wofford - another toss up, but Wofford usually wins the close ones, Terriers by 3 WCU -2 TD loss Citadel - wins come hard in Charleston, I see a 10 point win by the Bulldogs at home Chatty - Mocs by 20 Furman - Paladins by 3 Samford - Bulldogs by 10
I think the closest to a run on the Bears will be Chattanooga, but MU contained them last year -we''ll have to see what happens this year.
As you see from my projections, I don't think the Bears will be terrible, however I think my projections (preseason, mind you) are what most (other than MU fans) would project for the Bears coming into the season.
I too, hope you all come up to Cullowhee for the game, I think you'll enjoy the environment and the Catamount fans you encounter.
Win or lose, Mercer was a good addition to the SoCon.
- In your research, did you notice the score of the 2014 game was 28-0 before APSU's entire team had gotten out of the locker room and that the halftime score was 35-6 in Mercer's favor? Most of APSU's scores (to make it a semi-respectable 49-21 final score) were against backups. APSU will be better and they will be at home, but how you can call this a "toss-up" shows you either have inside knowledge not available to the general public or you have virtually no knowledge at all. It doesn't mean you will be wrong. You may be exactly right, but you have defined no basis for your conclusion whatsoever.
"Tenn Tech - again will be close, but an edge to TT playing at home" - No clue on my end (see how easy that is to admit) about the Skyhawks. You may be exactly right and I won't argue with you because unless I have some knowledge of what I'm talking about, I don't really think it makes sense to have an opinion (again, so easy to admit).
"Wofford - another toss up, but Wofford usually wins the close ones, Terriers by 3" - see everything I said for the APSU game above & reverse it. Woffy whipped the Bears like they were Government Mules last year. What is your basis for calling this a 'toss-up?' AND....Jeez, if it's a "toss-up," why wouldn't you follow your own logic (that you used in 'projecting the Mercer @ APSU game) and go with the Home Team?
"WCU -2 TD loss" - yeah...whatever - I know y'all are proud of that win last year, so I'll leave this 'projection' be...at least I can't find any fault with your logic on this one
"Citadel - wins come hard in Charleston, I see a 10 point win by the Bulldogs at home" - You know a just-missed 2-point conversion kept this one from going to OT last year, right? And, if I'm not mistaken, El Cid lost their starting QB and 1/2 (2) of their starting DLmen, 2/3 (2) of their starting LB's, and 1/2 (2) of their starting DB's, right? They may be better, but I would think you would have to look at that and say they are somewhat rebuilding on D this year. And I've played in Charleston as a Visitor. I LOVED playing there and I bet the Bears will too. Whatever - the Bellhops may play keep-away with the Bears luggage and win...so I won't argue your conclusion on this one, but I don't understand your logic and/or your basis for projecting another score (8 points) to their victory margin this coming season
"Chatty - Mocs by 20" - OK - I know they SCALDED the mighty Cats in Cullowhee last year and they are a darn good football team (as long as Huesmann stays upright - and probably still pretty good if he doesn't) and I actually think they are going to be better this year - so, I'm assuming you are also projecting them for a 63-0 win over WCU in Chatt then, right? I'll say OK - it could happen as you say...OR Mercer could 'shock the world' as they missed doing by a fingertip last Fall.
"Furman - Paladins by 3" - OK - I think, based on FU's injuries last year and the fact they are at Home, the right 'projection' might be FU by 10+...not saying that's how I think it's gonna turn out, but it would make sense to project it that way. BTW - How about a side-bet? I'll take FU in Cullowhee on 11/7 and I'll GIVE you the 3 points you said FU is going to beat Mercer by? (GIVING your projected 8-3 team points vs. a team you project to go 2-9...If you believe in your projections, then that's like taking candy from a baby for you, isn't it?)
