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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 14, 2018 20:35:01 GMT -5
Let’s start this thread off with how a fan of 1-3 / 3-3 WCU thinks this game will go...
“Fortunately, along comes Mercer. We might not be able to play poorly enough to lose to them. I'll take a win & be thankful.”
Here are WCU’s results, so far, this season...
Sat, Sep 1 - vs NEWBERRY* - W - 33-26 - 1-0 (0-0)
Fri, Sep 14 - @ GARDNER-WEBB** - W - 28-10 - 2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 22 - vs VMI*** - W - 52-50 - 3-0 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 29 - @ FURMAN - L - 44-38 - 3-1 (1-1)
Sat, Oct 6 - @ SAMFORD - L - 66-28 - 3-2 (1-2)
Sat, Oct 13 - vs CHATTANOOGA - L - 26-6 3-3 (1-3)
* Newberry is a D2 Team with a 3-4 record. Their other losses are to Florida Tech, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Tusculum. They have only scored as many as 26 points in 1 other game; 27 in a win over Virginia University of Lynchburg, a ‘school’ without even a website (academic or athletic), that is not affiliated with the NCAA or the NAIA.
** Gardner-Webb is an FCS (in name only, IMO) school that plays in the Big South Conference. They are 1-6, with their only win coming over D2 Limestone, who is 0-7. Gardner-Webb has not given up less than 45 points to any FCS Team other than WCU. They have not won a D1 Football game since 2016.
*** We know VMI, who dropped a 2 point conversion pass that prevented them taking their game with WCU to OT. They have not won a Football game in over 2 years.
BTW - WCU is averaging giving up 55 points per game in their SoCon Away games.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 15, 2018 13:43:07 GMT -5
WCU’s outstanding dual-threat QB, Tyrie Adams, was injured in the Furman game 3 weeks ago. Though I have no knowledge of his exact injury, my suspicion is that he has a cracked / broken rib high on his left side or even a cracked/extremely badly bruised sternum. He did not practice the week of their game with Samford, and was “not supposed to start.” He started and played 3 series in that game. Here is the play-by-play of the plays where he either ran or passed in that game...
* 1st and 10 at WCU27 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 4 yards to the WCU31
* 2nd and 6 at WCU31 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 2 yards to the WCU33
* 3rd and 4 at WCU33 Tyrie Adams pass incomplete, PENALTY SAM roughing passer to WCU48
* 2nd and 5 at SAM47 Tyrie Adams rush for loss of 18, fumble by Tyrie Adams recovered by SAM at WCU35.
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* 2nd and 10 at WCU25 Tyrie Adams pass complete to Jordan Mathis for 8 yards to the WCU33.
* 3rd and 2 at WCU33 Tyrie Adams rush for loss of 1 yard to the WCU32
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* 1st and 10 at WCU23 Tyrie Adams rush for 9 yards to the WCU32, fumble by Tyrie Adams recovered by SAM
Mr. Adams did not re-enter the game after this fumble. So...
3 of 4 for 14 yards passing (officially 3 of 3)
-10 yards on 3 carries with 2 lost fumbles rushing
Last week against Chattanooga, Adams was listed as the backup QB, but he started the game
* 3rd and 3 at WCU37 - Tyrie Adams rush for loss of 4 yards to the WCU33, fumble by Tyrie Adams recovered by UTC
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* 1st and 10 at WCU05 Tyrie Adams pass incomplete
* 3rd and 10 at WCU05 Tyrie Adams sacked for loss of 5 yards to the WCU0 - Safety UTC
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* 2nd and 8 at WCU39 Tyrie Adams pass incomplete
* 3rd and 8 at WCU39 Tyrie Adams pass incomplete
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* 2nd and 3 at WCU47 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 6 yards to the UTC47
* 2nd and 11 at UTC48 Tyrie Adams sacked for loss of 3 yards to the WCU49
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* 1st and 10 at WCU21 Tyrie Adams pass incomplete
* 2nd and 10 at WCU21 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 6 yards to the WCU27
* 3rd and 4 at WCU27 Tyrie Adams pass intercepted - returned to the WCU4
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Mr. Adams exited the game at this point in the 2nd quarter & did not return until the 4th quarter with Chattanooga leading 26-3. To this point, his stats were...