"Samford - Bulldogs by 10" - So...at Home last year, Sammy wins by 3...and you must know something that says they are going to come into Macon and win by another score? I know what it is...yep, that's it, they beat WCU by 2 scores last year, so that narrow 3 point win over Mercer HAD to be a(nother) fluke. Got it. "I think my projections (preseason, mind you) are what most (other than MU fans) would project for the Bears coming into the season." - I could be mistaken, of course, but I don't think you are correct here. I can tell you that's not what I'm seeing the Chatt fan base project. Nor are the FU fans. Doubtful that El Cid and VMI fans are as well. The only SoCon fan that I've seen with a 2-win projection for Mercer is YOU. I will say that, from what I see, in a general sense, the Sammy fans and the WCU fans are the only Groups that feel that Mercer is FAR inferior to their juggernauts and that may well play out in 2015. But to project as you have based on the general knowledge available to the public (last year's games, recruiting classes, etc.), well...as I said, just, inane drivel. Oh yeah - 1 more Group you did not mention that I KNOW is not projecting a 2 win season for the Bears in 2015 - Mercer's Players and Coaches. |
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a Catamount 'writer'
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Post by a Catamount 'writer' on Jun 30, 2015 20:07:41 GMT -5
After reading your post, I went back to my projections, and somehow I overlooked the ETSU game. Mercer's projection total should be 3, not two. Wins should be over Stetson, VMI and ETSU.
Yes, Mercer will be improved, but every single SoCon team should be improved as well.
the other games as I see them..... AP - a toss up, but I give them the nod playing at home Tenn Tech - again will be close, but an edge to TT playing at home Wofford - another toss up, but Wofford usually wins the close ones, Terriers by 3 WCU -2 TD loss Citadel - wins come hard in Charleston, I see a 10 point win by the Bulldogs at home Chatty - Mocs by 20 Furman - Paladins by 3 Samford - Bulldogs by 10
I think the closest to a run on the Bears will be Chattanooga, but MU contained them last year -we''ll have to see what happens this year.
As you see from my projections, I don't think the Bears will be terrible, however I think my projections (preseason, mind you) are what most (other than MU fans) would project for the Bears coming into the season.
I too, hope you all come up to Cullowhee for the game, I think you'll enjoy the environment and the Catamount fans you encounter.
Win or lose, Mercer was a good addition to the SoCon.
..........The only SoCon fan that I've seen with a 2-win projection for Mercer is YOU............. But to project as you have based on the general knowledge available to the public (last year's games, recruiting classes, etc.), well...as I said, just, inane drivel. Oh yeah - 1 more Group you did not mention that I KNOW is not projecting a 2 win season for the Bears in 2015 - Mercer's Players and Coaches.
I don't mind you categorizing my projections as inane drivel, that is your opinion. I do however mind your incorrectly stating my projection. Yes, I did originally state 2 wins, however I posted a correction and added ETSU as a win. That makes 3 wins.
"But to project as you have based on the general knowledge available to the public (last year's games, recruiting classes, etc.), well...as I said, just, inane drivel". What would you suggest I base my projections on? General knowledge, available to the public is ALL I got. Does that mean I should not post my thoughts? I'm not an insider at any institution, never clamed to be an expert, I just post about the SoCon for fun, as a hobby.
I fail to see why you take it so personal, when folks don't see the Mercer program through your eyes. Most of the folks that post on all the boards are casual fans, they pull for their team, and state their thoughts about their team based on general knowledge. If you have more than general knowledge about the Mercer team, great, that's nice for you.
I do however see that you enjoy trying to belittle anyone that doesn't state the opinion that Mercer is the second coming of ASU and GSU. Maybe they are, maybe they are not, only time will tell. Maybe Bobby Lamb will lead the Bears to the promised land, or maybe he will be fired at Mercer like he was at Furman. I don't know what the future holds, neither do you. I know you want the best for Mercer, just as I want the same for Western.
Maybe you should lighten up, and let others have their opinion, just as you have yours without making a federal case of it. What's wrong with just saying you disagree with someone else's opinion?
I hope you enjoy your trip to Cullowhee, enjoy the hospitality of the Catamount fans, but return home disappointed in the score.
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