2 for 7 with 1 INT (almost a “pick 6”) for 12 yards
-12 yards rushing on 3 carries with 1 fumble
So, since the Furman game, to this point vs. Chatt., he was...
5 for 11 passing for 26 yards with 1 INT (almost a pick 6)
-22 yards on 6 carries with 3 lost fumbles
+4 net yards + 4 turnovers on 17 ‘touches’ - This young man is INJURED. He is a GREAT Player and there is no way he would have a ‘Stat Line’ like that if he was even close to being ready to play.
BUT...let’s take a look at how he did when he checked back in to the Chatt game...
* 2nd and 10 at WCU25 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 8 yards to the WCU33
* 3rd and 2 at WCU33 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 24 yards to the UTC43
* 1st and 10 at UTC43 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 37 yards to the UTC6
* 1st and GOAL at UTC06 Tyrie Adams rush for 1 yard to the UTC5, Nate Mullen for loss of 5 yards to the UTC10 (I’m not sure what happened here - fumble, maybe?)
* 2nd and GOAL at UTC10 Tyrie Adams sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UTC17
* 3rd and GOAL at UTC17 Tyrie Adams rush for loss of 8 yards to the UTC25
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* 1st and 10 at UTC26 Tyrie Adams pass incomplete
* 2nd and 10 at UTC26 Tyrie Adams pass complete for 7 yards to the UTC19
* 3rd and 3 at UTC19 Tyrie Adams rush for 4 yards to the UTC15
* 2nd and 6 at UTC11 Tyrie Adams pass incomplete
* 3rd and 6 at UTC11 Tyrie Adams rush for 4 yards to the UTC7
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11 touches...with, finally, some positive results. He led them to a scoring drive - a Field Goal...after the game was, essentially, over.
4 of 6 for 76 yards passing
-6 yards rushing on 5 carries (I think) maybe 1 fumble, maybe not.
His Chatt stat line...
6 for 13 for 88 yards with 1 INT
-18 yards on 8 carries with 1 lost fumble and (maybe) 1 other fumble
So...since he was injured at Furman, in 2 games started, one of the most prolific Offensive Players in the SoCon is...
9 for 17 (9 for 16 officially) for 102 yards with 1 INT (almost a pick 6)
-28 yards rushing on 11 carries with 3 (or 4) Fumbles (3 lost)
74 net yards on 28 ‘touches’ with 4 turnovers - 2.6 yds/‘touch’ and 1 turnover for every 7 touches
I don’t know if Adams will play or try to play against Mercer this week, but it certainly is an interesting question...whether he can...or if he should.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 15, 2018 15:19:05 GMT -5
Here’s what WCU’s Head Coach had to say after their loss to Chattanooga...
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 15, 2018 15:23:32 GMT -5
Mercer Football Press Conference - Looking back on Yale & looking forward to WCU
BTW - Regardless of the Team you root for, if you don’t love David Durden, you don’t like college football. Not only is he already & going to be a STAR, the obvious joy with which he plays the game is just not very common anymore...and he’s funny!
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 15, 2018 19:10:40 GMT -5
Tale of the Tape - From... Mercer's Game Notes vs. WCU - 2018 MERCER FOOTBALL - MERCER BEARS(3-3, 2-1 SoCon) - WESTERN CAROLINA CATAMOUNTS(3-3, 1-3 SoCon) - October 20, 2018 l 4 p.m. ET l Macon, Ga. l Five Star Stadium (10,200)WCU's Weekly 2-Deep for Mercer - WESTERN CAROLINA FOOTBALL DEPTH CHART - WESTERN CAROLINA FOOTBALL DEPTH CHART at Mercer (Updated on October 15, 2018)
WCU has released their game notes for Saturday WESTERN CAROLINA - CATAMOUNT FOOTBALL 2018 GAME NOTES - GAME #7: WESTERN CAROLINA CATAMOUNTS (3-3, 1-3) at MERCER BEARS (3-3, 2-1) Saturday, Oct. 20, 2018 • 4:00 pm • Macon, Ga. • Five Star Stadium (10,200) - 2 different depth charts / 2 deep’s within the game notes. Only 1 discrepancy - backup Center. I’m thinking one of their veteran R-SR’s who started every game at Center last year and some this year must have sustained an injury and will be out as he is not listed at all on one of the 2-deep’s. Edited "Tale of the Tape" to reflect that he is not playing...even though he may be.  No surprises here. WCU has a large & VERY experienced Offensive Line. In Conference games, WCU's is pretty much middle-of-the-pack in most Offensive Stats categories, except they are near the bottom (#7) in Sacks Allowed. Surprising with such a big AND experienced OLine. On D, WCU is very light on experience and a bit undersized. | Category | Mercer | WCU | Avg. Size OL Starters
| 6' 3" 283 | 6' 4" 311 | | Exp. "Rating" OL Starters | 2.00 | 3.00 | Avg Size OL 2-Deep
| 6' 3" 284 | 6' 4" 304 | Exp. "Rating" OL 2-Deep
| 1.20 | 1.80
| Avg. Size DL Starters
| 6' 3" 284 | 6' 2" 253 | Exp. Rating DL Starters
| 2.83 | 1.83 | Avg Size DL 2-Deep
| 6' 3" 280 | 6' 2" 260 | Exp. "Rating" DL 2-Deep
| 2.17 | 1.17 | Avg. Size D-Front 7 Starters
| 6' 1" 247 | 6' 2" 236 | Exp. "Rating" D-Front 7 Starters
| 2.71 | 1.93 | | Avg. Size D-Front 7 2-Deep | 6' 1" 245 | 6' 1" 238 | Exp. "Rating" D-Front 7 2-Deep
| 2.29 | 1.14 | Avg. Size Offense Starters
| 6' 2" 245 | 6' 1" 249 | Exp. "Rating" Offense Starters
| 2.05 | 2.55 | Avg. Size Offense 2-Deep
| 6' 2" 244 | 6' 2" 247 | Exp. "Rating" Offense 2-Deep
| 1.41 | 1.91 | Avg. Size Defense Starters
| 6' 0" 229 | 6' 1" 215 | Exp. "Rating" Defense Starters
| 2.14 | 1.59 | Avg. Size Defense 2-Deep
| 6' 0" 228 | 6' 1" 218 | Exp. "Rating" Defense 2-Deep
| 2.02 | 1.18 | Avg. Size ALL O&D Starters
| 6' 1" 237 | 6' 1" 232 | Exp. "Rating" ALL O&D Starters
| 2.09 | 2.07 | Avg. Size ALL O&D 2-Deep
| 6' 1" 236 | 6' 1" 232 | Exp. "Rating" ALL O&D 2-Deep
| 1.72 | 1.55 | | Avg. Size Entire Roster | 6' 1" 227 | 6' 1" 222 | | Exp. "Rating" Entire Roster | 1.20 | 1.21 |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 16, 2018 19:40:47 GMT -5
The question of Adams... who the heck knows. I absolutely think he should have been in street clothes for the Samford game, and then thought he was out for Chattanooga only to see him trot out there to start (and look like he was very gun-shy from contact). If Adams is truly healthy and not worried about contact and runs the RPO like he is capable, Western can do some good things on offense (like we saw against Furman). If not, and we game plan to use Will Jones as the backup but with a different kind of offensive look, we ***could*** be ok offensively. If we go into the game like we have the last 2 weeks and don't pick the QB and match the scheme to the guy, we can look inept like the most recent outings. I don't know if the defense found anything or not - I still don't think UTC is a very good offensive football team. But Western's much-maligned defense played good enough last week to win a football game. Our offense gave the Mocs basically 9 points (a safety and then an INT that set them up at the 4). And then our offense turned the ball over at the 1 (just like against Furman) and lost something like 19 yards on 3 plays after getting inside the 5 in the 4th quarter - that made 2 trips inside the 5 resulting in a total of 3 points. As poorly as the Cats played, the Chatty game easily could have been a 17 to 17 kind of game late. Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Western's fans are reeling, the D is very young, and not knowing what we can get out of Adams makes the offensive scheme hard to predict. This could be a good game, or it could easily be Mercer by 10.5 (which is what I think I saw the line was at).
FWIW - our 2-deep is out and Adams is listed as the starter.
And another FWIW - the 2-deep now shows even more FR or RS FR starting on D (3 are true FR, 2 are RS FR). Seven of the defensive backups are FR or RS FR. So 12 of the 22 guys on the D depth chart are very young.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 16, 2018 22:12:22 GMT -5
The question of Adams... who the heck knows. I absolutely think he should have been in street clothes for the Samford game, and then thought he was out for Chattanooga only to see him trot out there to start (and look like he was very gun-shy from contact). If Adams is truly healthy and not worried about contact and runs the RPO like he is capable, Western can do some good things on offense (like we saw against Furman). If not, and we game plan to use Will Jones as the backup but with a different kind of offensive look, we ***could*** be ok offensively. If we go into the game like we have the last 2 weeks and don't pick the QB and match the scheme to the guy, we can look inept like the most recent outings. I don't know if the defense found anything or not - I still don't think UTC is a very good offensive football team. But Western's much-maligned defense played good enough last week to win a football game. Our offense gave the Mocs basically 9 points (a safety and then an INT that set them up at the 4). And then our offense turned the ball over at the 1 (just like against Furman) and lost something like 19 yards on 3 plays after getting inside the 5 in the 4th quarter - that made 2 trips inside the 5 resulting in a total of 3 points. As poorly as the Cats played, the Chatty game easily could have been a 17 to 17 kind of game late. Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Western's fans are reeling, the D is very young, and not knowing what we can get out of Adams makes the offensive scheme hard to predict. This could be a good game, or it could easily be Mercer by 10.5 (which is what I think I saw the line was at). FWIW - our 2-deep is out and Adams is listed as the starter. And another FWIW - the 2-deep now shows even more FR or RS FR starting on D (3 are true FR, 2 are RS FR). Seven of the defensive backups are FR or RS FR. So 12 of the 22 guys on the D depth chart are very young.
Well the whole Adams 'thing' will certainly be interesting. Since you, a WCU Fan, used the phrase "gun-shy," I'll make a comment that I had intended to reserve out of respect for Mr. Adams' accomplishments and abilities. Of course, the 'old' Mr. Adams could return this Saturday, but in the past 2 weeks, he's pretty much looked like he would rather have his fingernails pulled out from their roots than set up in the pocket OR run the ball. That leaves him handing off OR getting him out on the edge with immediate roll-outs, but I haven't really seen WCU try that sort of scheme in the 17 times he's set up to pass. Maybe we'll see it Saturday. He also seems to be almost 'releasing' the ball on hard contact when he's fumbled. Having cracked a rib myself and played with a flak jacket, I can confirm that it can feel OK...until you get hit in your torso...and then it feels like you may never be able to draw another breath while the intense pain radiates throughout your chest, back, and shoulders. Hard to remember to hold on to the football, when you feel like you are about to meet your maker. As stated, I have no idea what is the exact nature of Mr. Adams injury, but the flak jacket is kind of an obvious clue. Healthline.com says it takes 6 weeks for a broken rib to heal ( How long does a broken rib take to heal? ) with no additional contact on it... so this Saturday will be three weeks since he was injured in the 1st half of the Furman game. I wonder how much, whatever he has, has been able to heal up with the shots he took against Samford and Chatt. We know he was hit at least 11 times and I think 5 or 6 of those "carries" were actually sacks when he may have had his ribcage especially exposed to violent contact. Maybe it's just a bad bruise... |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 16, 2018 22:51:01 GMT -5
I have also had a cracked (but never broken) rib, so I no doubt feel for any injury he has to ribs or sternum or anything else in that general area. Adams is an unbelievable talent, and played maybe his best game of his career against Furman. So clearly whatever his injury might be (I know nothing more than you at this stage) has directly led to his last 2 performances. I would have to trust the WCU coaches, trainers, and medical staff along with Adams himself agree that he is physically ok to play. Western's offense depends on either him being the trigger man we know he can be, or making some fundamental shifts in scheme to play and get the best out of Jones.
With Tyrie already listed as the starter, I just hope he is healthy and prepared to play this weekend because Western will need a good offensive performance.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 16, 2018 23:55:18 GMT -5
I have also had a cracked (but never broken) rib, so I no doubt feel for any injury he has to ribs or sternum or anything else in that general area. Adams is an unbelievable talent, and played maybe his best game of his career against Furman. So clearly whatever his injury might be (I know nothing more than you at this stage) has directly led to his last 2 performances. I would have to trust the WCU coaches, trainers, and medical staff along with Adams himself agree that he is physically ok to play. Western's offense depends on either him being the trigger man we know he can be, or making some fundamental shifts in scheme to play and get the best out of Jones. With Tyrie already listed as the starter, I just hope he is healthy and prepared to play this weekend because Western will need a good offensive performance. I don't know, if I was a Cat fan, that I would want to have all that trust that you do...because IF he has been PHYSICALLY ready to play the past 2 weeks and generated those results, then that points to a MUCH bigger and MUCH harder to resolve issue. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 17, 2018 0:12:07 GMT -5
Let's take a look at what Mr. Massey has to say to us this week... | Team | W Carolina | Mercer | | Most Likely Score | 28 | 38 | | Win Probability | 21% | 79% |
Let's see what else Mr. Massey has to say this week about the SoCon and Mercer's other 2018 Opponents...  So...my assessment of this is that Mercer needs to (and should) win vs. WCU. Then it's back to the 'top of the list' and on the road @ Wofford. A tall task, but Furman 'showed the way' last week and Wofford should have a hard-fought contest with ETSU this week. If things go as I expect, Wofford wins that one, so ETSU will drop a bit, but then they go to Cullowhee and face WCU. Maybe Adams will heal up this week and save himself for more of a 'rivalry game' at home to give the Bucs another stiff challenge before they come into Macon on Homecoming. Meanwhile, Mercer will be @ Wofford while that contest is underway. The Bears will need another Samford-like performance to get that 1st win over Wofford, just as they did over the Bulldogs...on the road. So, assuming they find a way to get by Wofford and WCU gives ETSU a challenge and, possibly, another soul-wrenching loss following on their (FUBeAR expected) loss to Woffy, they will be fighting for their Playoff 'lives' when they come into Macon, but their confidence may be shaken. If the Bears can get by that one, it's on to Chattanooga. I think the Bears may match up well with the Mocs and they just might be able to get another one...and then come home to face Furman...in what could be a game for the SoCon Championship. Wouldn't that be FUN...for everyone except FUBeAR. |
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 17, 2018 0:29:59 GMT -5
This is what the 'Professionals' think about Mercer's game with WCU this week...
Western Carolina at Mercer - Saturday, October 20, 2018 4:00 PM
Western Carolina +10½ | Over 67
So...about 39-28 Bears - pretty darn close to Massey's prediction of 38-28.
Other games involving SoCon Teams & Mercer 2018 Opponents
The Citadel at VMI - Saturday, October 20, 2018 1:30 PM
The Citadel -8 | Over 71½
So...about 40-32 bellhops
East Tennessee St at Wofford - Saturday, October 20, 2018 1:30 PM
East Tennessee St +4 |Over 44
So...24-20 RatDogs
Samford at Furman - Saturday, October 20, 2018 2:00 PM
Samford -9 | Over 64
So...about 37-28 BullPuppies - This is a SHOCKING line to me after the way FU dismantled Wofford. FU's Pass D has been suspect...so we'll see.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Yale at Pennsylvania - Friday, October 19, 2018 7:00 PM
Yale -11 |Over 52
So...about 32-21 Bulldogs
Memphis at Missouri - Saturday, October 20, 2018 4:00 PM
Memphis +9½ | Over 74
So...about 42-33 MizzouTiggers
Jacksonville at Stetson - Saturday, October 20, 2018 6:00 PM
Jacksonville +7 | Over 57
So...32-25 Hatters
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 18, 2018 0:03:48 GMT -5
WCU's Head Coach talks about this week's matchup with Mercer and the "Quarterback Controversy" brewing in Cullowhee. Perhaps, it's not a physical problem with Tyrie Adams, after all... Says he made the decision to pull Adams in the 2nd quarter to 'spark the team.' Said he was 'getting a vibe' that led him to make that call. Says they have 2 QB's. Mentioned something about the Team having "true faith" and "going with the hot hand." Here are the stats for that "hot hand" | Passing | Comp | Att | Int | Yds | TD | Long | Sacked | | Will Jones | 3 | 5 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 29 | 1 |
| Rushing | Att | Gain | Loss | Net | TD | Long | Avg | | Will Jones | 6 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 2.0 |
11 'touches' - 80 yards - 0 TD's - 0 TurnoversI guess... |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 18, 2018 10:10:30 GMT -5
Go to about the 11:05 mark where he is asked specifically if there is a quarterback controversy. His direct reply is that Tyrie Adams is our quarterback. He then goes on to say Will Jones is good, we have confidence in him, etc. But what do you really want a coach to say? We may have to play Will Jones because of Tyrie's health, so you can't say something like "Jones isn't nearly as good and we aren't comfortable with him in there" because it would kill his confidence and the team's confidence in him. A healthy Adams is our starter, but the question remains when he will be both healthy and confident enough to play the way he needs to play to make the offense go.
Jones is the best backup we have had under Speir (actually the best we have had in a very long time), but with the offense WCU runs his time will come when Adams is gone or in relief due to an injury. So I think the feeling is they (staff and players) are comfortable if they need to play Jones. My point on here and the WCU boards has been if we play Jones, we need to change what we are trying to do offensively - which is not easy to do mid-season or week-to-week.
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Post by FUBeAR on Oct 18, 2018 10:41:52 GMT -5
Go to about the 11:05 mark where he is asked specifically if there is a quarterback controversy. His direct reply is that Tyrie Adams is our quarterback. He then goes on to say Will Jones is good, we have confidence in him, etc. But what do you really want a coach to say? We may have to play Will Jones because of Tyrie's health, so you can't say something like "Jones isn't nearly as good and we aren't comfortable with him in there" because it would kill his confidence and the team's confidence in him. A healthy Adams is our starter, but the question remains when he will be both healthy and confident enough to play the way he needs to play to make the offense go. Jones is the best backup we have had under Speir (actually the best we have had in a very long time), but with the offense WCU runs his time will come when Adams is gone or in relief due to an injury. So I think the feeling is they (staff and players) are comfortable if they need to play Jones. My point on here and the WCU boards has been if we play Jones, we need to change what we are trying to do offensively - which is not easy to do mid-season or week-to-week. Not what he said. He said, “We don’t have a Quarterback controversy. Tyrie is our Quarterback. [Long Pause] and Will is our Quarterback.” There’s more going on here than a physical issue inhibiting Mr. Adams performance. |
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Post by wcugrad95 on Oct 18, 2018 10:57:01 GMT -5
OK - I guess you know more about what is going on in Cullowhee than most everybody else. If there was a controversy, why would it not have been there BEFORE the Adams' injury? Jones really only played a few token series or when Tyrie had to go out in the first 4 games of the season (and he performed well in each appearance). They both are our quarterbacks just like the 2 guys at Mercer are both Mercer's quarterbacks. But just like at Mercer, if healthy the 1 guy would be playing most of the snaps.
The spark thing, the starting Tyrie as a surprise, etc. is all a nod to how Adams is effected by the physical issue. You don't go from playing like he did against Furman to looking like he did against Samford or Chattanooga without it being a physical and mental issue due to whatever the injury is.
Now if we were going to switch to a pro-style offense, go with 2 backs, etc. there could very well be a controversy. And there are people in WCU-land who are ready to do it. But with the current scheme, Adams is the one who would give Western the best chance to win. The move to Jones has happened in both games because Adams has coughed the ball up that I think is DIRECTLY tied to his injury.
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